Chapter 27 Managing International Risks 719
bre44380_ch27_707-731.indd 719 09/30/15 12:10 PM
Transaction Exposure and Economic Exposure
The exchange risk from Outland Steel’s export business is due to delays in foreign currency
payments and is therefore referred to as transaction exposure. Transaction exposure can be
easily identified and hedged. Since a 1% fall in the value of the foreign currency results in a
1% fall in Outland’s dollar receipts, for every euro or yen that Outland is owed by its custom-
ers, it needs to sell forward one euro or one yen.^15
However, Outland may still be affected by currency fluctuations even if its customers do
not owe it a cent. For example, Outland may be in competition with Swedish steel producers.
If the value of the Swedish krona falls, Outland will need to cut its prices in order to com-
pete.^16 Outland can protect itself against such an eventuality by selling the krona forward. In
this case the loss on Outland’s steel business will be offset by the profit on its forward sale.
Notice that Outland’s exposure to the krona is not limited to specific transactions that have
already been entered into. Financial managers often refer to this broader type of exposure as
economic exposure.^17 Economic exposure is less easy to measure than transaction exposure.
For example, it is clear that the value of Outland Steel is positively related to the value of the
krona, so to hedge its position it needs to borrow kronor or sell kronor forward. But in practice
it may be hard to say exactly how many kronor Outland needs to borrow.
Large Swiss companies, such as Nestlé or the Swatch Group, sell their products around
the world. Therefore, like Outland Steel, they need to manage their economic exposure. One
solution is to undertake operational hedging by balancing production closely with sales.
Look, for example, at Table 27.3, which summarizes the overseas sales and costs for a sample
of well-known Swiss companies. Notice that in the case of Nestlé, Novartis, and Roche sales
and costs are almost perfectly matched. These companies are, therefore, relatively immune
to fluctuations in the exchange rate. By contrast, in the case of Swatch and Richemont a
substantial proportion of production costs arise in Switzerland, and therefore both companies
are exposed to an appreciation of the Swiss franc.
In addition to operational hedging, companies can also control exchange rate risk by using
financial hedges. They do this by borrowing in foreign currencies, selling currency forward,
or using foreign currency derivatives such as swaps and options. For example, in 2014 Swatch
used forwards primarily to reduce its exposure to the euro and dollar. At the end of the year
these forward contracts totalled nearly 1.5 billion Swiss francs.
(^16) Of course, if purchasing power parity always held, the fall in the value of the krona would be matched by higher inflation in Sweden.
The risk for Outland is that the real value of the krona may decline, so that when measured in dollars Swedish costs are lower than pre-
viously. Unfortunately, it is much easier to hedge against a change in the nominal exchange rate than against a change in the real rate.
(^17) Financial managers also refer to translation exposure, which measures the effect of an exchange rate change on the company’s
financial statements.
U.S. Dollar Euro Other
Company Activity Sales Costs Sales Costs Sales Costs
Kuoni Travel & leisure 25% 20% 35% 30% 40% 50%
Lindt & Sprüngli Food producers 20 15 60 50 20 35
Nestlé Food producers 45 40 35 35 20 25
Novartis Pharmaceuticals 36 39 26 25 38 36
Richemont Personal goods 40 30 30 20 30 50
Roche Pharmaceuticals 41 38 21 17 38 45
Swatch Group Personal goods 40 20 40 30 20 50
Swiss Re Insurance 58 58 27 21 15 21
❱ TABLE 27.3^ The proportion of sales and costs for major Swiss companies that
derive from particular currency areas.
(^15) To put it another way, the hedge ratio is 1.0.
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Operational
hedging by auto
producers
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Operational
hedging and the
Swiss franc