Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

TheRiseandRetreatoftheNewWorldOrder 299

powerwasfatedtodecline.TheobviousupsurgeinAmericaninterna-
tional standingand economicpowerofthe 1990S tookthemaback.
LargelyisolatedinopposingtheGulfWar,Jeffersonianstookanother
blowwhenthewarendedinaneasyvictorywithneithertheheavycasu-
altiesnorthepoliticalproblemsthatmanyJeffersonianshadpredicted.
WhentheBalkaninterventionsdidnotendinunmitigated,cleardisas-
ters,Jeffersoniancroakingaboutthedangersofintervention,thearro-
ganceofpower,andthecostsofimperialoverreachhadlostmostoftheir
credibility.Jeffersonianscontinuedtocrywolfinthe1990S,butfewer
andfewerpeoplelistened.
Jacksoniansgainedpowerandself-assuranceduringtheperiod.Early
inthe1990StheywerestillensorcelledbytheColdWar,whenanyasser-
tionofAmericanidealsorinterestsabroadwasseenasa moveagainsta
rivalsuperpowerina zero-sumcompetition.Forseveralyearsafterthe
endoftheColdWar,Jacksonianswereswayedbytheideathatwherethe
UnitedStateshadoncecontainedcommunism,itwasnowourjobto
containchaos.Ifdisorderbrokeoutinonepartoftheglobe,malefactors
inother continentswouldbe encouragedby itsspread. IfSaddam's
aggressionwentunpunishedinKuwait,someonemighttrythesame
thinginAfricaorAsia.
Jacksoniansrealized onlygraduallythatthey didn'treally care if
chaosspread in centralMrica.An unpunishedgenocidein Rwanda
mightencourageethnicslaughterinAssamorLiberia,butJacksonians
awokefromthefeverdreamoftheColdWarandfoundthattheycould
livewiththeseoutcomesmoreeasilythantheyhadthought.Whilethese
ethnicslaughterswereallverysad,fromthestandpointoftheAmerican
folkitmightbebettertohavehalfa dozenslaughtersinprogressthanto
haveAmericantroopsinharm'swayinhalfa dozenfesteringworldtrou-
blespots.
Whatwentfortroops also wentformoney. Whencorruptthird-
worldgovernmentscouldthreatentoturntotheSovietsifwedenied
theirrequestsforforeignaid,Jacksonianopinionsighed,butpaidup.
TakeawaytheSoviets,however,andtherewasnolongera threat.What
wouldanAfricanrepublicdoiftheUnitedStatesturneditdown?Turn
toFrance?Tantpis,saidJacksonianAmerica:Somuchthebetter.With
theColdWarover,Jacksonianssawnoparticularvalueinbuyinginflu-
encewithsoldiers,moneyortradeconcessions.LetEuropepolicethe
Balkans,andiftheyfail,somuchtheworseforthem.LetJapanbailout
theThais.LettheIMFgoitsownway.