Financial Times 08Apr2020

(Amelia) #1

Wednesday8 April 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 9


CO M PA N I E S & M A R K E T S


N E I L H U M E
N AT U R A L R E S O U R C E S E D I TO R


Supply cuts affecting about one-fifth of
the global mining industry have offset a
collapse in demand due to the corona-
virus outbreak, bolstering prices that
have been hit hard in the past month.


About 15 per cent of the world’s copper
mines and 20 per cent of zinc mines are
now offline or operating at reduced
capacity, according to UBS analysts who
say disruptions could stop industrial
metals from plumbing the depths seen
during the global financial crisis.
In 2008, copper sank below $3,000 a
tonne whereas now it trades close to
$4,500. Zinc and aluminium prices are
also well above their 2008 nadirs.
“The duration and therefore the total
amount of lost supply in 2020 is unclear,
but in our view increasing supply dis-
ruption will act as an important offset to
demand weakness, potentially limiting
commodity price downside,” said
analyst Daniel Major at UBS.
Mexico became the latest country to
impose restrictions on the mining
industry when it ordered last week the
closure of non-essential businesses until


the end of April. The country accounts
for 3 per cent of global copper produc-
tion and 6 per cent of zinc production.
Analysts expect supply disruptions to
increase in the next month as govern-
ments tighten restrictions while pro-
ducers halt mining at marginal opera-
tions to preserve cash. Copper has fallen
20 per cent this year while zinc and alu-
minium are both down 18 per cent.
But supply is still likely to outstrip
demand, setting up a challenging year
for the industry. “The demand destruc-

tion of 156,000 [tonnes] of copper per
week far outweighs the current 60,
of Covid-19-related supply disruptions,”
said Tyler Broda, an analyst at RBC Cap-
ital Markets. “Metals like aluminium,
where it is costly to shut down produc-
tion, face an even worse dynamic.”
If the global economy contracts 1.
per cent in 2020, Morgan Stanley
estimates that demand for aluminium,
which counts the car industry as one of
its biggest consumers, will fall almost 12
per cent. That would generate “an
inventory overhang that could depress
price for several years”, said the bank’s
analyst, Susan Bates.
However, some of the most pessimis-
tic demand scenarios may not material-
ise. China, the world’s biggest consumer
of industrial metals, is returning to nor-
mal and an infrastructure-led recovery
could help mitigate the worst effects of
the downturn in the rest of the world.
“In addition, the rapid global policy
response already seen, and possible
additional measures — such as the $2tn
proposed infrastructure package in the
US — could drive a more rapid upturn in
metals demand and prices than broader
growth suggests,” said Ms Bates.

Commodities


Mining cutbacks help support metals


prices as industrial demand collapses


P H I L I P STA F F O R D

The New York Stock Exchange is plan-
ning to review the effectiveness of
marketwide systems designed to damp
extreme volatility after circuit-
breakers were tripped several times
last month during a stampede from
risky assets.

US markets saw a series of 15-minute
halts to trading in mid-March following
big drops in the S&P 500 index as inves-
tors spooked by the spread of coronavi-
rus scrambled to dump positions.
It was the first time that such protec-
tions had been activated since the
system was revamped in 2012 and most
were tripped moments after the open-
ing bell.
Any changes to the system would
have to be agreed with rival exchange
groups such as Nasdaq and CBOE Global
Markets.
Under the existing system, the S&P
500 can drop as much as 7 per cent from
the previous day’s close before a halt is
triggered.
Further circuit-breakers kick in at 13
per cent and 20 per cent falls to guard
against sharp declines that “may

exhaust market liquidity”, according to
the NYSE.
Stacey Cunningham, president of the
exchange, told the Financial Times that
one area of focus would be the settings
for circuit-breakers for futures on the
index, which can move by a maximum
of 5 per cent in either direction.
That discrepancy between permissi-
ble moves in the futures and the cash

market, she said, could potentially
exacerbate pressure on stocks in the
opening minutes. “Having the trigger
right after the open, when there wasn’t
new news in those few seconds to min-
utes, is certainly something we’re going
to explore, to see if we can further
improve the way the marketwide
circuit-breakers work,” she said.
Ms Cunningham noted that the
exchange traded fund linked to the S&P
500, typically one of the most traded

daily securities in US markets, had con-
tinued to trade when the out-of-hours
futures markets hit their limits.
The security, known as the SPDR, had
traded much lower.
“It turned out that the ETF was a very
good indicator of the overall value of the
index. It became a price discovery
mechanism on its own,” she said.
The coronavirus crisis forced the
NYSE to close its famous trading floor at
11 Wall Street for the first time in its 228-
year history.
Ms Cunningham said the overall mar-
ket quality had been good, although
“not as good as with people involved”.
She also defended the decision not to
close the floor earlier.For Ms Cunning-
ham, who started on the NYSE floor 25
years ago, the decision was “not one we
took lightly”.
Many floor traders were patriotic and
had wanted it to stay open, she added.
“It’s also the symbolic nature of the
trading floor that’s important. Having
the floor open for business and running
is an important message,” she said.“The
floor will definitely open again. We’re
going to provide full service, once we
can do so safely.”

Equities


NYSE to review circuit-breaker system


after stampedes to dump risky assets


‘Having the trigger right


after the open is
certainly something

we’re going to explore’


Mexico is among the countries that
have imposed restrictions on mining

J O E R E N N I S O N


On a sunny day in May 2012, Ford
employees dressed in a mix of blue and
white T-shirts gathered on the lawn
outside the company’s headquarters in
Dearborn, Michigan, celebrating the
restoration of its investment grade
credit rating by arranging themselves to
form the iconic oval logo.
Ford had beendowngraded evens
years earlier, along with General
Motors, in what were the biggest ever
demotions to the junk market in terms
of bonds outstanding.
Ford’s elaborate celebration in 2012
signified the importance of a top-quality
rating to the company — a point it
reiterated on earnings calls with inves-
tors over the following eight years.
“We remain committed to maintain-
ing a strong balance sheet and holding
investment grade credit ratings,” Tim
Stone, chief financial officer, said on the
company’s fourth-quarter earnings call
in February, adding that Ford would
be in good shape to tackle the next
recession.
Little did he know it would arrive so
soon. The onset of Covid-19 has rup-


tured the global economy with Ford
closing most of its global plants, threat-
ening an already ailing turnround
effort launched by chief executive Jim
Hackett.
Downgrades by S&P and Moody’s this
month stripped the company of its
investment grade status once again,
sending 36bn of debt back into junk$
territory.
At the same time, the cuts have fed
fears over the effects of a series of fallen
angels, the moniker given to companies
that lose their investment grade title.
Some investors are bound by require-
ments to hold only higher rated debt, as
exemplified by Western Asset, one of
the biggest bond managers in the US.
Western has sought toavoid fire salea
by requesting more time to sell bonds
issued by Occidental Petroleum, after
the oil company wascut o junk lastt
month.
Such rapid selling by investors has
raised concerns that fallen angels could
exacerbate strains in corporate bond
markets.
“It is shocking a lot of people,” said
Hans Mikkelsen, a strategist at Bank of
America. “We have been pushed into a
recession at a speed we have never seen
before. Everyone is scrambling. Rating
agencies are downgrading companies in
a matter of weeks when it would usually
take months.”
A record $90bn of debt fell to junk sta-

tus in March, according to Deutsche
Bank analysts. BofA warns that the total
for the year could reach$200bn.
Investors appear to be set for even
higher tallies. At the end of last week,
$360bn of triple B rated bonds, the
lowest rung of investment grade, were
trading with yields comparable to that
of double B rated debt.
Finding buyers for fallen angels could
be challenging. The $6.7tn investment
grade bond market is far larger than
the $1.2tn high-yield bond market, as
measured by indices produced by Ice
Data Services.
Moreover, for the next month, the
challenge may have been made harder
by decisions from key index providers.
Bloomberg operates what is widely
considered to be the benchmark invest-
ment grade bond index and booted out
issuers like Ford, Occidental and Macy’s
at the turn of this month.
But Ice, which runs a widely tracked
high-yield bond index, has chosen to
wait a month before including the new-
comers in an attempt to reduce friction
while price movements remain ele-
vated.
That means fund managers specialis-
ing in high-yield bonds will have to
make a decision about whether to stray
from the index to buy the debt before
the month is up.
“This could lead to meaningful dis-
persion in returns between managers,”

said John McClain, a portfolio manager
at Diamond Hill Capital Management.
The fallen angels are changing the
composition of the market in other ways
too.
Some of the newcomers, such asKraft
Heinz, have issued very long-term debt,
for example, which could be hard to
digest for investors more accustomed to
lending money for shorter periods of
time. The average time to maturity of
bonds in the junk market has risen from
5.8 years in February to 6.1, according to
Ice, even before the inclusion of some of
the longer-dated debt from Ford.
It is hard to disentangle changes in
price caused by fallen angels from the
broader market movements over the
past month.
Ford’s debt has largely risen in price
since it was downgraded a week ago, but
so has the rest of the market.
Kraft Heinz’s 30-year bonds have also
performed well since their downgrade
in February, said Kevin Lorenz, a portfo-
lio manager at asset manager Nuveen,
helped by the company’s position in a
relatively defensive sector.
“I think every day, everyone needs to
reorient themselves to what is happen-
ing as a result of the pandemic and its
ramifications,” he said. “Investors
should be braced for continued
volatility in the market.”
Additional reporting by Claire Bushey in
Chicago

Pandemic has plunged the


debt of many US blue-chip


companies into junk territory


‘We have
been

pushed into
a recession

at a speed
we have

never seen
before’

Ford has been
downgraded by
Moody’s and
S&P this month
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP

Fixed income. redit downgradesC


Bond investors rattled by


flood of fallen angels


R I C H A R D H E N D E R S O N

Big US companies will spend half as
much buying back their own stock this
year compared with 2019, Goldman
Sachs analysts predict, weakening a
vital prop for the market as companies
shore up their balance sheets.
Share repurchases for companies in
the benchmark S&P 500 index will hit
$371bn by the end of the year, 50 per
cent lower than the $730bn spent last
year,Goldmantold clients on Friday —
releasing its estimate on Monday.
David Kostin, the investment bank’s
chief US equity strategist, said 51 com-
panies had suspended their share repur-
chases since the beginning of March,
equivalent to 27 per cent of aggregate
buybacks last year.
“A spate of recent suspensions, esca-
lating employee lay-offs and increasing
political and social pressure will curtail
buyback spending, which remains his-
torically elevated following the passage
of corporate tax reform,” Mr Kostin
wrote in a research note.
This reduced demand “from the prin-
cipal buyer of shares during the past
decade”, he added, would lead to wider
trading ranges, less support for the
market during sell-offs and slower
growth in earnings per share.
A drop in spending on buybacks will
add further pressure on a market grap-

pling with the fallout of coronavirus on
the global economy.
Share buybacks have boomed since
the financial crisis and reached a record
$806bn in 2018, the first year of the cor-
porate tax cuts ushered in by President
Donald Trump, helping to boost the
stock market to record highs.
Apple, the biggest spender in recent
years, typically buys more than $10bn
of its shares every quarter.
The repurchases have attracted the
attention of politicians. Mr Trump
expressed dismay that companies had
used the tax cut to buy back stock.
Joe Biden, frontrunner for the Demo-
cratic nomination in this year’s presi-
dential elections, last month called on
US chief executives to “publicly commit
now to not buying back their company’s
stock” for a year.
Bernie Sanders, his party opponent,
wrote an opinion article last year calling
for curbs on buybacks.
The US government’s $2tn emergency
stimulusbans companies that take a
loan under the package from paying a
dividend or conducting share buybacks
for 12 months until after the debt is
repaid. Aircraft maker Boeing and air-
line Delta are among big companies to
have announced halts to their share
repurchases and dividends.
A group of eight big US banks has also
paused share buybacks. Thisincludes
four of the biggest spenders onbuy-
backs in the S&P 500 — Bank of Amer-
ica, JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo.

Equities


US stocks face


more pressure


as buybacks


set to halve


‘A spate of suspensions,


employee lay-offs and
political pressure will

curtail buyback spending’


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Coronavirus sparks rise
in downgrades to junk
Developed market US dollar
fallen angels tally

Sources: Deutsche; Ice indices















Jan  Mar

US dollar fallen angels rise
Over the previous  months as a 
of the total triple B debt outstanding









    



APRIL 8 2020 Section:Markets Time: 4/20207/ - 18:04 User:stephen.smith Page Name:MARKETS1, Part,Page,Edition:EUR , 9, 1

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