The Globe and Mail - 27.03.2020

BASEBALL

Exposteamof1994quick

offthemarkinsimulated

gamewithExposof1981 B

HOCKEY

SidneyCrosbyfavoursNHL

goingdirectlytoplayoffs

whenplayresumes B

CYCLING

ThefamousTourdeFrance

racehasyettobeofficially

postponed B

SPORTS

B11-B

OTTAWA/QUEBECEDITION ■ FRIDAY,MARCH27,2020 ■ GLOBEANDMAIL.COM

S&P/TSX

13,371.

+231.

DOW

22,552.

+1,351.

S&P

2,630.

+154.

NASDAQ

7,797.

+413.

DOLLAR

71.04/1.

+1.12/-0.

GCAN10-YR

0.84%

-0.

OIL(WTI)

US$22.

-1.

GOLD(oz.)

US$1,651.

+17.

COMPANIES

A&WCANADA ......................B

CN..........................................B

CP ..........................................B

NORBORD..............................B

SAPUTO .................................B

OPINION

Oilpatch needsabridgetorecovery,

JeffreyJoneswrites B

ENTERTAINMENT

CirqueduSoleilcouldfacebankruptcy

iftheshowcan’tgoon B

MARKUSMOELLENBERG LARRYMACDOUGAL/THECANADIANPRESS

I

s the bear market already over?

After U.S. and Canadian

stocks posted their third con-

secutive day of gains on Thursday,

investors and analysts are asking

if the sharp sell-off of the past

month actually ended with a thud

on March 23.

The reason: The brisk rebound

since then has mirrored the sell-

off.

In its best three-day stretch

since 1933, the Standard & Poor’s

500 Index has rebounded by 438

points since its low on March 23 –

or nearly 20 per cent – a gain that

is close to qualifying as the start of

a new bull market. Canada’s S&P/

TSX Composite Index has risen by

2,198 points, or 19.7 per cent.

Not everyone is convinced that

stocks are in the clear, though.

“Though we expect the S&P

500 to be higher at year-end 2020,

we remain unconvinced that the

U.S. equity market has seen its ab-

solute lows for the year,” Lori Cal-

vasina, head of U.S. equity strate-

gy at RBC Capital Markets, said in

a note.

MARKETS,B

Bulltobear

toalmostbull

againina

matterofdays

DAVIDBERMAN

INVESTMENTREPORTER

ANALYSIS

Canada’s largest banks are field-

ing a deluge of requests to defer

payments on mortgages as busi-

nesses suffer from efforts to curb

the spread of the new coronavi-

rus and job losses multiply.

More than 213,000 requests for

mortgage deferrals – skipping

payments – have been completed

or are still being processed by the

country’s six largest banks. On

March 17, the banks announced a

program that allows customers

facing financial hardship as a re-

sult of COVID-19 to defer pay-

ments for up to six months.

Since then, they have raced to

keep up with demand. The pro-

gram was created quickly, in con-

sultation with the federalgovern-

ment, and all the major banks

have accumulated backlogs of re-

quests. Banks had to adjust sys-

tems and launch automated on-

line application portals in a bid to

approve deferrals more rapidly.

But the delays in response times

and confusion about how the de-

ferrals work have caused frustra-

tion for some bank customers.

“There’s huge demand for it,”

Mike French, head of real estate

secured lending at Toronto-Do-

minion Bank, said in an inter-

view. “We have a long queue of

applicants and expect continued

growth in demand for this relief.”

MORTGAGES,B

Morethan

200,

seekmortgage

deferralsfrom

bigbanks

JAMESBRADSHAW

BANKINGREPORTER

Realestate:CMHCtriplesthesizeofits

mortgage-purchaseprogramto$150-

billion B

The Canadian economy is headed into a
much deeper hole in the second quarter
than bank economists previously antici-
pated, as they scramble to slash their fore-
casts in the face of the unprecedented
shutdowns from COVID-19.
However, they predict that a dramatic
rebound is in store once lockdowns and
closings are eased in the months ahead,

aided by huge government programs

aimed at supporting the economy and

helping businesses and consumers.

New projections by Canada’s major

banks predict that second-quarter GDP

will shrink at an annualized rate of roughly

20 per cent to 30 per cent – more than dou-

ble the pace of contraction that the banks

had projected only a week ago. Widening

lockdowns, closings and social-distancing

measures have substantially amplified the

economic fallout for which the forecasters

had already been bracing.

But the banks see the economy roaring

back as soon as the shutdowns are re-

versed, flipping the switch on an economic

light that will be further brightened by bil-

lions in addedgovernment spending.

Some projections have gross domestic

product rebounding by 30 per cent to 40

per cent in the third quarter, on the as-

sumption that locked-down sectors will be

allowed to return to work by then.

OUTLOOK,B

Economistsseebigger

dropinGDPahead

Paceofcontractionhasmorethandoubledfrombankprojectionscompiledjustaweekago

DAVIDPARKINSONECONOMICSREPORTER

As of midday on Thursday, Barb Richard’s provi-

sions amounted to a package of pasta, two cups

of rice and a jar of peanut butter.

It’s not like she didn’t try to stock up. Ms.

Richard, 51, has been trying to prevent the spread

of COVID-19 by remaining inside her apartment

in Toronto, and staying away from stores. She

has been attempting to book a time slot for gro-

cery delivery from Metro, Walmart, the Corner-

shop app and the Grocery Gateway service own-

ed by Longo’s, with no luck. Thinking she could

maintain social distancing while using a pickup

service, she tried Metro’s – the closest available

location was more than 50 kilometres away. She

does not have a car.

“I’m not in a dire situation like other people

are,” Ms. Richard said.

“But I don’t want to have wasted this isolation

period by going to the store and contracting it, or

finding out I could have given it to someone

else.”

As social distancing becomes more wide-

spread, grocers are struggling to keep up with a

surge in demand for online delivery.

Until now, e-commerce has represented a very

small percentage of grocery sales. Many compa-

nies have not built enough capacity to handle a

sudden shift in people’s shopping habits.

“The demand has exploded for e-commerce,”

said Metro Inc. spokesperson Marie-Claude Ba-

con. The company has hired more people, but

there is a limit to how many delivery trucks with

refrigeration systems Metro can deploy.

GROCERIES, B

KadarAdensupervisesdeliveryordersataMetroinTorontoonThursday.CHRISTOPHERKATSAROV/THEGLOBEANDMAIL

Asonlineorderssurge,

grocersstruggletodeliver

Companiescaughtoffguardbythesuddenshiftinshoppinghabits

SUSANKRASHINSKYROBERTSON

RETAILINGREPORTER

[RETAIL]