Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

86 SPECIAL PROVIDENCE

shapingAmericanforeignpolicytowardtheirrespectiveoldcountries,
thepoliticalprocesstakesnoteoftheirstrengthandprovidesthemat
leasta modicumofsatisfaction.
Thereis anotheradvantagetothedemocraticnatureoftheAmerican
processthathascomeintoplayduringtheColdWar.Itisbecausepoli-
ticsdrivesforeignpolicythattheUnitedStateshasbeenabletocontinue
tofollowaneconomicallyoriented,order-buildingforeignpolicydespite
theinfluenceofContinentalrealismamongforeignpolicyintellectuals.
Ourofficialsmaythinkthatmissilepayloadsandstrategiccompetition
aremoreintellectuallyinterestingthanfreetradeandfreeinternational
capitalflows,butpoliticalpressureforcesthemtorespondtoeconomic
issues.Similarlypoliticalleadersmaysecretlythinkthatmoralshaveno
properplaceininternationalpolitics,buttoavowthisviewpointopenly
andtoactonitwouldbepoliticalsuicide.
GiventhattheforeignpolicyprocessintheUnitedStatesarrivesat
solutionsandcompromisesthatmoreorlesssatisfythevariousgroups
whowantsomethingfromAmericanforeignpolicy,wemuststillask
whytheresultsofthedomesticprocessmatchconditionsintheoutside
world-whythepolicythatpleases Americaninterestgroupsshould
somehowoverthelongrunalsoworkrelativelyeffectivelyoutsidethe
country.Ifa specialprovidenceisatworkinAmericanaffairs,guiding
thecountrytocontinuingsuccess,itissurelyatworkhere:Somehow
thejanglingandperpetualjostlingandquarrelsofourdomesticinter-
estgroupsworkthemselvesouttomandatepoliciesthatturnouttobe
practical.
Itdoesn'talwaysendthisway.Thereareexamplesofcountrieswhose
domesticpoliticalprocessesgenerateforeign policiesbackedbya strong
nationalconsensusthatleadtodisaster.Francemarchedenthusiastically
against Prussiain 1870,asvirtuallyevery interestgroup insociety
cheered NapoleonIIIintowhatprovedtobea catastrophicwar. Nor
dowe havetolookoverseas forsuch miscarriages.Theprotectionist
Hawley-SmootTariff,nowwidelyblamedfordeepeningthedepression,
was broadlypopularatthetime;pollsshowedconsistentsupportfor
theVietnamWaruntiltheTetoffensiveof1968.Butwedonotneedto
showthattheAmericanforeignpolicyprocessisinfallible;wemerely
seektounderstandwhyitworksaswellasithas.

W

hatseemstohappenintheUnitedStatesisthatthereisa set

ofdeeplyrootedapproachestoforeignpolicythatinformsthe