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because it wouldn’t act fast enough or help people
who get laid off or can’t work.
That idea has been eclipsed by proposals to
send Americans cash payments to help them cope
with the crisis and boost spending power—a much
faster alternative. Trump has embraced a pro-
posal first floated by Utah Senator Mitt Romney
to disburse $1,000 checks. The president would
like them cut within two weeks. Democrats have
talked about more generous measures along the
same lines. Democratic Representatives Ro Khanna
of California and Tim Ryan of Ohio would send
checks of $1,000 to $6,000 to every American who
earned less than $65,000 last year, a group that
encompasses three-quarters of American workers.
But while few people will complain about receiv-
ing a check during an economic downturn, it’s not
at all clear that this would do much to improve
Americans’ overall view of the economy—or the
man presiding over it.
On March 17 the administration began seek-
ing support for a stimulus bill of up to $1.3 trillion,
while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pre-
pared his own broad stimulus, said to cost at least
$750 billion. But the 2008 financial crisis showed
that passing a large stimulus bill, even in a time of
extraordinary need, is an arduous undertaking.
Hurdles this time include philosophical objections
from Republicans in Congress to the size of the U.S.
budget deficit, already on track to exceed $1 trillion
in the current fiscal year.
Even a successful stimulus bill and aggressivemonetary policy carries no guarantee of shielding
the economy. “It really is depending heavily on
the spread of the virus, and the measures taken
to affect it and how long that goes on,” Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on March 15.
“And that’s just not something that’s knowable.”
While Trump faces a daunting obstacle to win-
ning a second term, he could win despite a reces-
sion. Increased political polarization has brought
approval ratings that are more fixed than in the
past—especially his. So far, that polarization seems
to extend to attitudes about coronavirus: Polls show
Republicans consider it far less of a threat than
Democrats and independents do.
But polarization cuts both ways. Historically,
incumbency has been a strong advantage and a rea-
son why most presidents win a second term. That
may no longer be the case. “We see it in congres-
sional elections,” says Emory’s Abramowitz. “The
advantage of incumbency is much smaller, because
voters just won’t cross party lines.”
If the financial crisis and recession are large
enough to overwhelm the partisan instinct,
Abramowitz suspects that the end result won’t
benefit Trump. “A recession is one thing that could
really penetrate people’s consciousness,” he says,
“because it shows up in real life—and not in a good
w a y.” �Joshua Green, with Christopher Condon
andJeffKearnsTHE BOTTOM LINE The coronavirus is crippling the economy
just at the time voters traditionally make up their minds about the
performance of an incumbent president.▲ At a March 16 briefing,
Trump urged that
gatherings be limited to
10 people