A14 eZ su THE WASHINGTON POST.FRIDAy, MARCH 27 , 2020
the coronavirus pandemic
the economic price of fighting
the virus may be worse than the
virus itself.
The main opposition, the far-
right League, has its stronghold
in the north, the area hit hardest
by the virus. League regional
governors in the north have ac-
cused C onte of ordering the l ock-
down too late and of initially
allowing too many loopholes.
Politically, that means Conte
does not face much pressure to
relieve the restrictions prema-
turely. But Italians, under de fac-
to house arrest f or more than t wo
weeks, naturally w ant to get back
to normal life.
“If at t he f irst signs o f improve-
ment we break ranks, we could
have another peak on our hands
in two to four weeks,” said Paolo
Setti Carraro, an Italian doctor
who was also involved in the
global response to Ebola.
The temptation to get out of
the house at the first chance was
evident last weekend in To kyo,
where c herry blossoms were
blooming, as people packed to-
gether in parks and restaurants,
disregarding the p rotocols on so-
cial distancing. Japan has had a
far-smaller outbreak than Italy,
but experts there worried that
the impulse among people to
socialize as they previously did
could allow the virus to spread
rapidly.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong, Singa-
pore and Ta iwan appeared to
have controlled the spread of the
virus, but they are again experi-
encing an increase in infections.
“The risk is for the emotional
feeling to prevail and to have
people say, ‘ Things a re going bet-
ter, let’s get rid of all this an-
guish,’ ” said Paolo Cruciani, a
retired professor of psychology
and former deputy head of the
psychologists’ association in Ita-
ly’s Lazio region. “Then, boom,
the virus comes back. The way to
prevent this is a carefully consid-
ered mass communication to
strengthen their rational vision.
It’s a delicate moment: People
can’t wait for all of this to end.”
[email protected]nationwide sense of horror has
helped with the enforcement of
the restrictions. The lockdown
has had widespread support: Be-
tween 76 and 90 percent a pprove
of the measures, according to
various polls.
And although some Italian
politicians, such as the mayor of
milan, encouraged people in the
early days of the outbreak to stay
calm and socialize responsibly,
that messaging has s topped cold.
Italian politicians have not em-
braced Trump’s argument thatappeared to slow, with cases
growing day-on-day this week at
about 8 percent, compared with
20 percent two weeks ago. But
the daily toll remains staggering.
The Italian government on
Thursday reported that 662 peo-
ple had died in the previous
24 h ours. The reuters news agen-
cy suggested that the govern-
ment had omitted 50 deaths in
one region and that the count
should be higher.
Although most o f those d eaths
have taken place in the north, aaccurately how it is changing.
“You aggressively sample a big
part of the population in a few
infected areas” before you can
consider changing the l ockdown,
Crisanti said. “Then, you maybe
start to open some factories, test
all people. I don’t t hink the lifting
of the quarantine will be in one
go.”
In the 4^1 / 2 weeks since Italy
detected the first signs of the
outbreak, the country has lost
more than 8,000 people to the
virus. The rate of spread hasmonths.
Even the size of Italy’s out-
break is unknown. Government
officials and experts have said
that because of limitations on
testing, the spread of the virus
could be s ignificantly l arger than
the o fficial data suggests. Andrea
Crisanti, a virologist advising the
Veneto region, said the country
would have to conduct granular
testing for the virus — in several
geographic areas — to better
gauge the true size of the out-
break and then determine morelockdown. But it is now at the
forefront in making a more deli-
cate calculation: figuring out how
long the restrictions should last.
“If we loosen [restrictions] too
early, we r isk to jeopardize a ll the
results,” said roberto Burioni, a
professor of microbiology and
virology at V ita-Salute S an raffa-
ele University in milan. “my rec-
ommendation is: Don’t go after
wishful t hinking. You h ave to face
the reality” of an extended lock-
down.
officially, Italy’s lockdown —
which restricts people’s move-
ment outside their homes and
includes the closure of restau-
rants and retail stores — is sup-
posed to end on April 3. But the
government h as signaled t hat the
measures will surely be extend-
ed, s omething o f little surprise to
most people in the country.
As a way to guard against
potential restlessness, Prime
minister Giuseppe Conte said
this week that he is increasing
fines, from 400 euros to 3,
(about $440 to $ 3,300), for peo-
ple who leave their apartments
or houses without a valid reason.
fines are steeper still for people
in vehicles who violate the lock-
down. People who go outside
after t esting positive for the coro-
navirus could face up t o five years
in prison.
Conte did not specify how long
the lockdown might last, al-
though he batted down rumors
in the Italian news media that it
might be extended through the
end of July.
“We are actually confident
that well before this hypothetical
deadline, we can truly go back to
our life habits,” he said.
Some virologists say that rath-
er than an end date, Italy and
other countries will have to re-
lease the brakes gradually — as
China is trying to do. Still, there
are many uncertainties that
could influence when to begin
easing restrictions, including
whether the virus will wane dur-
ing hotter and more humid
ItAly from A
Warnings in Italy that easing rules could imperil progress
ClaudIo furlan/laPresse/assoCIated Press
A coffin is carried to wait with others at a church in seriate to be taken to a crematory. Although most of Italy’s coronavirus deaths have
been in the north, the lockdown has wide support across the country: Between 76 and 90 percent approve of the measures, polls show.based global health expert with
the New America organization.
But masks, protective gear and
other medical equipment re-
main in critically short supply in
some parts of the country, and
with coronavirus infections in-
creasing at the rate of more than
10,000 a day, the United States
looks set to become the world
epicenter of the covid-19 disease.
“overall it looks like the Unit-
ed States is on the path for
becoming the most endemic
country for the coronavirus,
more than China, more than
Italy, more than any other coun-
try,” he said.
As other countries impose
drastic lockdowns and stay-at-
home orders, the Trump admin-
istration is seen by many over-
seas as an outlier.
“Even India, with a population
of 1.3 billion, is going into lock-
down. Ye t at the leadership level,
the United States is talking about
opening up the country when it
hasn’t even fully locked down,”
rahim said.
“Very few countries today see
the U.S. as part of the solution,
whereas in the past it was the
natural point o f comparison, or a
country to imitate,” said Luis
rubio, head of the mexican
Council on foreign relations.
moreover, he said, Trump’s
sometimes dismissive approach
to the coronavirus may be en-
couraging other populist leaders
who remain resistant to taking
harsh and economically difficult
measures to confront the epi-
demic. Brazilian President Jair
Bolsonaro called lockdowns or-
dered by his country’s mayors a
“crime” and invoked Trump in
comments minimizing the seri-
ousness of the coronavirus.
mexican President Andrés
manuel López obrador is anoth-
er leader who has been encour-
aged by Trump’s cavalier ap-
proach, rubio said.
“The U.S. administration also
prolonged, rather than taking
the bull by the horns. It wasted
several days or weeks and
showed the way to many people,
like President López obrador,
that it was possible to pretend it
wasn’t going to hurt,” he said.
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]birnbaum reported from brussels.
deYoung reported from Washington.
Max bearak in nairobi, robyn dixon
in Moscow, shibani Mahtani in Hong
Kong and Mary beth sheridan in
Mexico contributed to this report.has reported counting 110 such
cases from russian sources be-
tween Jan. 22 and march 19.
meanwhile, the chaotic Amer-
ican response to the spread of
the virus in the United States is
undermining its reputation as a
global leader in science and tech-
nology. TV footage of New York-
ers queuing in the cold f or scarce
virus tests has been broadcast
worldwide, accentuating thesense that America can’t m anage
its own coronavirus e pidemic, let
alone lead other countries out of
theirs.
American enemies h ave seized
the opportunity to take digs.
“Spend it on yourself,” said Iran’s
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, as he rejected an
offer of U.S. assistance to help
Iran fight the coronavirus. “You
have shortages yourself.”
The United States has now
expanded the availability of test-
ing, said Ta ufiq rahim, a Dubai-and Southeast Asia. D elivery of
the pledged donations, to the
extent it has taken place, has
remained largely i nvisible on the
world stage, however.
Pompeo announced Thursday
an additional $110 m illion in U.S.
government disaster assistance,
which he said would go to a total
of “up to 64 of the most at-risk
countries,” and $64 million to
assist the United Nations HighCommissioner for r efugees in its
pandemic response.
Both russia and China have
also b een promoting disinforma-
tion about the coronavirus,
countering the language of top
American officials such as
Trump and Pompeo that the
coronavirus is a Chinese virus by
advancing conspiracy theories,
such as that the pathogen may
have been developed in Ameri-
can laboratories, said Braw. A
European task force set up to
combat Kremlin disinformationItaly earlier this week. But Ital-
ian officials told Italian media
that the offer was unsolicited
and the equipment and medicine
sent didn’t match Italy’s needs.
U.S. officials say they have
offered assistance. U.S. troops
based in Italy helped send and
deliver hospital beds, mattress-
es, stretchers and other equip-
ment to the Italian province of
Lombardy, the ground zero of
Italy’s coronavirus crisis.
In late January, when China’s
outbreak was at its peak, the U.S.
government said it was sending
more than 17 tons of medical
equipment there. In early febru-
ary, Pompeo announced an addi-
tional $100 million in assistance
“to China.”
The State Department modi-
fied that in later statements,
saying the aid would go to high-
risk and developing countries,
with no mention of China. A
Chinese official last week said
that China had received “not $1”
from the United States.
Some of the $100 million has
been committed to the World
Health organization and other
multilateral institutions, s aid
Pooja Jhunjhunwala, acting
spokeswoman for U SAID.
The agency has designated 25
countries to receive direct assis-
tance, most of them in Centralstanding in the world that allows
us to do that. I fear that’s not
happening today.”
America’s disengagement on
the coronavirus fight is part of a
broader retreat from the world.
from the Paris climate change
accord to multiple trade agree-
ments, the Trump administra-
tion has unwound decades of
U.S. leadership on a range of
issues.
But such is the severity of this
crisis that America’s absence
could permanently affect its
standing, ceding ground to an
ascendant China in the great
game of global influence, ana-
lysts said.
“I do wonder whether this
really is an inflection point in the
international system,” s aid Nath-
alie Tocci, the head of the Italian
Institute of International Affairs
and a former foreign policy ad-
viser to senior European Union
leaders.
“Here in Italy it is going to
change for good the perception
of who is leading in the world,
and it’s not the United States,”
she said. “It’s so strong what is
happening. It’s so powerful and
it’s so traumatic. The emotions
that it ignites today are going to
be engraved in the national nar-
rative.”
There’s an element of oppor-
tunism in some of the gestures
by the United States’ rivals. Hua-
wei, the Chinese technology gi-
ant accused by the United States
of acting as a branch of China’s
intelligence agencies, has seized
the opportunity to promote its
brand to stricken Europeans at a
time when their governments
are weighing whether to adopt
its high-speed 5G cellular net-
work, despite U.S. requests not t o
do so.
The company has delivered
thousands of masks and other
equipment bearing the Huawei
logo to hard-hit countries, which
may help win support for its 5G
network o nce the crisis subsides.
“China is sending medical
supplies, but is it a good Samari-
tan or is it simply doing it to
exploit tensions in the Western
alliance?” asked Braw. “It’s very
opportunistic and it’s clear Chi-
na senses a vacuum.
“But unless the Trump admin-
istration ups its game, this could
be the moment in world history
where the t rend p ivots in favor of
China,” she added.
russia has likewise sensed op-
portunity in the vacuum of
American leadership, sending a
cargo plane of medical aid toPlaneloads of Chinese medical
equipment, masks and protective
gear have been landing in Italy,
Spain, the Netherlands, Ukraine,
Iran and Iraq, among other na-
tions. Jack ma, China's wealthiest
man, donated test kits, masks and
protective suits to each of Africa’s
54 countries.
African heads of state took to
social media to profusely thank
him, and headlines of major
newspapers gushed with grati-
tude. “The perception across
much of the continent today is
that the Chinese are stepping up
to deliver the kind of public
goods that the U.S. used to pro-
vide,” said Eric olander, manag-
ing editor of the China-Africa
Project.
To the extent that the United
States has engaged with the rest
of the world on the coronavirus
issue, it has mostly been to trade
barbs with rivals over what name
should be used to describe the
virus — Trump insists on calling
it the “Chinese virus” — and who
is to blame for its spread.
on Wednesday, Secretary of
State mike Pompeo’s insistence
on calling it the “Wuhan virus”
torpedoed a virtual meeting of
Group of Seven foreign ministers
convened to discuss the crisis.
Trump participated Thursday in
a virtual summit of the larger
Group of 20, which agreed to
inject up to $5 trillion into the
international economy and es-
tablish funding for a global effort
to find a vaccine. The U.S. gov-
ernment has not yet said how
much it will contribute.
“In international crises, Amer-
ica has always been the country
to which other countries have
turned for leadership and to
steer the ship. And now, which
country is looking to the United
States? No one,” said Elisabeth
Braw of the London-based royal
United Services Institute.
rajiv Shah, who coordinated
the U.S. response to the 2014
Ebola virus outbreak centered in
Africa as head of the U.S. Agency
for International Development,
has stressed the n eed f or interna-
tional cooperation with America
in the lead. “It has to be all of the
United S tates, a nd has t o be all of
the world,” Shah, now president
of the rockefeller foundation,
told Bloomberg TV on monday.
During the Ebola outbreak, he
said, “A merica always leads
those kinds o f coalitions. It i s our
resources, our expertise, our
technical capacity and our
leAdersHIp from A
U.S. rivals such as China and Russia are stepping up to fill a leadership void
JabIn botsford/tHe WasHIngton Post
the United states’ disengagement on the coronavirus fight under president trump is part of a broader
retreat from the world. Analysts say America’s absence could permanently affect its global standing.“Unless the Trump administration ups its game,
this could be the moment in world history where
the trend pivots in favor of China.”
Elisabeth Braw, of the london-based royal united services Institute