The Globe and Mail - 03.04.2020

FRIDAY, APRIL 3, 2020 | THE GLOBE AND MAILO NEWS | A

The second-biggest Ebola outbreak in
world history is expected to be declared
officially over on April 12 – a vivid demon-
stration that African countries can contain
the spread of deadly diseases.
Despite severe obstacles of poverty and
war, the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo was contained with-
in the country’s territory, even though it
erupted in an eastern region near the bor-
ders of several other countries.
No new Ebola cases have been recorded
since Feb. 17, and the World Health Orga-
nization will declare the end of the out-
break after the 21-day incubation period
has twice expired. It was a difficult cam-
paign, with more than 2,260 deaths, but it
offers some hope for Africa’s chances of
controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.
Lengthy experience with Ebola is one of
the reasons why African authorities are
better prepared for disease epidemics than
some outsiders might assume. But across
Africa, the COVID-19 pandemic is exposing
a vast gulf among the health systems of dif-
ferent countries. While some are impres-
sively strong, many are worryingly weak.
Senegal and South Africa, two of the
countries with the greatest expertise, have
been working on world-class testing meth-
ods that could enable them to produce
rapid results and broad testing for the nov-
el coronavirus that causes COVID-19, even
though they have fewer cases and fewer fi-
nancial resources than many European or
North American countries.
A research institute in Senegal has been
working with a British company to pro-
duce a 10-minute test for the coronavirus,
costing less than a U.S. dollar each. They
are aiming to produce eight million tests,
beginning in June, for worldwide use.
In South Africa, health authorities are
taking advantage of their world-beating
experience in tuberculosis testing by con-
verting some of their TB-testing devices
into machines that can check for the coro-
navirus. The machines, known as GeneXp-
ert, are expected to be able to produce test

results within 45 minutes, beginning later

this month.

South Africa has been conducting about

3,000 tests a day and recently increased its

capacity to 5,000 a day, with a target of

36,000 daily tests by the end of this month.

This would compare favourably with

many wealthier countries. Canadian

health authorities, for example, were con-

ducting about 15,000 tests a day in the sec-

ond half of March.

Compared with Western countries,

many African countries have

introduced strict lockdowns

and other health measures at

a relatively early stage in

their exposure to the virus –

partly because their years of

experience with public-

health emergencies such as

Ebola and HIV, and because

of their close relationships

with international health

agencies.

South Africa announced a

national lockdown just three weeks after

its first case of the coronavirus – a remark-

ably early decision. By Thursday, there

were 1,462 confirmed cases in South Africa,

but this was much better than the project-

ed numbers in thegovernment’s internal

forecasting, which had predicted 4,000 to

6,000 cases by now.

But most other African countries have

done relatively little testing so far. Nigeria,

the most populous African country with

about 200 million people, had conducted

just 152 tests by March 22. It announced this

week that it is expanding its laboratory

capacity to allow it to perform 1,500 tests a

day.

South Sudan, with a population of 12

million, had conducted just 18 tests by

Tuesday this week.

There is a similar gap on the crucial

medical equipment that will be needed to

battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While

South Africa has an estimated 3,000 venti-

lators in its public and private hospitals,

poorer countries such as Liberia and the

Central African Republic have only a hand-

ful for their entire popula-

tion.

The World Health Organi-

zation says it is trying to do

an accurate survey of ventila-

tors in Africa, but it hasn’t

been able to determine the

total number on the conti-

nent yet – and it is worried

that the travel bans and

flight restrictions imposed

by most governments will

make it difficult to import

the equipment.

“There is an enormous gap in the num-

ber of ventilators needed,” said Matshidiso

Moeti, the WHO regional director for Afri-

ca. “It is certainly an area of great challenge

for African countries,” she said in a briefing

on Thursday. “Lockdowns will make the

transportation of ventilators a challenge.”

By Thursday, there were about 7,

confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Afri-

ca, with cases reported in 50 of the 54 coun-

tries. “Case numbers are increasing expo-

nentially in the African region,” Dr. Moeti

said.

VictoryoverEbolacouldhelp

Africainthecoronavirusfight

Longbattleagainstanother

killerdiseaseisonereasonthe

continentisprobablybetter

preparedforCOVID-19than

manyoutsidersmightassume

Thereisan

enormousgapin

thenumberof

ventilatorsneeded.

MATSHIDISO MOETI

WHOREGIONALDIRECTOR

FORAFRICA

GEOFFREY YORK
AFRICA BUREAU CHIEF
JOHANNESBURG

Cars line up at a COVID-19 testing station in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Wednesday.

As of Thursday, the country had 1,462 confirmed cases.JEROMEDELAY/ASSOCIATEDPRESS

W

hile countries around the
world impose strict measures
to stop the spread of the new
coronavirus, Sweden has fol-
lowed a different path: no lockdowns, no
school closings and no ban on going to the
pub.
The Scandinavian country is pursuing
what Prime Minister Stefan Lofven calls a
“common sense” response to the pan-
demic by keeping the country largely
functioning and aiming health measures
at the most vulnerable.
“We who are adults need to be exactly
that – adults. Not spread panic or ru-
mours,” Mr. Lofven said in a televised ad-
dress to the country last week. “No one is
alone in this crisis, but each person has a
heavy responsibility.”
The approach has put Sweden at odds
with many countries across Europe, in-
cluding its neighbours – Denmark, Nor-
way and Finland – where almost all public
venues have been shut and people have
been ordered to stay indoors. In Sweden,
most bars, restaurants and schools remain
open, and people continue to mingle in
parks and on city streets.
The government has introduced social-
distancing guidelines and encouraged
people to work from home. Gatherings of
more than 50 people have also been
banned, and some businesses, notably
cinemas and ski resorts, have voluntarily
closed. But few measures are mandatory,
and almost no one expects Sweden to
adopt the kind of fines and police checks
that have become commonplace in Bri-
tain, France, Spain and Italy.
A growing number of doctors and med-
ical experts worrythat thegovernment is
taking a huge gamble, especially as the
number of infections in Sweden surpass
5,000 and the death toll approaches 300.
But public-health officials insist their ef-
forts are working and that doing anything
more drastic would be unsustainable.
“In Sweden, we are following the tradi-
tion that we have in Sweden and working
very much with voluntary measures, very
much with informing the public about the
right things to do. That has worked rea-
sonably well so far,” Anders Tegnell, Swe-
den’s chief epidemiologist and main ar-
chitect of the policy, said in an interview
from Stockholm.
Dr. Tegnell said most people are trav-
elling less, working from home and adher-
ing to social-distancing measures.
“We have so far not had very much of a

spread [of the virus] into elderly homes

and almost no spread into the hospitals,

which is very important,” he said. He add-

ed that, so far, the hospital system has

generally been able to cope with admis-

sions, but some in Stockholm have faced

difficulty. For now, though, he has no

plans to change the overall approach.

“We know that [with] these kinds of

voluntary measures that we put in place

in Sweden, we can basically go on with

them for months and years if necessary.”

And even though the economy has

slowed, “it has the potential to start mov-

ing as usual very, very quickly once these

things are over.”

Historian Lars Tragardh said Sweden’s

response to the pandemic is rooted in its

unique social attitudes. “Sweden is a high-

trust country in a way, which is highly un-

usual,” said Dr. Tragardh, a professor of

history and civil society studies at Ersta

Skondal Bracke university in Stockholm.

Surveys show that Swedes trust the

government and each other to a degree

rarely seen in other countries. An annual

study of public attitudes by researchers at

the University of Gothenburg found that

almost 60 per cent of Swedes said they

had a high degree of trust in people. That

percentage has remained constant in ev-

ery survey since 1996, and is about double

the level in Britain and the United States.

“There’s also trust the other way,” Dr. Tra-

gardh said. “Thegovernment and state in-

stitutions, generally speaking, trust citi-

zens to do the right thing.”

Swedish family structures also differ

from those of other parts of Europe. Al-

most half of Swedish households consist

of a single person, the highest proportion

in Europe and well more than the Europe-

an Union average of 30 per cent. There’s

also no tradition of living with grandpar-

ents, and elderly people tend to live on

their own or in state-supported homes.

“Swedes are proverbially suffering anyway

from some kind of tendency toward social

distancing,” Dr. Tragardh said with a

laugh. “So in that sense, culturally speak-

ing, we are well equipped to handle a cri-

sis of this sort.”

There has also been little public pres-

sure in Sweden to close all schools, unlike

in Britain, where parents demanded the

government do so. That’s largely because

Sweden has a high percentage of families

with two working parents, and Dr. Tegnell

concluded that closing schools would be

far too disruptive. Instead, he left primary

schools open, and closed high schools and

universities, but classes continue online

and some may soon reopen.

Not everyone is comfortable with the

government’s go-slow approach. Last

week, 2,000 doctors and public-health ex-

perts signed an open letter calling on the

government to go further. “We still have

some time to react and suppress the vi-

rus,” the letter said. “Our nation should

not be the exception in Europe.”

Emma Frans, an epidemiologist at Swe-

den’s Karolinska Institute, has some sym-

pathy forthe government’s approach.

“Locking people in and closing schools

is very difficult to sustain,” Dr. Frans said.

But she is concerned about the pres-

sure that’s building in the health-care sys-

tem.

“So I’m not sure at all that this will

work, but my question is: What is a better

thing to do?”

Swedenhasfaithinitspandemicresponse.Europe?Notsomuch

PAUL WALDIE
EUROPE CORRESPONDENT
LONDON

Many Swedish businesses and schools are still open amid the coronavirus pandemic, and

people are continuing to mingle in parks and on city streets.TTNEWSAGENCY/REUTERS

Global coronavirus cases topped

one million on Thursday as the

pandemic continues to explode

in the United States and the

death toll climbs in Italy and

Spain, according to a tally by

Johns Hopkins University.

The virus has killed more than

51,000 globally, with the largest

number of deaths in Italy, fol-

lowed by Spain and the U.S.

The first 100,000 cases were

reported in about 55 days and the

first 500,000 in 76 days. Cases

doubled to one million within

the past eight days.

Total cases reported by Thurs-

day grew 10 per cent from a day

earlier, the first time the rate has

hit double digits since the virus

took hold outside China.

There are 117 countries and

territories that have reported

more than 100 cases, 50 with

outbreaks of more than 1,

and seven that have reported

50,000 or more COVID-19 cases,

mainly in Europe.REUTERS

GLOBALCOVID-19CASES

TOPONEMILLION,JOHNS

HOPKINSUNIVERSITYFINDS

India will pull out of a three-

week lockdown in phases, Prime

Minister Narendra Modi said on

Thursday, as officials battle to

contain the country’s biggest

cluster of coronavirus infections

in New Delhi.

The shutdown, which has

brought Asia’s third-largest

economy to a halt, had been

scheduled to end on April 14.

Mr. Modi ordered India’s 1.

billion people indoors, but the

world’s biggest shutdown has

left millions without jobs and

forced migrant workers to flee

the cities for food and shelter.

“Prime Minister said that it is

important to formulate a com-

mon exit strategy to ensure

staggered re-emergence of the

population once lockdown

ends,” thegovernment quoted

him as saying in a video confer-

ence.

The world’s second-most

populous country has recorded

2,069 confirmed infections, of

whom 53 have died.REUTERS

INDIATOENDLOCKDOWN

INPHASES,MODISAYS

DUBAIThe United Nations and

Western allies are pointing to the

threat of the coronavirus to

push Yemen’s combatants to

agree to fresh talks to end a war

that has left millions vulnerable

to disease, the UN and sources

familiar with the matter said on

Thursday.

The world body has sent a

proposal to the internationally

recognizedgovernment, the

Saudi-led military coalition that

supports it and the Iran-aligned

Houthi movement that holds

Sanaa and most major towns,

two of the sources said.

They said UN special envoy

Martin Griffiths is working to

convene the parties via video

conference soon to discuss the

working document that calls for

a countrywide ceasefire.

The UN envoy has been trying

to restart broad political nego-

tiations last held in December,

2018.

REUTERS

UNITEDNATIONSCALLSTO

RESUMEYEMENPEACETALKS

ATHENSGreece has quarantined

a migrant camp after 23 asylum

seekers tested positive for the

coronavirus, authorities said on

Thursday, its first such facility to

be hit since the outbreak of the

disease.

Tests were conducted after a

19-year-old female migrant

living in the camp in central

Greece was found infected after

giving birth at an Athens hospi-

tal last week. She was the first

recorded case among thousands

of asylum seekers living in

overcrowded camps across

Greece.

None of the confirmed cases

showed any symptoms, the

ministry said, adding that it was

continuing its tests.

Authorities said 119 of 380

people onboard a ferry, which

authorities said had been pre-

vented from docking in Turkey

and was now anchored off Ath-

ens, had tested positive for the

virus.

Greece recorded its first coro-

navirus case at the end of Febru-

ary.

REUTERS

GREEKMIGRANTCAMP

UNDERQUARANTINEAFTER

COVID-19CASESSURFACE