Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

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reliablepreciselybecausepublicopinionisimperfectlyreflectedinthe
government.Governmentscanadoptandpursuepoliciesthathave no
backinginsociety.Thosepoliciescanlastuntilthegovernmentfallsin
chaosandconfusion,tobereplaced,perhaps,bya regimethatlurches
equallyuncertainlyinanotherunsuitabledirection.Thereis nothing
abstractaboutthisargument.ThemonarchsofEuropewereconstantly
wobblingontheirthronesinthenineteenthcentury;whenrevolution-
ariesdidn'tbringthemdown,assassinsshotthem.Policiesindemocra-
ciesarelesslikelytodivergefromwhatis politicallypopular,andwhen
democratic governmentsfall there is less dangerofan overshoot in
anotherdirection.Democraticpoliciesarepulledtowardthecenterand
towarda rationalconceptofinterest,argueWilsonians;thatmakesthem
morepredictableandmorelikelytokeeppromisesoncemade.Wilsoni-
ansthinkofmonarchical,oligarchic,andtyrannicalstatesasresembling
pyramidsbalancedontheirnoses;democraciesarelikepyramidsstand-
ingontheirbases.Thefirstkindaremuchmorelikelytomoveviolently
andmassivelyinunpredictableways.
Inparticular,democracyguardsagainstoneofthemostdangerous
formsofmisrepresentationandmisgovernance: thedominationofthe
statebya militaryelite.Suchmilitarystatesmay,andfrequentlydo,pre-
ferwartopeace;warconsolidatesmilitaryauthorityandensuresmilitary
controloverresources.Itisonlycivilianswhobenefitfrompeaceand
onlydemocracy,sayWilsonians,ensuresthatthemillionswhoseekpeace
cancontrolthethousandswhowantwar.Toputitina nutshell:Tyrants
givepowertogenerals;democraciesgiveittomoms.
Furthermoreovertimedemocraciesarelikelytomovetowardincreas-
ingdegreesofmoralandpoliticalagreement.Mass-ledsocietiesaremore
likeoneanotherthansocietiesdirectedbyindividualsorsmallclasses.
This homogeneityleads toincreasingdegrees ofagreementover the
properconstitutionandrulesofinternationalsociety;democraciesare
morelikelytoagreethanarearistocraticormonarchicalstates.
Democraciesarealsoreliablebecausetheytendtoprosper.Successful
capitalismdependsontheruleoflaw,anddemocraticgovernmentsmore
thananyothersarelikelyovertimetodevelopfairandeffectivelegalsys-
tems.Atthesametime,becausevotersrewardpoliticianswhosepolicies
leadtoeconomicgrowthandpunishthosedeemedresponsibleforreces-
sions,democraticstatesovertimecanbeexpectedtomoveincreasingly
towardeffectiveeconomicpolicy.
Finally,theseadvantagestendtoincreaseovertimeasdemocracies