The economy has deteriorated with stunning
speed. And the United States is hardly alone:
The U.N.’s International Labor Organization
estimates that the coronavirus outbreak could
lead to nearly 25 million job losses worldwide
and drain up to $3.4 trillion worth of income by
year’s end.
In the United States, a wave of layoffs has just
started, especially in industries most vulnerable
to an economic standstill: Travel, entertainment,
hotels, restaurants, retail stores — the heart of
the service sector, which makes up most of the
U.S. economy. Unemployment is sure to rise,
perhaps sharply, in the months ahead.
“The U.S. has 2.6 million waiters and waitresses,
nearly all of whom will be unemployed by
Friday,” said Michael Hicks, an economist
who directs Ball State University’s Center for
Business and Economic Research. “The April 3
jobs report (for March) will be the single-worst
monthly job report in U.S. history. The record
is 1.96 million job losses in September, 1945,
right after V-J Day.”
“We are already in recession,” said Robin Brooks,
chief economist at the Institute of International
Finance, an association of financial companies.
Brooks reckons that the U.S. gross domestic
product — the broadest gauge of economic
output — will fall at a 0.2% annual rate in the
January-March quarter and then by 3.6% in the
April-June period.
Even President Donald Trump, ever celebratory
of the economy’s performance on his watch,
conceded this week that the U.S. “may be”
heading toward a downturn.