The EconomistMarch 28th 2020 3S
ometimes bridgingthe gap between success and failure, be-
tween finishing high school or dropping out, requires a lot of
determination and the cost of a cow. Jack Oyugi grew up as the old-
est of 14 children to parents tilling an acre of ground in western
Kenya. Their crops usually gave them enough to eat—neighbours
would feed them if food ran short—but they had little cash. When
Mr Oyugi went to secondary school his father sold his only cow to
pay the fees. “The neighbours laughed at him,” he says. Now he is
having the last laugh. Mr Oyugi went on to university where he
studied biotechnology, and then developed a process to make
protein-rich animal feed from water hyacinth, an invasive plant
on Lake Victoria. He provides jobs for 30 people. Orders for the
feed, which is about 30% cheaper than soyabean protein, are com-
ing from as far away as Thailand. As for his father, “I’ve built him a
seven-room house and bought him some cows,” he says proudly.
Mr Oyugi is talented and hard-working. But his jump from vil-
lage to university, from subsistence farming to founding a thriving
business, is also one that encapsulates the change that is sweeping
across the world’s youngest continent. Almost half of the 1.3bn Af-
ricans alive today were born after the terror attacks on America in
2001—the median age of 19 is less than half that of Europe (43).
In 1885, when the colonial powers carved up Africa, it had fewer
than 100m people, or about one-third the number in Europe. Todaythere are almost two Africans for every European. Some outsiders
see this rapidly growing population as a recipe for disaster. Al-
though the poverty rate is falling, about a third of children are still
malnourished. This leaves many of them with stunted bodies and
diminished mental capacities. Every month about one million Af-
ricans enter the job market. Many of them do not have the educa-
tion or skills they need. More than a third of African children do
not finish secondary school. In Mozambique and Madagascar that
rate jumps to more than half. Extremists find fertile ground in
countries with large numbers of poor, unemployed young people.
Unlike other emerging powers such as China and Brazil, Africa
is divided into 54 countries, all with their different problems. Two
of its biggest economies, South Africa and Nigeria, are barely
treading water. Many are riven by tribal divisions and suffer from
poor infrastructure, corruption and the legacies of slavery, colo-
nialism and authoritarian rule. Some are challenged by dangerous
religious radicalisation that threatens to turn failing states into
failed ones. Climate change will make these challenges tougher. In
the short term, so will the spread of covid-19.
The continent has disappointed before. Thabo Mbeki, at his in-
auguration as president of South Africa in 1999, spoke of entering
“the African century”. Even after the global financial crisis, rapid
growth in Africa gave hope of sustained progress, albeit from a lowThe African century
Special report
For hundreds of years Africa has played only a small role in world affairs. Now the continent is changing so rapidly
it will be hard to ignore, says Jonathan RosenthalThe African century
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