Copyright © 2020 The New York TimesTUESDAY, APRIL 7, 2020INTERNATIONAL WEEKLY
In collaboration withThis article is by Peter S. Goodman,
Daniel Politi, Suhasini Raj, Lynsey Chutel
and Abdi Latif Dahir.
In New Delhi, a fruit vendor whose sales
have dropped by half dilutes the milk she
serves her children. In Turkey, a company
that runs hot air balloon rides has furloughed
its 49 employees, cutting their wages by half.
In Manila, a bartender for an international
cruise line finds himself marooned at home.
In Johannesburg, a mother who makes her
living braiding hair goes home empty-hand-
ed.
And in Buenos Aires, a cabdriver prowls
deserted streets for fares, fearful that he will
contract the coronavirus, yet more afraid of
losing his taxi to repossession. “This situa-
tion is larger than me,” he said.
As the pandemic brings the global econo-
my to an astonishing halt, the world’s most
vulnerable countries are suffering intensi-
fying harm.
International investment is fleeing emerg-
ing markets at a pace not seen since the fi-
nancial crisis of 2008, diminishing the value
of currencies and forcing people to pay more
for imported goods like food and fuel.
“This will be as bad, or potentially even
worse, than the global financial crisis for
emerging markets,” said Per Hammarlund,
a strategist at SEB Group, a global invest-
ment bank based in Stockholm. “It is grim.”
It is also a threat to global fortunes.
Emerging markets account for 60 percent of
the world economy on the basis of purchas-
ing power, according to the International
Monetary Fund. A slowdown in developing
countries is a slowdown for the planet.
From South Asia to Africa to Latin Amer-
ica, the pandemic is confronting developing
countries with a public health emergency
combined with an economic crisis, each ex-
acerbating the other. The same forces are
playing out in wealthy nations, too. But in
poor countries — where billions of people live
near calamity even in the best of times — the
dangers are amplified.
It is unfolding just as many governments
are burdened by debt that limits their ability
to help those in need. Since 2007, total public
and private debt in emerging markets has
multiplied from about 70 percent of annual
economic output to 165 percent, according to
Oxford Economics.The pandemic has trig-
gered a sharp reversal of in-
ternational investment away
from emerging markets and
toward the safety of United
States government bonds.
Last year, emerging mar-
kets including China, India,
South Africa and Brazil saw
net inflows of $79 billion in
investment, according to
the Institute of Internation-
al Finance. In the last two
months, $70 billion in investment has left.
Some countries could default, especially Ar-
gentina, Turkey and South Africa.
“The speed is quite staggering,” said Sergi
Lanau, the institute’s deputy chief econo-
mist.
Most economists assume that a worldwide
recession is underway.
The disruption of industry worldwide has
drastically cut demand for commodities,
walloping copper producers like Chile, Pe-
ru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and
Zambia, along with zinc producers like Bra-
zil and India. Oil exporters are susceptible
to the downturn as prices remain cheap,By STEVEN LEE MYERS
Scarred by the SARS epidemic that
erupted in 2002, China had created an
infectious disease reporting system
that officials said was world-class:
fast, thorough and, just as important,
immune from meddling. Hospitals
could input patients’ details into a
computer and instantly notify health
authorities in Beijing who were trained
to spot outbreaks before they spread.
It didn’t work. After doctors in Wu-
han began treating patients stricken
with a mysterious pneumonia in De-
cember, the reporting was supposed
to have been automatic. Instead, hos-
pitals deferred to local health officials
who, over a political aversion to shar-
ing bad news, withheld information
from the system — keeping Beijing in
the dark. The central health authori-
ties first learned about the outbreak
after whistle-blowers leaked docu-
ments online. Even after Beijing got
involved, local officials set narrow
criteria for confirming cases, leaving
out information that the virus was
spreading. Doctors had to have their
cases confirmed by bureaucrats be-
fore they were reported.
As the rest of the world struggles to
contain coronavirus, China has cast it-
self as a model, bringing down the out-
break to the point where it has begun
to lift the onerous restrictions that are
now imposed around the world. This
narrative obscures the early failures in
reporting cases, squandered time that
could have been used to slow infections
before they exploded into a pandemic.
“According to the rules, this of
course should have been reported,”
said Yang Gonghuan, a retired health
care official involved in establish-
ing the direct reporting system. “OfCon tin ued on Page IICon tin ued on Page IIStruggles of developing countries intensify the shock to the global economy.
In China,
Fail-Safe
System
Failed
Pandemic Ravages the Poor
VICTOR MORIYAMA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
Debt limits the ability of developing countries to help those in need in the outbreak. A sealed-off phone in São Paulo, Brazil.
RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESWANG YUGUO/XINHUA, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS
Doctors in Wuhan began seeing
patients with extensive damage
to their lungs in December.Argentina was in peril
before the pandemic. Its
currency lost more than
two-thirds of its value in
2018 and 2019. Buenos
Aires in March.