The Economist 04Apr2020

42 Middle East & Africa The EconomistApril 4th 2020

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his wasto be the week when Binyamin

Netanyahu, the prime minister of Isra-

el, finally won. After three inconclusive

elections in the span of a year, he had all

but convinced his bitter rival, Benny Gantz,

to join him in government. There were still

some things to be worked out, such as how

fast to annex parts of the occupied West

Bank, and who would lead the justice min-

istry and thus oversee Mr Netanyahu’s cor-

ruption trial. But Mr Gantz’s Blue and

White party had already split, with about

half its representatives supporting a co-

alition deal that would leave Mr Netanyahu

in office until September 2021, when he

would hand over to Mr Gantz.

Alas, the outbreak of covid-19 is getting

in the way. On March 30th Mr Netanyahu

isolated himself after an aide came down

with the virus. Mr Netanyahu tested nega-

tive for the disease and left quarantine days

later. But he went back into isolation after

the health minister was diagnosed with the

virus on April 1st. Both the aide and the

minister are ultra-Orthodox. The outbreak

is raging among their fellows.

Take the ultra-Orthodox city of Bnei

Brak, which has the second-most cases in

Israel despite being its ninth-largest city.

Ultra-Orthodox quarters of Jerusalem also

have more infections than neighbouring

ones, underlining how the virus is spread-

ing more quickly among this community,

which is about 12% of the population.

For weeks after most Israelis began so-

cial-distancing at the behest of the govern-

ment, life continued as normal in ultra-Or-

thodox communities, which retain a large

degree of autonomy. The study of the Torah

and Talmud did not stop in ultra-Orthodox

schools even though the rest of Israel’s edu-

cation system shut down on March 12th.

Prayers continued in crowded synagogues,

despite data showing they were hubs of in-

fection. Only at the end of March did ultra-

Orthodox rabbis, who initially said the “To-

rah protects and saves”, at last stop their

followers praying in public.

Other factors made things worse. For

example, the ultra-Orthodox are forbidden

by their rabbis from owning televisions

and radios. They can buy mobile phones,

but these are blocked from accessing the

internet and messaging apps. That meant

that public-health information was slow to

arrive. Many failed to receive text messages

sent by the government telling them that

they had the virus. And it was not hard for

the infected to spread the disease. The ul-

tra-Orthodox tend to have large families

and often live in cramped quarters. Bnei

Brak is Israel’s most crowded city, with

27,000 residents per square kilometre,

three times the density of Tel Aviv.

Mr Netanyahu, who relies on the sup-

port of ultra-Orthodox parties, was reluc-

tant to close synagogues. Police were sent

into ultra-Orthodox areas only after the

rabbis themselves ruled that prayers

should be held in private. On April 1st the

prime minister restricted movement into

and out of Bnei Brak. But some in the city

are ignoring the government, holding

prayers and keeping study halls open.

For decades the ultra-Orthodox have

been allowed to run their own affairs, with

government funding. Most neither serve in

the army nor work. Many Israelis resent

this. As the ultra-Orthodox begin using up

scarce medical supplies, more questions

will surely be asked about their unique po-

sition in Israeli society. 7

BNEI BRAK

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox are failing to

take precautions

Faith and covid-19

Insular, but not

isolating

Bless you

tolerates no dissent.

Prince Muhammad’s rash persona was

on display days later when opecand Russia

failed to reach a deal on new output curbs.

The prince allegedly overruled his half-

brother, the oil minister, and ordered

Aramco, the state oil company, to boost

production. With the market awash with

oil, prices crashed below $30 a barrel and

may fall further still. Saudi Arabia is tired

of playing swing producer, cutting output

to prop up prices when others refuse to do

the same. Prince Muhammad is also wor-

ried about the future of oil in a world trying

to wean itself off the stuff.

If prices stay low, however, the kingdom

will need to plug a budget shortfall of up to

$2bn a week. It has already cut spending by

50bn rials ($13.3bn), the only g20 member

to trim outlays during the pandemic. Min-

istries have been asked to plan even deeper

cuts. Construction firms say new contracts

have ground to a halt.

Publicly allies have played along. The

state oil company of the United Arab Emir-

ates (uae) pledged to boost its own output

from 3m to 4m barrels a day. In private,

though, Gulf officials fume about a deci-

sion that will blow holes in their budgets.

The uaehas tried, so far without success, to

bring Russia and Saudi Arabia back to ne-

gotiations. So has America. Barely a year

ago President Donald Trump was raging

against opecfor high prices. Now he wants

the cartel to raise them before cheap crude

cripples America’s shale industry. But the

Saudis seem unwilling to budge—even as

covid-19 destroys global demand.

Saudi Arabia moved faster than many

countries to contain the virus. By mid-

March, when it had less than 100 docu-

mented cases, it had grounded inter-

national flights and suspended pilgrim-

ages to Mecca. Thousands of returnees

from abroad were quarantined in pleasant

hotels at state expense and tested. Quick

action seems to have helped. The kingdom

has 1,720 confirmed cases, among the low-

est per-capita numbers in the region.

Still, the economic consequences will

be severe. The effort to switch the Saudi

economy away from oil relies heavily on

private consumption. More than 426,000

Saudis work in retail, which has ground to

a halt. The kingdom started issuing tourist

visas in September and hoped to draw hun-

dreds of thousands of visitors in 2020. Few

are likely to show up. Investment may stall.

The virus may also force Saudi Arabia to

cancel the most important events on its

calendar. The haj, the annual pilgrimage to

Mecca (a once-in-a-lifetime duty for Mus-

lims), is meant to begin in late July. Last

year it drew 2.5m people. Such a crowd is

unlikely while covid-19 rages. On March

31st the minister in charge of pilgrimages

told Muslims not to make travel plans yet.

A government-backed research centre has

published a list of past pilgrimages inter-

rupted by war, bandits and disease. But

cancelling the hajwould have a cost. Mecca

is the largest contributor to gdpafter oil.

As for the g20, three weeks after the

World Health Organisation declared co-

vid-19 a pandemic, the bloc has done little

to co-ordinate a response. Its heavy-

weights, America and China, would rather

bicker with each other. Even the g7, a more

homogeneous bloc, could not reach a joint

statement because of America’s insistence

on calling it the “Wuhan virus”, a name to

which China objects. The crown prince’s

coming-out party may be overshadowed by

further feuding. That is, if it happens at all.

If the virus roars back in the autumn, as

some epidemiologists expect, the summit

might end up not in a gilded ballroom, but

on Zoom. 7