B0866B8FNJ

On plague in a time of Ebola

Cormac Ó Gráda

Figure 1a Cumulative cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Ma r-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Ma r-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15

Total Cases, Guinea Total Cases, Liberia Total Cases, Sierra Leone

Figure 1b Cumulative death rates (dr) in in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

2014.2 2014.4 2014.6 2014.8 2015 2015.2 2015.4

Date

Guinea Liberia

Sierra Leone

Public action

Why did plague recede in Western Europe during the 16th and 17th centuries? Why
had it not done so earlier? The most likely reason is increasingly effective public action
in the form of quarantining, removing foul-smelling refuse, and draconic measures
against infringement. Such action, which is likely to have reduced the likelihood of
transmission from fleas (and lice) to humans, required credible sanctions and a degree of