The EconomistDecember 14th 2019 Middle East & Africa 412 me—to pay for school fees” In experi-
ments, recipients of a cash windfall, such
as a raffle prize, will often take less to keep
their winnings under wraps. In Cameroon
people take out loans they do not need so
that relatives think they are hard-up.
Kinship networks can grease the wheels
of commerce with loans or by creating trust
when contracts are hard to enforce. But
they also come with an “extra bill” that can
“slow down the growth of a business”, says
Ronald Mukasa, who trains Ugandan en-
trepreneurs. Cash flows are diverted into
weddings and funerals. Managers hire rel-
atives, who are not always up to the job.
Yet family life is far more than an ac-
counting exercise. In South Africa under
apartheid, racist residence restrictions
forced black workers to leave children in
the care of others while they migrated to
towns for work. Habits of sharing are now a
bulwark against inequality. The term
“black tax” is a misnomer, says Niq
Mhlongo, the editor of a new book on the
subject. He grew up in Soweto, a township,
sharing a room with seven others. After the
death of his father, his brother’s salary put
him through school. As an adult, it was his
turn to pay university fees for the same
brother’s son. “It means that I had to post-
pone marriage,” he says, just as his brother
had once done for him. “But is that a tax?
No, it’s a family responsibility.”
Mutual help acts as insurance against
sudden shocks, such as illness or the loss of
a job. One study in Kenya found that contri-
butions from friends and family made up a
quarter of income for poor rural house-
holds, mitigating swings in other earnings.
Kinship cannot replace the welfare
state. Sharing breaks down in the face of
big shocks, such as drought, which hit
everybody at once. And the neediest people
often have the weakest networks. But in-
formal groups, such as savings circles, can
connect to larger institutions.
As horizons expand, social networks do
too. Nigerians encourage their relatives to
go abroad to support the family, says Olay-
inka Akanle of the University of Ibadan.
Emigrants sometimes invest in schools or
businesses back home, and ask kin to over-
see them in their absence. Remittances to
Nigeria now exceed oil revenues: last year
they brought in about $24bn, 11 times more
than all foreign direct investment.
Urbanisation, consumerism and rising
inequality may strain kinship ties, but they
have not yet broken them. In a trendy café
in Kampala, two sisters discuss the mid-
dle-class dilemma. “How do you save up
when your salary doesn’t just look after
you?” asks one. She cannot afford to go
travelling as much as she would like. Yet
sharing is her culture, and she would have
it no other way. “Your savings are in peo-
ple,” her sister elaborates. “So when I have a
bad day I cannot starve.” 7
T
he woundsof Libyan militiamen de-
fending the un-backed “government of
national accord” (gna) in Tripoli are chang-
ing, along with the battle they are fighting.
Shrapnel used to be the cause of most of the
casualties around the Libyan capital. But
lately the fallen have been shot through the
head, says a foreign diplomat. On the other
side of the fight, Russian snipers have
teamed up with the self-styled Libyan Na-
tional Army led by General Khalifa Haftar,
who laid siege to Tripoli in April hoping to
dislodge the government. The front lines
are moving for the first time in months.
Countries such as Egypt and the United
Arab Emirates have long supported Mr Haf-
tar with guns and money. But Russia’s
backing is a game-changer, say Western
diplomats. It has helped Mr Haftar consoli-
date his hold on the east and south, home
to most of the country’s oilfields (see map),
and may tip the balance in Tripoli. But Rus-
sia’s presence may also be drawing in other
foreign powers. America accused Russia or
its local allies of shooting down one of its
drones last month. President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan of Turkey says he might send
troops to defend the gna, if invited.
Russia’s intervention has come in the
form of mercenaries from the Wagner
Group, a private security firm with connec-
tions to the Kremlin. Officials in Moscow
deny any involvement in Libya, but West-
ern officials say the Wagner Group has
been flying arms, tanks and drones into
Libya for almost a year. There are thought
to be 1,400 Russian mercenaries in the
country. “It’s like a world-class coach tak-
ing over abteam,” says a diplomat in Tri-
poli, who considers the firm an unofficialarm of the Russian government.
President Vladimir Putin is trying to
build on his success in Syria, where he res-
cued the regime of Bashar al-Assad and
won a foothold in the eastern Mediterra-
nean. Libya’s coastline runs for 1,770km
and sits directly across from Europe. The
Wagner Group already protects most of the
oil installations under Mr Haftar’s control.
That gives it leverage over Europe, which
guzzles Libyan crude oil.
Turkey has commercial ties to the gna
and is opposed to the anti-Islamist agenda
of Mr Haftar and his foreign backers. But its
interest in Libya also stems from concerns
over energy. Last month it signed a conten-
tious deal with the gnathat demarcated
the maritime boundaries between the
countries’ exclusive economic zones.
Greece, Cyprus and Egypt see the move as
an attempt by Turkey to gain control of
contested gas-rich waters. The energy
agreement was accompanied by one aimed
at strengthening the defences of the gna,
which Turkey has already armed.
Mr Haftar’s foreign allies say they will
boost their support for him if Turkey gets
more involved. In an effort to lower ten-
sions, Mr Erdogan said he wants to speak to
Mr Putin before the Russian president vis-
its Turkey early next month. “On the Haftar
issue, I don’t want it to give birth to a new
Syria in relations with Russia. I believe
Russia will also review its existing stance
over Haftar,” said Mr Erdogan. “He is an
outlaw, and by that same token, any sup-
port he’s given is rendered illegally.”
The foreign meddling makes a mockery
of the arms embargo imposed by the unin
2011, as well as its efforts to broker a peace
deal. Plans for an international conference
in Berlin have been postponed time and
again. The gnais increasingly seen as a
hostage to its allied militias. The central
bank in Tripoli maintains control over Lib-
ya’s oil revenues. But Mr Haftar could re-
new his bid for international recognition
and start selling oil himself.
Observers do not believe Tripoli’s fall is
imminent. In a recent offensive Mr Haftar’s
forces advanced about a kilometre, then
ground to a halt. Still, the city’s defenders
would welcome Turkish troops and air
power (Mr Haftar currently controls the
skies). “A lot of people on the front are get-
ting tired,” says a militiaman in Tripoli.
“It’s been eight months of fighting and they
want to go home.”
Meanwhile, residents of the capital feel
the noose tightening around them. Civil-
ian deaths because of the war, which had
averaged less than 50 a month, are climb-
ing. The streets have become crowded with
people fleeing the fighting. Mr Haftar, who
controls the city’s supply of power and wa-
ter, could make matters worse. Whether he
does or not may depend on the calculations
of his foreign backers. 7ALGIERS
Russia and other foreign powers are
piling into LibyaLibya’s civil warMagnet for
mayhem
Oilfields/
pipelinesEGYPTSUDAN
CHADLIBYANIGERTUNISIAALGERIATripoliMed. SeaBenghaziTobrukLibyan
National Army
(Haftar)UN-backed government
and allied militiasTribesmen/
other militias250 kmAreas of control
December 12th 2019Source: Liveuamap.com