14 The good thing about
coronavirus
Charles Wyplosz
Graduate Institute, Geneva and CEPR
It is far too early to know whether the coronavirus epidemic will have been just a huge
scare or a major disaster. Some epidemiologists fear that half of the world’s population
may be infected. With a mortality rate of 2%, this means that 1% of the currently living
could be wiped out. The toll would be 78 million people, a bit less than the population
of Germany or Turkey. There are no words to describe such a threat.
How can one think of a ‘good thing’ about this immense threat, then? So far, at least,
the epidemic looks like a giant Rorschach test, those coloured inkblots that reveal your
personality, except that it reveals the nature of governments and, more widely, societies.
It is fascinating to observe how governments are reacting to the threat. Even if the
epidemic soon disappears, eventually its fallout could be spectacular – for the better or
the worse.
Take China, a country whose government has been keen to promote worldwide its
autocratic and secretive regime. The initial cover-up was unsustainable and forced the
government into a U-turn that all citizens could see – a rare event. The famous hospital
built in ten days looked like a massive achievement, until it backfired when the health
system became visibly overwhelmed, in effect abandoning scores of sick people. The
tight limitations imposed on the population may eventually be efficient, but they have
violated elementary human rights. Even though most citizens are under no illusion
about the nature of the regime, this is a traumatic experience.
Similar observations apply to other autocratic and secretive regimes. Iran’s unbelievable
numbers of reported cases and deaths will eventually blow up. Russia is likely to follow
the same path, as it did with AIDS a while ago. As we know from the Chernobyl case,
people are deeply hurt when they discover that their governments chose to protect the
regime over their own lives. There is always a price to pay, sooner or later.