Financial Times 08Apr2020

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Wednesday8 April 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 17

Opinion


Martin Wolf Economics


what’s going on. The testing process
generatesahugeamountofinformation
and the idea of the moonshot is to put it
in the public domain. That allows
chemists everywhere to look at the data
andcomeupwithideas.”
This is where the crowdsourcing
comes in. Chemists are being invited to
design compounds using those frag-
ments as a starting point, a challenge
akin to playing chemical Lego. Good
computationalandexperimentalchem-
ists, Prof Stuart says, might be able to
spot common characteristics of binding
hotspots in the Diamond data, which
mayleadtobetterdesignedmolecules.
More than 3,500 designs have already
poured in. Pharmaceutical companies
have thrown in suggestions. Submis-
sions are being “triaged” to prioritise
those with simple structures, which are
easier to manufacture at speed and

researchers contacted theDiamond
Light Source n Oxfordshirei , another
synchrotron radiation facility. Diamond
has now built a testing pipeline around
theproteasetarget.
The first step was to identify “frag-
ments”, or simple molecules, that might
attach to the protease. Many of these
candidate fragments were proposed by
the Weizmann Institute of Science ni
Israel. When one is added to the pro-
tease, synchrotron radiation can reveal
distinctive“binding”signals.Thesehint
that the fragment has managed to latch
onandthereforecouldbeausefulbuild-
ingblockinanyantiviral.
“We found about 80 fragments that
showed strong signals of binding to the
protease,” says David Stuart, director of
life sciences at Diamond and professor
of structural biology at Oxford univer-
sity. “But these are just the first hints of

protease: his enzyme is critical to thet
virus being able to make new copies of
itself. In other viruses, it is regarded as
an Achilles heel. Protease inhibitors are
known to be effective against HIV, for
example. In January, researchers at

Shanghai Tech University wereable to
find out xactly what the Sars-CoV-2e
main protease looks like structurally,
using a pure form of light called
synchrotronradiation.
When that radiation source was
temporarily unavailable, the Shanghai

crowdsource designs for a molecule in
the hope of shortcutting a process that
usually takes years. The non-profit
endeavour has yielded more than3,
designs, with one compound already
beinghailedasatherapeuticpossibility.
Covid Moonshot is managed by
PostEra, a start-up company linked to
Cambridge university that specialises in
sifting through large data sets. It is also
running acrowdfunding campaignto
raise $2m for the research. The project,
hosted at one the UK’s top science facili-
ties and using crucial input from China
and Israel, shows how scientists are
finding fresh ways to raise their collec-
tivegameagainstthisglobalenemy.
The first step to sourcing an antiviral
istoknowtheshapeofthefoe,andespe-
ciallythatofanyweakspot.Onecompo-
nent of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which
causes Covid-19, is calledthe main

A


nti-viral compounds offer
the chemical equivalent of
a rugby tackle to the
ground. They are designed
to intercept a virus before
that hostile invader can hijack cell
machinerytostartreplicating.
Now the global race is on to design a
compound that can tackleCovid-19 ntoi
submission. One notable effort is the
Covid Moonshot project: scientists
working in universities and industry
across the world have joined forces to

How to launch a moonshot against Covid-


To source an antiviral, we


need to know the shape
of the foe, especially

that of any weak spot


vulnerable developing countries. Also
crucialwillbeahalttodebt-servicepay-
mentsforthedurationofthecrisis.
Second, do no harm. The deepest
wound would come from destroying the
trading system completely. That would
make it vastly more difficult to restore
globalprosperityafterthecrisisisover.
Third, abandon outworn shibboleths.
Already governments have given up old
fiscalrules,andrightlyso.Centralbanks
must also do whatever it takes. This
meansmonetary financing f govern-o
ments. Central banks pretend that what
they are doing is reversible and so is not
monetary financing. If that helps them
act, that is fine, even if it is probably
untrue. In the eurozone, they talk much
of eurobonds. But the support that mat-
ters will have to come from the
European Central Bank. There is no

if there is to be a future worth having.
In considering what is to be done to
manage the devastating economic
impact,beyondreopeningeconomiesas
swiftly as it is reasonably safe to do so,
therearethreeessentialconsiderations.
First, protect the weak, both within
countries and among them. A disease
threatens all. How one responds is a
measure of ourethical standards. It is
essential to ensure basic economic secu-
rity for everybody if they are unable to
work. A temporary universal basic
income is one obvious option. Similarly
and crucially, ways must be found to
support vulnerable economies. There
are many radical possibilities. One is a
huge new issuance f the IMF’s Specialo
Drawing Rights, with donation by
high-income countries of their share
into a trust for the benefit of the most

to avoid having to employ such heavy-
handed interventions again. They do
not have much time to do so: a few
months, no more. Otherwise, they may
havenochoicebuttoimitateSweden.
Making the lockdowns pay, to allow
us to live without them, is the essential
first step. The second step is minimising
economic damage. Here the focus must
be on today, not on the high public debt
and other burdens of the future. Suffi-
cient unto the day is the evil thereof. As
in war, one must survive the present

globally, either. Many emerging and
developing countries are being hit by
collapsing external demand, falling
commodity prices and unprecedented
capital flight, while also having to man-
age the pandemic with highly inade-
quate health systems. Lockdowns are
especially brutal in countries with lim-
ited or no welfare states and vast num-
bersofpeoplewhosubsistondailyearn-
ingsfromafragileinformaleconomy.
It is right to ask whether such eco-
nomic carnage can be justified. Among
high-income countries,Sweden ash
taken the least restrictive approach. A
comparison with Norway makes the
trade-offclear:unemploymenthasrisen
in Sweden, too, but by far less than in its
neighbour; yet the number of deaths is
also higherin Sweden. We should be
gratefulfortheSwedishexperiment.We
canlearnfromit,onewayortheother.
My view, however, in line with that of
health expertsandleading economists,
is that the lockdowns are necessary to
save health systems from collapse and
get the disease under control. But they
have to be brief. It is impossible to keep
people locked up indefinitely, without
huge personal suffering and social and
economic damage. This is obviously
true where governments are unable to
offer the costly social protection meas-
uresfeasibleinhigh-incomecountries.
Lockdowns must be a short breathing
space before we move to what a group of
German experts alls a “risk-adaptedc
strategy”. During the lockdowns, gov-
ernments must dowhatever is needed

A


journeyofathousandmiles
begins with a single step.
The journey through this
pandemic is going to be
long and hard. We cannot
know where it will end, although it is
hard not tospeculate. What we must do
instead is focus on the steps right ahead
if we are to avoid falling off our narrow
path into mass deaths on one side, or
economicdevastationontheother.Ifwe
do not avoid these calamities in the near
future, we riskchaos head. Even if wea
domanagetodoso,wewillnotreturnto
the normality we took for granted until
recently. For that, we must at least wait
for a cure or vaccine. The economic and
socialdamagewilllastevenlonger.
Analysis by theOECD lluminates thei
economic disruption ahead. This is no
ordinary recession or even depression,
caused by a collapse in demand. Eco-
nomic activity is being switched off,
partly because people fear contact and
partly because governments have told
them to stay at home. The immediate
impact of these actions could be a
reduction in gross domestic product in
the Group of Seven leading high-income
countriesofbetween20and30percent.
Every month that large parts of our
economies stay closed, annual growth
mightfallby2percentagepoints.
Moreover, the costs are unequally
shared. Unskilled workers suffer worst
from loss of jobs. People and businesses
abletoworkonline,stayworking.Those
thatcannotdoso,donot.(Seecharts.)
The costs are not evenly shared

We must focus


attention on


our next steps


Making the quarantines
pay, to allow us to live

without them, is the


essential first move


Source: OECD Source: FT analysis of official figures Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Closure of services drives collapse
in output
Potential initial impact on activity of shutdowns
(by sector,  of GDP)

Coronavirus hits US middle and
low-skilled jobs harder
Cumulative change in jobs since Jan  (millions)

Sweden’s more relaxed approach means
fewer are unemployed
Cumulative unemployment benefit claims
( of working age population)

-

-

-

-

-

-



Canada

US
France

Italy
UK

Germany
Japan
















Jan  Apr  -

-









  

High-skilled

Middle-skilled

Low-skilled

Mar 
Norwegian
national
lockdown

Norway

Sweden

Other personal
services

Professional & real
estate services

Hotels, restaurants
& air travel

Retail & wholesale
trade

Construction

Transport
manufacturing

alternative. Nobody should care. There
are ways to manage the consequences.
Even“helicopter money” ight well bem
fullyjustifiableinsuchadeepcrisis.
More painful choices than these arise.
An emergency like this will be used by
would-be tyrants to strengthen their
grip. At the same time, some freedoms
will have to be given up, temporarily.
Managing such painful trade-offs
depends on high levels of trust and
trustworthiness, hardly salient charac-
teristics of today’s democracies. But the
test is now. Governments that fail to
confront these challenges risk collapse.
Political systems that produce such gov-
ernments risk losing their legitimacy.
We have to get these next steps right.
Everythingdependsonourdoingso.

[email protected]

The lockdowns are necessary
to get the disease under control,

but they must be brief


people infected and dying from the
virus. Diverse responses in that case
could bring about a collapse in confi-
dence. So it is easy to see why govern-
ments in Europe had a strong incentive
to copy the policies adopted by the
countrieshitfirstbythepandemic,even
while they remained unconvinced that
theywerethebestapproachespossible.
Sweden is now the only EU govern-
ment that has decided to reject the pol-
icy of “social distancing” and economic
lockdown. As such, it is the best demon-
stration of the risks for contrarians.
“People are starting to ask: ‘Are others
stupid and paranoid? Or is Sweden
doing wrong?’” Orla Vigso, a professor
of crisis communications at the Gothen-
burg university,told The Guardian. If
Swedishhospitalsnowbecomeoverbur-
dened and the number of deaths starts
rising, the government in Stockholm
will pay a higher political price than its
peers in the EU, as a dissenter from the
acceptedview.

must show readiness to take extraordi-
nary measures, even if they are not cer-
tain to work. At the same time, they
want to avoid taking a course of action
that could, in retrospect, be questioned
by citizens who are well aware of what is
beingdoneinothercountries.
Doing as others do becomes critically
important to reassure the public that
the situation is under control — and to
persuade them of the necessity of tay-s
ing home, wearing masks, closing busi-
nesses and patiently complying with
whateverotherpoliciesareinplace.
Imagine for a moment that half the
countries in Europe had decided to go
intolockdown,whiletheotherschoseto
avoid strict measures. The political
pressure on governments on both sides
to change course would have been
almost unbearable. Imagine then that
some of the democratic governments
had introduced a state of emergency
and others had not, while declaring
comparable figures for numbers of

the other hand, deals with outcomes we
cannotpredictorneversawcoming.
TheCovid-19pandemichasbeensuch
a moment of unmeasurable uncer-
tainty. In the early stages of the crisis,
when mass testing was not possible,
governments could not weigh the costs
and benefits of policies such as social

distancing or economic shutdowns. In
this scenario, the most responsible
course of action is to assume the worst
and take the most risk-averse position.
Managing risk is the usual business of
democratic governments.Dealing with
uncertaintyisaverydifferentgame.
Amid such uncertainty, governments

paradox of the European response to
thecoronavirusoutbreak.Thecrisishas
forcedsocietiestoretreattonationalism
rather than co-operate with each other.
Yet, at the same time, governments
show unlimited enthusiasm for copying
basically the same package of policies to
halt the disease transmission — despite
the fact that social traditions and the
state of public health systems are very
differentineachEUmemberstate.
Why are governments that were
unwilling to co-operate in the initial
stages of the crisis so eager to adopt the
same policy approaches now? heT
answermightbeinthesharpdistinction
between politics in a moment of uncer-
tainty and the politics of risk, made by
the American economist Frank Knight
in his 1921 work,Risk, Uncertainty and
Profit. Knight posited that, while the
futureisinprincipleunknowable,riskis
still measurable. It can be estimated
using data, provided similar situations
have happened before. Uncertainty, on

D


oing as others do can save
your life. In 2015, gunmen
from the al-Shabaab mili-
tant groupstormed a col-
lege in Kenya. They took
students hostage, showing mercy only
to those who could prove they were
Muslims by reciting a key tract from the
Koran.Thosewhocouldnotwereshot.
One Christian student watched what
was happening to her fellow students
and quickly memorised the tract. As
Michelle Baddeleyargues inCopycats
and Contrarians, the girl “saved her own
life through social learning, by gather-
ing information about others’ choices
andtheirconsequences”.
Thiscopycatlogicexplainsthecentral

Copycat action on coronavirus will only take countries so far


A variety of timings and
approaches when deciding

to end restrictions will be a


sign of policy health


Yetalthoughcopycatlogichasworked
reasonably well while national govern-
ments have lacked reliable information
about the coronavirus crisis and its
effects on economies, the situation may
soon change. Continuing to follow the
herd while policymakers start to com-
pile more information about the spread
of Covid-19 in their own countries (in
other words, in a situation where
unmeasurable uncertainty is replaced
byordinaryrisk)willbeamistake.
When it comes to deciding when and
how nations should start to loosen strict
restrictions and how they will compen-
sate businesses and workers — France,
Spain and Italy are beginning to
consider those options now, as their
infection curves plateau — a variety of
timings and approaches will be a sign of
policyhealth.

The writer is chairman of the Centre for
Liberal Strategies in Sofia and fellow at the
Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna

Ivan
Krastev

scale.Enamine, a chemical company in
Kyiv, is on standby to make candidate
compoundsformoreadvancedtesting.
Prof Stuart, whose usual research
relates to the picornaviruses that cause
diseasesincludingfoot-and-mouth,says
Diamond has suspended all non-Covid
researchatitsfacility.“You’vejustgotto
try and hope you can do something that
turns out to be useful.”He says: “This
moonshot is allowing people to come
togetherinaveryopenway.”
The ambition is to have several
candidatecompoundswithinmonths.A
suite of potential antivirals — in case the
virus develops resistance to a single
treatment — would buy time for a
vaccine, which is expected to take at
least a year. Covid-19 may yet succumb
tothechemicalwisdomofcrowds.

The writer is a science commentator

SCIENCE


Anjana


Ahuja


APRIL 8 2020 Section:Features Time: 7/4/2020- 18:30 User:alistair.hayes Page Name:COMMENT USA, Part,Page,Edition:EUR, 17, 1

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