A2| Saturday/Sunday, April 4 - 5, 2020 **** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
in using a technique devised
by the late industrial quality-
control expert W. Edwards
Deming, who sold the idea as
a cost-cutting measure.
“If they allowed imputa-
tion and substituted a spe-
cific value for a missing
value, they could save a sig-
nificant amount of money on
printing costs because you
wouldn’t have to print un-
known lines,” Dr. Hogan said.
“That’s how it started.”
Every penny counts; thisyear’s census will cost an es-
timated $15.6 billion.
There are three scenarios
when information is typically
imputed, Dr. Hogan said.
A census response might
record the number of resi-
dents living at an address
and some but not all of their
characteristics. It might re-
cord the number of residents
living at the address but none
of their characteristics. Or
the bureau might get nothing
at all—not even a head count.THE NUMBERS|By Jo Craven McGinty
How the Census Bureau Fills in the Blanks
Once a de-
cade, the U.S.
Census Bureau
tries to get a
precise head
count of ev-
eryone living in the country.
The numbers are used to
divvy up political power and
divide billions of dollars in
federal money. How much a
state gets will depend on its
population.
The largest receive more
seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives and a bigger
share of spending on educa-
tion, transportation, Medic-
aid, food assistance and doz-
ens of other programs.
B
ut bits of information
get omitted when 140
million households fill
out a questionnaire—even
when the country isn’t in the
middle of a pandemic. The
missing fragments might in-
clude characteristics such as
age, sex or race. In the worst
case, no information is pro-
vided at all.
Rather than ignore the
lapses, the bureau first tries
to retrieve the data by send-
ing out census takers to col-
lect it in person. If that fails,
it fills in gaps with imputa-
tions that infer missing val-
ues from known data points.
That’s when things can
get contentious.
Indiana blamed imputa-
tions for the seat it lost to
Florida after the 1980 census
and sued to get the numbers
overturned. Utah lost a seat
to North Carolina after the
2000 census and in a case
that reached the U.S. Su-
preme Court argued that im-
putations, which contributed
to the loss, were prohibited
by the Census Act and the
Constitution.
In each case, the courts
decided the mathematical
modeling was allowed, and
the reapportionments stood.
Historically, when infor-
mation couldn’t be retrieved
from residents of a house-
hold, census takers made do
with material obtained from
proxies, such as neighbors,
landlords or postal workers.
If the missing data couldn’t
be obtained from either the
residents or their proxies, it
was recorded as unknown.
“In 1930, they were still
publishing what was not re-
ported,” said Howard Hogan,
retired chief demographer of
the Census Bureau. “If you
didn’t know your age, the
census would report it in the
last row as unknown.”
That changed in 1940,
when missing data was filledIn the first two situations,
the bureau can impute the
missing data based on the
characteristics of the other
household members or
neighbors. The third sce-
nario is more complicated.
“Then you have to start at
the bottom,” Dr. Hogan said.
“You have to impute the
count and then the charac-
teristics.”
Amy O’Hara, a research
professor at the McCourt
School of Public Policy at
Georgetown University, who
was formerly chief of the
center for administrative-re-
cords research and applica-
tions at the Census Bureau,
described the process like
this: “If you could look down
from the sky and point to a
rooftop and say you don’t
have an answer from that
one, but you have answers
from all others, you can use
the information from the
other units to fill in the
missing information.”
In 2000, around 1.2 mil-
lion people, or 0.4% of the
population, were added to
the census through count
imputation. The bureau de-
termined most of the miss-
ing data was caused by pro-
cessing errors, and without
the corrections, people who
had responded to the censuswould have been left out be-
cause of the mistakes. In
1970 and 1980, the propor-
tion was similar, and in 1990,
it was only about 0.02%.T
his year, the bureau
faces additional hur-
dles in trying to count
the population. The possibil-
ity of including a citizenship
question raised concerns
that it would discourage im-
migrants from participating.
(The question wasn’t added.)
And the coronavirus pan-
demic has caused the bureau
to temporarily suspend field
operations and push back
the response deadline to
Aug. 14.
But this decennial census
also has an advantage over
previous years: For the first
time, the bureau has
strongly encouraged every-
one to respond online.
So far, just over a third of
the country has complied.
The bureau predicts that
60.5% of the population will
self-respond, compared with
63.5% in 2010—and the more
who do, the better.
“We hope to limit the
amount of follow-up and im-
putation,” said Virginia Hyer,
spokeswoman for the bu-
reau. “The best response is a
self-response.”PERCENTAGEOFHOUSEHOLDSU.S. households can respond to the 2020 census online, by mail or
phone through Aug. 14.Responserate,asofApril0% 30% 35% 40% 50%N.J.Conn.Md.Del.R.I.D.C.
TexasCalif.Mont.Ariz.Nev.IdahoColo.N.M.UtahOre.Wyo.Ill.
Kan.Neb. IowaS.D.Fla.Minn.Okla.N.D.
Wis.Ala. Ga.Mo.Ark.La.N.Y.
Pa.
Ind.Tenn. N.C.Ky.Mich.Va.Miss.OhioS.C.MaineW.Va.Vt.N.H.Mass.Wash.HawaiiAlaskaSource: U.S. Census BureauN95 masks were loaded
into the New England Patriots’
team plane in Shenzhen,
China, on Wednesday. A photo
caption in some editions Fri-
day with a Coronavirus Pan-
demic article about the flight
incorrectly said they were
loaded into the plane on
Thursday and misspelled the
city’s name as Shenzhnen.The April issueof WSJ.
Magazine went to press beforethe coronavirus pandemic led
to widespread closures and
cancellations. For updates to
individual articles, please visit
WSJ.com/Magazine.Liz Lambertfounded Bunk-
house Group but is no longer
actively involved in the hotel
company’s day-to-day opera-
tions. An article in the April
issue of WSJ. Magazine about
Austin, Texas, implied that Ms.
Lambert owns Bunkhouse.Readers can alert The Wall Street Journal to any errors in news articles by
[email protected] by calling 888-410-2667.CORRECTIONSAMPLIFICATIONS
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U.S. WATCH
Award winner, who withdrew
from making music in the
mid-1980s, died on Monday in Los
Angeles, the family said. His death
comes as the public has drawn in-
spiration from his music during
the coronavirus pandemic, with
health-care workers, choirs, artists
and more posting their own rendi-
tions on “Lean on Me” to help get
through the difficult times.
Mr. Withers’s songs during his
brief career have become thesoundtracks of countless engage-
ments, weddings and backyard
parties. They have powerful mel-
odies and perfect grooves melded
with a smooth voice that con-
veys honesty and complex emo-
tions without vocal acrobatics.
“Lean on Me,” a paean to
friendship, was performed at the
inaugurations of both Barack
Obama and Bill Clinton. “Ain’t No
Sunshine” and “Lean on Me” are
among Rolling Stone’s list of the
500 Greatest Songs of All Time.
He was inducted into the
Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in
2015 by Stevie Wonder.
—Associated PressWISCONSINMan Arrested in
Deaths at UniversityThe 18-year-old man arrested
in the slayings of a University of
Wisconsin physician and her
husband is known to the family,
police said Friday.
University of Wisconsin Police
Chief Kristen Roman said that
Khari Sanford has been arrested
on two counts of party to the
crime of first-degree intentional
homicide. The bodies of Dr. Beth
Potter, 52, and Robin Carre, 57,
were found Tuesday in the uni-
versity’s arboretum, which is
several miles from the Madison
campus. Mr. Sanford was ar-
rested Thursday night after in-
vestigators worked numerous
tips from members of the com-
munity, Chief Roman said.
—Associated PressSPRING RUSH: The scenic Great Falls, between the towns of Lewiston and Auburn in Maine, roared on Friday morning after the recent rains and snowmelt.
RUSS DILLINGHAM/SUN JOURNAL/ASSOCIATED PRESSThe unprecedented sports
hiatus has left fans longing for
the games they love. Gamblers
have an extra hole to fill. With-
out normal sports to bet on,
they’re desperately searching
for substitutes.
It’s gotten pretty weird. On a
single day last week, American
bettors wagered more than
$100,000 on Russian table ten-
nis matches at William Hill’s
sportsbook, said Nick Bog-
danovich, the bookmaker’s U.S.
director of trading.
Betting sites featuring
sports, scrambling to buoy
their businesses, are offering
bets on everything from the
weather to a proposed Oasis re-
union to benefit the U.K.’s Na-
tional Health Service. People
are laying money on their fa-
vorite TV shows and ones
they’ve never even watched be-
fore. They’re even betting on
videogame simulations of foot-
ball games.
“Even with action on it, it
was still kind of boring to
watch,” said Adam Hayden, a
safety consultant in Kentucky
who successfully bet on the
Continued from Page One
COURTS
Trump Names Pick
For Appellate Court
President Trump is nominat-
ing a 37-year-old judge and for-
mer clerk to Supreme Court Jus-
tice Brett Kavanaugh to a seat
on the powerful U.S. Court of
Appeals for the District of Co-
lumbia Circuit.
Justin Walker of Kentucky has
been on the federal bench less
than six months and is one of the
youngest federal judges in the
country, with deep ties to Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,
a Kentucky Republican. Sen.
McConnell called Mr. Walker “an
outstanding legal scholar and a
leading light in a new generation
of federal judges.”
Liberal groups were far less
impressed. Christopher Kang,
chief counsel for Demand Jus-tice, a liberal activist group that
has opposed most of Trump’s ju-
dicial nominees, called for an in-
vestigation into whether Sen.
McConnell “manufactured” the
vacancy by pressuring Judge
Thomas Griffith to retire.
Mr. Walker drew a “Not Qual-
ified” rating from the American
Bar Association when Mr. Trump
nominated him last year to be a
federal judge in Kentucky.
—Associated PressOBITUARY‘Lean on Me’ Artist
Bill Withers, 81Bill Withers, who wrote and
sang a string of soulful songs in
the 1970s that have stood the
test of time, including “Lean on
Me,” “Lovely Day” and “Ain’t No
Sunshine,” has died from heart
complications. He was 81.
The three-time Grammyfake Green Bay Packers to beat
the fake Chicago Bears in Mad-
den NFL, the videogame fran-
chise, last month. He wagered
on Bovada, a betting website
that offered bets on the virtual
competition.
“People are at home, they’re
looking for something to do
and there’s no sports on,” said
Anne Juceam, who runs Reality
Fantasy League, a website that
turns TV shows into fantasy
sports competitions. As with
other fantasy leagues, many
groups of friends join and then
bet among themselves.
Ms. Juceam’s website is
surging in popularity, and peo-
ple like Dave Duberstein are the
reason why. A political consul-
tant in Washington, Mr. Duber-
stein has been in the same fan-
tasy baseball league with his
brother since 2006. Now that’s
on hold, and he “needed some
sort of action,” he said.
That’s when a friend called
with an unusual proposition:
fantasy “Top Chef,” the reality
cooking competition show. The
rules for the fantasy version
are simple: you draft the real-
life contestants and receive
points for competitions they
win.
Each player in Mr. Duber-
stein’s league drafted five chefs.
Mr. Duberstein tried to scout
the available options, but
quickly realized that “it’s
tougher to find the peripheral
stats of these chefs” than it is
for baseball players. So he tooka different approach: He went
to the websites of a restaurant
each chef cooks at and made
picks based on which menu he
deemed better.
With the second overall pick,
Mr. Duberstein took Jennifer
Carroll, the executive chef at
Philadelphia’s Spice Finch,
which serves Mediterranean
delicacies like shakshuka and
date-braised lamb shank.“I remembered her from an-
other season she was on and
thought she was a bad-ass
chef,” Mr. Duberstein said. “I
wanted someone I could root
for.”
Mr. Duberstein and his pals
aren’t oddballs. On Reality Fan-
tasy League, there are triple the
number of users for this season
of “Top Chef” compared with
last year, Ms. Juceam said.
Traditional sportsbooks and
fantasy websites are scraping
to make do. There have been
more than 300,000 entries in
DraftKings pools over the pastcouple of weeks, where people
have won around $100,
based on programs like ABC’s
“Shark Tank.” Some places
have begun offering bets based
on the high temperature in
given cities. Sportsbetting.com
has set lines for how many
times President Trump will say
words like “tremendous” in his
daily press briefing.
Michaela Rael couldn’t
watch her beloved Denver Nug-
gets or Colorado Avalanche, so
she tuned in to another popular
program: “Jeopardy!” “I had
never actually watched the
show,” she said.
But she wasn’t just watching
to see if she could beat the ac-
tual contestants. She was com-
peting in a game of her own:
betting $5 to $10 on every epi-
sode with family and friends
who were also sheltering in
place and watching.
Danny Belks was crushed
when the games of his favorite
team, Sheffield Wednesday, in
the second tier of English soc-
cer, were canceled. Mr. Belks is
a frequent sports bettor on soc-
cer and horse racing and in-
sisted on finding an actual
sport for his action. Which is
how a guy in Sheffield, Eng-
land, found himself glued to his
screen watching Russian table
tennis and South African horse
racing.
“I never thought I’d have to
stoop that low,” Mr. Belks said.
“This is what coronavirus has
brought me to.”Sports End,
But Bets
Continue
Table stakes