53BloombergBusinessweek March 23, 2020
Polls show his support remains at 90%. He is dismissive
of the media, the legislature, and the moneyed establishment,
relying on popular support and the military. His most fervent
followers appear at rallies holding aloft black crosses, often
labeled with the word “legislators.” Some add a poop emoji.
Bukele and his wife, Gabriela, are now the nation’s dom-
inant figures. Large color portraits of them hang in every
government building. A police commander in northern San
Salvador, pointing to the portraits, says this is the first govern-
ment that’s required him to hang such pictures in his office.
B
ehind Bukele’s appeal is a dire economic situation.
Every year, 60,000 Salvadorans enter the workforce,
while 5,000 jobs at most become available, according
to the Fundación Salvadoreña para el Desarrollo Económico
y Social, a conservative think tank. The 55,000 who don’t get
work have three options: enter the informal sector, meaning
street sales and off-the-books labor (almost three quarters of
economic activity); join the 2 million Salvadorans in the U.S.; or
join one of the gangs, which together have up to 70,000 mem-
bers. Most of the gangs were formed in Los Angeles. When
members were deported from the U.S. in the 1990s, they took
over swaths of territory, overwhelming security services.
Many of the country’s killings are gang-related and linked
to extensive extortion rackets. Huge numbers of businesses
pay gangs daily or monthly fees to be left alone. Homicide in
El Salvador has been dropping steadily for the past few years,
especially in recent months. During 2015 and 2016, there were
17 or 18 murders a day; in February 2020, the least violent
month in decades, there were fewer than four, on average.
But how much credit Bukele deserves is a matter of debate.
His chief of police, Mauricio Arriaza Chicas, said in an
interview that the last time there was a decline in killings was
in 2012 when the government cut a truce with the gangs. The
deal included privileges for leaders in prison (strippers, food
delivery, Wi-Fi). When the truce collapsed a couple of years
later, the country saw its worst homicide rate ever in 2016—
more than 100 per 100,000, the equivalent of a war zone.
Under Bukele’s crackdown, gang members in prison have
been cut off from members on the street to reduce their power.
Police have been provided with new protective gear and boots,
equipment has been improved, and saturation policing, in
which security forces focus on trouble spots, has become wide-
spread. It seems to be working, but some people say the prob-
lemhasshifted,andthepolicearen’tadjustingrapidlyenough.
Paul Consoli, a U.S. military and law enforcement intelligence
specialist who works as a consultant in El Salvador, says he’s
seen data suggesting the gangs have grown more sophisticated
in their extortion schemes. They’re buying up private security
firms and using them to collect money, reducing their need
to kill while preserving the outlaw nature of the society. The
homicide decline, he worries, hides the truth.
A year ago, President Trump cut off about $500 million in
aid to all of Central America, complaining that governments
weren’t doing enough to stop migration into the U.S. Aid has
startedtoflowback,butthestoppagehascomplicatedBukele’s
efforts.Insomefashion,allofthecountry’sproblems—emi-
gration, violence,drug trafficking,underdevelopment,
andcorruption—have U.S. ties, and American investment is
therefore seen as central to its success. As Foreign Minister
Alexandra Hill says, “El Salvador is now open for business,
and the U.S. is priority Nos. 1, 2, and 3.” After he was elected,
Bukele cut ties with Nicolás Maduro’s government in Venezuela
and promised to be careful about Chinese investments, actions
that seemed designed to please the U.S.
The American Embassy has reciprocated, encouraging
investment in textiles and services. It’s also helped build up
the country’s tourism industry by sending delegations to and
from Hawaii and California. Orlando Menendez, co-owner
of Puro Surf, a boutique hotel in the beach town of El Zonte,
says Bukele is the first president to understand the value of
the sport to the country: “As others have said, if you want to
stop emigration to the U.S., don’t build a wall. Make jobs.” On
March 12, Moody’s Investors Service raise the country’s rating
from stable to positive, saying conditions had improved and
government liquidity risks had declined.
One significant resource for El Salvador is Howard Buffett,
son of Warren. A farmer and former Archer Daniels Midland
Co. executive who got involved in helping with water and
crops in Central America, Buffett became friendly with a
Salvadoran farming family. When he was visiting several
years ago, they told him they couldn’t bring crops to mar-
ket without paying protection money. “They had a line of
trucks outside, and the gangs came up and said they have to
pay $100 a month or they’ll kill their drivers,” Buffett recalls.
“We realized we were missing an important aspect. Rule of
law has become the most critical piece to success.”
Buffett shifted his focus in El Salvador to law enforcement,
buying equipment for the police and pledging $25 million
for a top-of-the-line forensics lab and database that’s already
being built. He met Bukele when he was mayor of the cap-
ital and liked him immediately. The American played a key
role in rebuilding Cuscatlán, San Salvador’s central park. Once
filled with trash and frequented by drug dealers, it reopened
in September after a $22 million makeover. Now it’s an excep-
tionally welcoming space for mothers and children, with art
displays and free courses in music, English, and yoga.
Bukele’s decision to bring the military into the legisla-
ture on Feb. 9, Buffett hopes, was a bad call by Bukele and
not part of a pattern. <BW>“As others havesaid,
if youwant to stop
emigration to theU.S.,
don’t builda wall.
Make jobs”