The Economist 04Apr2020

38 The Americas The EconomistApril 4th 2020

2

Bello Wisdom and witlessness

S

ince he tookover as Peru’s president

two years ago Martín Vizcarra, an

otherwise nondescript politician, has

not flinched from taking bold decisions.

He pushed political reforms through by

referendum. Faced with a serially ob-

structive Congress, last year he shut it

down, calling a fresh legislative election.

Characteristically, he was the first Latin

American leader to react to covid-19 by

imposing a lockdown and curfew, on

March 15th when his country had only 71

reported cases. Peruvians appreciate this

restriction on their liberties for the

public good. In an Ipsos poll his approval

rating soared from 52% to 87%.

That is the pattern in Latin America.

In Argentina Alberto Fernández, who

took over a politically divided country in

December, has seen his popularity rise to

over 80% after he imposed a quarantine

and sealed borders. In Colombia the new

mayor of Bogotá, Claudia López, stole a

march over a hesitant national govern-

ment when she imposed a four-day trial

lockdown. Chile’s Sebastián Piñera,

whose presidency seemed moribund

after protests, has deployed testing and

sealed off hotspots. His popularity has

crept up, from 10% in December to 21%.

Their approach contrasts with that of

the populist presidents of Brazil, Jair

Bolsonaro, and Mexico, Andrés Manuel

López Obrador, often called amlo. Both

have given priority to protecting weak

economies. Both spent weeks denying

the seriousness of the virus and refusing

to respect social-distancing measures

recommended by their health ministries.

In Mexico, according to Alberto Díaz-

Cayeros, a political scientist at Stanford

University, the government’s caution

was rooted in trust in the capacity of the

health service to deal with the threat.

That approach worked against swine flu

in 2009. It underestimated covid-19, which

spreads aggressively, with many symp-

tomless cases. On March 24th the govern-

ment pivoted, shutting schools and ban-

ning non-essential activity. Six days later,

with the virus out of control, it declared a

state of emergency.

amlohas muddled the message about

social distancing. Mr Bolsonaro went

further, actively sabotaging efforts to

control the virus. In Brazil state governors

have imposed lockdowns, including in São

Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. These measures

are popular. Mr Bolsonaro’s heedlessness

is less so. City residents staged pot-bang-

ing protests against the president. That

prompted a counter-attack. Mr Bolsonaro

railed against the governors, issued a video

proclaiming “Brazil cannot stop”, and

urged supporters to stage cavalcades

against quarantines. Only on March 31st,

with 201 deaths in Brazil, did he (briefly)

recognise the seriousness of the virus,

calling for a “pact” against it “to save lives

without leaving jobs behind”. He then

reverted to his earlier rhetoric.

What political consequences will these

actions have? Though he is still popular,

amlo’s approval rating was declining

before the virus, because of his failure to

halt crime or to revive the economy. That

trend seems set to continue. As for Mr

Bolsonaro, some think his actions merit

impeachment, for threatening the con-

stitutional right to life. His strategy

appears aimed at shoring up his base.

Polls show he retains the support of a

third of respondents. That should be

enough to keep his job, depending on

how many Brazilians die.

Those who have acted decisively are

benefiting from the public’s instinct to

rally round their leaders at a time of

danger. But sustaining the quarantines

in a region where many live precariously

will be hard. Take Argentina, where Mr

Fernández already faced a stricken econ-

omy. His government has made some

emergency handouts of money and food

in poor areas on the periphery of Buenos

Aires, where his Peronist political move-

ment has long run things. Even so, the

Peronists “are very worried, they fear a

social explosion and losing control”, says

Sergio Berensztein, a political consul-

tant. He thinks the government may have

to make quarantine more selective and

flexible, at the risk of prolonging the

epidemic. Much the same goes for Peru.

Covid-19 struck Latin America when

its leaders and institutions had fallen

into disrepute, because of economic

stagnation, corruption and poor public

services. Management of the pandemic

requires a huge effort to help those in

need. It may also offer an opportunity for

redemption. Leaders who impose quar-

antines could save the lives of 2.5m Latin

Americans, according to epidemiologists

at Imperial College, London. They have to

find ways to make citizens remember

that, even as economic hardship bites.

A reward, for now, for leaders who have acted decisively to fight the pandemic

other countries from 2006 to 2017. More

than 7,000 accepted. On March 24th the

State Department warned countries using

Cuban doctors to be on the alert for abuse.

But countries like Italy need help, and

Cuba needs cash. Covid-19 has stopped

tourism, a big source of income. Remit-

tances from the United States will fall. Even

before the pandemic Cuba was in trouble:

in October it missed debt payments to cred-

itor countries. One creditor is Italy, which

might have accepted medical help as in-

kind debt payment, says Rodrigo Olivares-

Caminal, a professor at Queen Mary Uni-

versity in London. It is not clear whether all

new host countries are paying up. Andorra

is, says its finance minister. Cuba generally

keeps such details quiet but tends to charge

richer countries more, says John Kirk, of

Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia.

If it is to send doctors overseas, it will

have to avoid a Lombardy-style outbreak at

home. It prides itself on prevention. Neigh-

bourhood spies check on whether preg-

nant women get prenatal care as well as on

their loyalty to the Communist Party. Med-

ical students have taken the temperatures

of 500,000 elderly Cubans to detect cases

of covid-19. Cuba has recorded 212 cases,

compared with 1,284 in the Dominican Re-

public, which has nearly as many people.

With the stakes so high at home, medi-

cal adventurism abroad may seem reck-

less. But the government craves the kudos

it brings and hopes no one will notice that

it benefits so much more than the medical

emissaries. After the release last year of

“Chernobyl”, a television mini-series, pun-

dits touted the role of Cuban doctors in

treating children for radiation poisoning.

Cubans hope that the doctors in Lombardy

will one day be seen as covid-19 heroes. 7