Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

TheRiseandRetreatoftheNewWorldOrder 287

firstplace,exhilaratedWilsoniansoverestimatedtheirabilitytoachieve
rapid,sweepingchangewithminimalAmericaninvestments.Adecade
ofAmericanadviceandaidinRussiaendedwithRussianpublicopinion
muchmoreprofoundlyalienatedfrom,andsuspiciousof, theUnited
States thanit hadbeen in 1989. In retrospectthe Wilsonian belief
thatRussiacouldbequicklyandeasilyremodeledintoa Western-style
democracyseemsbasedona misreadingofhistory.GermanyandJapan
becamedemocraciesafter1945,butthosecountrieshadbeendefeated
andoccupied.Russiain 1989 wasmoreliketheGermanyof 1919 than
theGermanyof1945.ThebroadfailureofAmericanpolicytocreatea
stable,friendlydemocraticRussiatoldheavilyagainsttheWilsonians,
whohadarguedthatpreciselythisoutcomewaspossible.
Wilsonianssimilarlyoverestimatedthestrengthofdemocraticforces
inChina,~ndtheabilityoftheUnitedStatestoinfluenceChinesebehav-
iorbyeitherpromisesorthreats.Theenthusiasmof 1989 inducedmany
WilsonianstothinkthatthestudentdemocracymovementinChinahad
a realisticchanceoftakingpowerandleadingthatcountryina demo-
cratic direction. Wilsonian misreading ofChina was nothing new.
WilsonianshadhailedSunYat-sen'srevolutioninthebeliefthatheand
hisbackershadthecapacitytoleadChinatowarda democraticfuture.
ChiangKai-shekbenefitedfroma similarillusion.
Once theChinesegovernmenthad suppressedthestudent move-
ment, Wilsonianshoped thatAmericanthreats andsanctionswould
forceChinatochangecourse.Thishopequicklyprovedunfounded,as
theUnitedStateswasforcedtoabandontheuseoftradesanctionsto
forcehumanrightsimprovementsinChina.Aftera decadeofeconomic
growth,studentopinioninChinahadmovedaway fromdemocratic
idealstowarda prickly,anti-Americannationalism.When,inthecourse
oftheWilsonian-supportedwaragainstYugoslavia,theUnitedStates
bombedChina'sembassyinBelgrade,thestudent-workercoalitionthat
oncemarchedfordemocracymarchedontheU.S.EmbassyinBeijing.
Thisagainwas probablya questionofmisjudgingthetimingand
underestimatingthecomplexityofchangeinChinaratherthanmisread-
ingtheoveralldirectionofthecountry.Withhundredsofthousandsof
ChinesestudentsreturningfromstudiesintheUnitedStates,thelong-
termimpactofAmericanvaluesinChinawill beextensiveanddeep.
YetitdoesnotfollowthatChinais movingquicklyorsmoothlytoward
a democratic ordertoday,any more than thepresenceofAmerican-
educatedChineseamongtherevolutionaryeliteof 191 I implieditthen.