to be very cautious,” said Nariman Behravesh,
chief economist at IHS Markit. “Households and
businesses have seen their finances deteriorate.
People are buying groceries on their credit cards.”
To understand the consequences of a sudden
negative shock on the economy, Behravesh
studied how many people returned to flying
after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
“It took two and a half years for airline passenger
traffic to go back to previous levels,” he said.
No longer able to campaign on a half-century
low unemployment rate, Trump has begun
to tell voters that he can quickly rebuild the
economy. He said measures like the $2.2 trillion
rescue package — with more money likely on
the way — can send employment and economic
growth to new highs.
Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster, said voters
will judge in November whether the Republican
president has delivered an economic revival,
and they will be taking a similar measure of
incumbent members of Congress.
“The fact that we’re as partisan as ever doesn’t
mean we’re destined to forgive a president who
fails on the economy,” Pollock said. “This is a man
who championed his economic abilities — and
to me there is nothing to suggest that voters will
forgive him, since he’s been front and center on
the virus response since Day One.”
If his view holds, that plays to the advantage of
likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But Biden
will have to give voters a fuller idea of how he
would boost the economy, Pollock said.
Trump has repeatedly sought to portray the
situation as the U.S. economy being sideswiped