The Economist 04Apr2020

The EconomistApril 4th 2020 39

1

M

ichael smelledtrouble before he

saw it. In January the 28-year-old

from Bilibiza, in the northern Mozambican

province of Cabo Delgado, caught a whiff of

smoke. A village had been torched nearby.

Within hours houses and schools in Bili-

biza were burning as 10,000 residents fled.

It was the second time in two years that

Michael (not his real name) had run for his

life. In 2018 his village was attacked. At least

five people were killed. A friend was decap-

itated. Today Michael, his wife and three

young children live in Pemba, the provin-

cial capital. They sleep outside, chicks and

pigeons pecking at their feet.

Violence has engulfed Cabo Delgado

since 2017. On one side is a poorly under-

stood Islamist insurgency. On the other are

the government’s heavy-handed security

forces. Aid agencies estimate that more

than 1,000 people have died and at least

100,000 have had to leave their homes. On

March 23rd the rebels made their boldest

move yet, taking the town of Mocimboa da

Praia, before retreating. Two days later they

took Quissanga, 100km north of Pemba.

Until recently southern Africa had been

relatively free from the jihadist attacks that

have wrought havoc in the Horn of Africa,

Nigeria and the Sahel. No longer. South Af-

rica, in particular, is worried. The uprising

also threatens what could be Africa’s larg-

est-ever energy project: the development

of gasfields in the Rovuma basin. Before

this year analysts forecast that energy

firms would spend more $100bn by 2030 to

turn Mozambique into “Africa’s Qatar”.

Cabo Delgado has long been the most

neglected part of Mozambique. It suffered

horribly in the war of independence (1964-

74) and the subsequent civil war (1977-92).

It has the country’s highest rates of illitera-

cy, inequality and child malnutrition. It is

one of just a few provinces with a Muslim

majority, which had long drawn on a mod-

erate Sufi tradition.

That tradition began to be challenged in

the 2000s. Muhammad Cheba of the main-

stream Islamic Council of Mozambique re-

calls how some young believers began in-

sisting on wearing shoes in mosques,

ostensibly because the Prophet did so.

Then around 2008 a sect known as Ahlu

Sunnah Wa-Jamo (“adherents of the pro-

phetic tradition”) was set up. In a report last

year, iese, a Mozambican research outfit,

noted that the group was heavily influ-

enced by Islamists from east Africa. Mo-

cimboa da Praia lies on a long-standing mi-

gration route, near the porous border with

Tanzania. Close links were made between

the group and cells in Kenya, Somalia, the

Great Lakes and Tanzania.

The fundamentalists argued that main-

stream Muslim leaders were in cahoots

with a corrupt elite made up of criminal

bosses and the ruling party, frelimo. The

result: a closed shop that locks out the

Cabo Delgado

Mayhem in Mozambique

PEMBA

A little-known and poorly understood conflict is intensifying

TANZANIA

MOZAMBIQUE

Cabo

Delgado

Nampula

Niassa

Palma

Mozambique

Channel

Pemba

Quissanga

COMOROS

Mocimboa

da Praia

Offshore gas

exploration

blocks

Bilibiza

Rovuma

Maputo

150 km

Attacks by jihadist insurgents

Source: ACLED *To March 18th

2018 2019 2020*

Middle East & Africa

40 Sweet dreams are Congolese

41 Stay home or be whipped

41 A lost year in Saudi Arabia

42 Covid-19 and the ultra-Orthodox

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