The EconomistNovember 30th 2019 Britain 312
Love’s Labour’s lost
“The truth is, the public aren’t con-
vinced either main party deserve to win
this election outright. They’re peddling
two sets of fantasies, and both, as ma-
jority governments, pose a risk it would
be unwise for the country to take.”
Tony Blair, who led Labour for 15 years,
urges voters to deny the party a majorityLove’s Tory’s also lost
“I’m telling [Tory voters] to vote for
what they believe in and what the
Conservative Party has stood for all my
life...What I think that means in practi-
cal terms is they either vote for de-
frocked Conservative candidates...or
they vote for Lib Dems.”
Lord Heseltine, a former Tory deputy
prime minister, backs the oppositionStoked tensions
“My house is a fortress, my office is a
fortress. I’ve got panic buttons in my
house, I carry one in my pocket.”
Ruth Smeeth, a Labour mp, on the impact
of anti-Semitism. Stoke SentinelVoting up a storm
“There were millions of people who
thought their ‘one little vote’ didn’t
mean shit, and now Trump is the presi-
dent of America and we are leaving the
eu. So your vote really does count.”
Stormzy, a rapper, urges his fans to regis-
ter ahead of the November 26th deadlineAre you local?
“As you know, only the Scottish Nation-
al Party can beat the Tories here in East
Dunbartonshire.”
John Nicolson, an snpcandidate, forgets
during a hustings that he is in fact stand-
ing in Ochil and South PerthshireSpeakers’ Corner
Campaign quotesKey lines from the campaign traildecision to do so immediately is regarded
as a mistake. “Sturgeon overplayed it,” says
Mark Diffley, a pollster in Edinburgh. Sup-
port for independence, which jumped after
the Brexit vote, dropped back again, and
the snplost ground in the 2017 Westmin-
ster election, winning 35 seats.
Its score is likely to improve this time. If
Scotland’s voters are broken down into
four groups, according to how they voted in
the independence and eu referendums,
the Yes/Remainers fit comfortably with the
snpand the No/Leavers with the Tories, but
the No/Remainers (22% of voters) and the
Yes/Leavers (8%) have no natural home.
Support for independence is growing
among Remainers, suggesting that the No/
Remainers are drifting towards the snp.
In Stirling, according to Alyn Smith, the
snpcandidate, who is visiting a group of
damp activists standing on the bridge in
Dunblane, the presence of the University of
Stirling is shifting things in his favour.
There are a lot of Europeans in the constit-
uency, and “the university is enmeshed in
the eustructure.” A passing voter, Annette
Kupke, who was born in Lower Saxony,
concurs, complaining of “lies and deceit”
from the Tories. Sheltering from the rain in
the cosy nearby Riverside pub, a psycholo-
gist will vote snp“for tactical reasons: I
want to stop Brexit”.
But while the snpis expecting a lift, the
Tories, who two months ago looked like be-
ing wiped out in Scotland, may hang on to
most of 13 seats they won in 2017. For a party
that has held one seat, or none at all, for
most of the past two decades, that would be
quite a result. It will benefit from the per-
ception that the snp’s single-minded pur-
suit of independence has distracted it from
the business of running Scotland.
There is a regional dimension, too. The
snp’s centre of gravity is shifting. Its previ-
ous leader, Alex Salmond, a north-eastern
mp, was credited with improving its infra-
structure. Under Nicola Sturgeon, the party
has become more identified with the ur-
ban, central belt around Glasgow and Edin-
burgh, and with higher social spending.
That does not go down well in Scotland’swealthiest region, home of its biggest in-
dustries—farming, fishing, oil and gas.
A December election is testing the com-
mitment of snp canvassers in Gordon,
which the Tories also took last time. “It’s a
bit dreich [dreary],” says one of them, eye-
ing the weather in Insch, a grey Aberdeen-
shire village, where it has been raining, off
and on, all day. “It’s the mizzle [cloud that is
not quite drizzle] that’s worst,” responds
another. “We’re like Eskimos,” says Richard
Thomson, the snpcandidate, who is hop-
ing to take the seat back from the Conserva-
tives. “We have 50 words for rain.”
Mr Thomson’s leaflets focus on the
closeness of the race with the Tories in 2017,
and feature a blond mop so recognisable
that the face is unnecessary. Both the Tories
and the snpare presenting the election as a
binary choice. The snpwants to scoop up
remaining left-wing voters by crushing La-
bour; the Tories want to corner the union-
ist vote. Ms Sturgeon “is framing the elec-
tion exactly as I would want it to be
framed,” says a Conservative member of
the Scottish Parliament. “She’s turning the
union into a Tory proposition. Labour isn’t
getting a word in edgeways.”
Current polling suggests that Labour,
which won seven seats in 2017, may retain
only one. A silent pact between the snpand
the Tories to crush it is not the only reason
for its travails. Jeremy Corbyn, its leader,
said this week that he is “neutral” on Brexit;
and while not supporting Scottish inde-
pendence he is leaving open the possibility
of another referendum. By failing to take a
stand on either of the great issues exercis-
ing Scotland, he has succeeded in alienat-
ing all four groups of voters.
But Mr Corbyn is not the only politician
who does not much appeal to Scots right
now. According to Mr Smith in Stirling, the
first issue that voters raise on doorsteps is
neither Brexit nor independence: “It’s the
scunner [disgust] factor, attaching to poli-
tics and politicians.” 7No such uncertainty as a sure thingSources: House of Commons; Ipsos MORI;
Panelbase; Sir John CurticeScotland, Westminster seats at general elections
Total=59201520172019 (forecast)SNP Conservative Labour Lib Dem5611135 137446 81
4DingwallUllapoolPortreeGlasgow EdinburghInschAberdeenStirlingStirlingGordonLabourConservativeSNPLib DemRubbing out the redSource: Electoral CommissionScotland, Westminster seats
By party, 2017