58 China The EconomistNovember 30th 2019
2 prising 1,200 people chosen by methods
designed to marginalise democrats, who
have previously made up less than 30% of
the membership. But nearly 10% of the
seats are reserved for district councillors.
That bloc will now be controlled by suppor-
ters of greater democracy. Democrats will
still fall well short of a majority, and there
is no chance that a critic of the Communist
Party could become a candidate for chief
executive. But it is now more possible that
democrats could play a king-making role if
they align with other factions to back a cer-
tain contender.
Leaders in Beijing should be worried.
Unlike the mayhem of the past few
months, the orderly voting and the clear
verdict it delivered cannot easily be spun to
the Communist Party’s advantage. The
mainland’s media have avoided highlight-
ing the results. Instead they have tried to
portray the elections as unfair, with
pro-establishment candidates unable to
campaign properly because of a “black ter-
ror” unleashed by Western-backed protes-
ters, who have adopted that colour as their
symbol. On November 27th President Do-
nald Trump’s signing of laws supporting
democracy in Hong Kong gave added impe-
tus to China’s denunciations of Western
plots. The election results are likely to con-
firm Chinese officials’ belief that Hong
Kong needs to be ruled with a firmer hand.
Mrs Lam appears safe, for now. She says
the central government does not blame her
for the results. But she will find it tough to
keep her grip amid widespread grumbling
in the pro-establishment camp that her
failings—including her handling of the ex-
tradition bill—caused the electoral rout.
Her term is due to end in 2022. Some of the
government’s supporters privately say they
want her gone before then.
A few democrats would like to reopen
discussion about a proposal in 2014 by the
Chinese government that would allow the
public to vote for the next chief executive,
but only from a list of candidates approved
by the election committee. This was voted
down by pro-democracy legislators in 2015,
because they felt it would allow the Com-
munist Party to control the outcome. Some
now see merit in such a reform, given the
party’s resolute refusal to allow full democ-
racy. But Benny Tai, a lawyer and promi-
nent pro-democracy activist, says that
even if the proposal were to be revived, the
public would not accept it.
The elections have shown that in spite
of the Communist Party’s obduracy and the
economic harm that the protests have
caused, Hong Kongers still have a strong
appetite for democracy. When The Econo-
mistwent to press, a week had passed with-
out large protests on the streets. But activ-
ists say the lull is temporary. Unless Mrs
Lam makes a convincing move to satisfy
their demands, they will soon be back. 7F
or weeks Chinese state media have
been proudly reporting the progress of
two icebreakers, Xue Longand Xue Long2,
on their voyage to Antarctica. China has
maintained research bases in the Earth’s
southernmost region since the 1980s, but
the approach of these vessels (their names
mean “snow dragon”) has been described
as the start of a “new era” for the country’s
exploration there. Of about 20 countries
that have year-round bases on the conti-
nent, China’s activities are growing fastest.
After crashing through 12-foot waves
and nearly 200 nautical miles of ice floes,
the two ships drew close to one of China’s
stations, called Zhongshan, on Antarctica’s
eastern rim (they are pictured, led by Xue
Long2). On November 20th members of the
mission’s Communist Party committee
flew the final stretch by helicopter, bearing
fruit and vegetables for the base’s occu-
pants. It was a moment that China relished.
Xue Longis a Ukrainian vessel built in 1993.
But the newer of the “twin dragons”, as Chi-
na’s media calls its only two civilian ice-
breakers, was launched just last year. It is
far more powerful and manoeuvrable. And
crucially, as the country’s media keep
pointing out, it was made in China.
The country’s leader, Xi Jinping, says
China should become a “polar great pow-
er”. At the other end of the world, this ambi-
tion has long been evident. The country is
excited by possibilities in the Arctic as the
Earth warms: fish, minerals, oil and gas
that will become easier to extract; newshipping routes that will open up and
shorten journeys between China and Eu-
rope. To facilitate this, China has been
mulling the idea of building ports and oth-
er infrastructure in the Arctic.
The Antarctic has fewer obvious poten-
tial benefits for China’s economy. But it is
abuzz with Chinese activity. Last year Chi-
na began building its first permanent air-
port in the region. Chinese tourists have
been piling in: between 2015 to 2018, their
numbers more than doubled to about
8,100—second only to the number of Amer-
ican sightseers. In July an American air-
force general warned that Antarctica was
“just a number of years” away from becom-
ing as competitive an area as the Arctic,
where great powers are jostling for eco-
nomic and strategic advantages.
Such rivalry is supposed to be absent in
Antarctica. It is governed by the 54 signato-
ries of the Antarctic Treaty, which China
joined in 1983. One aim of the 60-year-old
pact is to keep Antarctica free of military
activity (unlike the Arctic, which is teem-
ing with it). China says it supports that.
But some Western analysts are suspi-
cious. Elizabeth Buchanan of the Austra-
lian National University says the treaty has
loopholes. It allows countries to use legiti-
mate scientific study as a cover for military
and economic projects. China has installed
equipment in Antarctica related to its sat-
ellite-navigation system, Beidou—which
since this year has been operating more
satellites than its American equivalent,
gps.The kit boosts the accuracy of weather
maps but also improves missile precision,
says Anne-Marie Brady, author of “China as
a Polar Great Power”. Some Western mili-
tary analysts believe that the crew on Chi-
na’s icebreakers, though dressed as civil-
ians, are really military personnel.
China has made it clear it wants more
say in governing Antarctica. It resents the
West’s sway there—evident, as it sees it, in
attempts by Western countries to desig-
nate protected areas where fishing is limit-
ed or banned. China sees these as a bid by
Western countries to “re-exert their domi-
nance over the southern ocean”, says Klaus
Dodds, who is a co-author of “The Scramble
for the Poles”.
China has a controversial proposal of its
own. It wants to establish an area under its
management in Dome A, a region of nearly
20,000 sq km to which Australia has a
largely symbolic claim. It includes the
highest point on the Antarctic ice sheet—
ideal for astronomical observation. China’s
plan, however, has no backers.
Western polar experts are divided over
how much to worry about China’s Antarctic
moves. Some believe the country’s main
aim is to develop “soft power”, such as by
co-operating with other countries in scien-
tific research. All agree on one thing, how-
ever. China wants a high profile there. 7China says it wants to be a “great polar
power”. Antarctica is in its sightsExploring the AntarcticHeading south
The dragons approach