Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

308 SPECIALPROVrOENCE

toplaceontheinternationalsystem.Weshouldbeconservingourpres-
entpowerandallianceswhileavoidingunnecessaryconflictswithpoten-
tially hostilecountries likeChina. They had objectedto Wilsonian
overreaching inthe Clintonadministration;Jacksonian overreaching
underBushwouldpleasethemnobetter.Thestatusquoworkspretty
wellfortheUnitedStates,theybelieved,andtherewasnoreasonforthe
U.S.,ofallcountries,toneedlesslydestabilizeinternationalpolitics---or
torungreatrisksforuncertainrewards.
TheearlymonthsoftheBushadministrationsawthefollowers of
thesetwoschoolswrestlingforcontrolofAmericanforeignpolicy.Jack-
sonianswanteda hardlinewithChinaandNorthKorea,a quickdecision
todeploya missiledefensesystemwithoutextendednegotiationswith
eitherRussiaortheallies,andU.S.withdrawalfromsuchWilsonian
internationalinitiativesastheKyotoProtocolonglobalwarmingand
theestablishmentofapermanentinternationalcriminalcourt.Someof
thesebattlestheywonaridsometheylost,buttheJacksonianattemptto
recastAmericanforeignpolicyasanexerciseinunilateralhegemonyis
bothdramaticandambitious.
TheAmericanforeignpolicyprocessrarelysatisfiestheexpectations
ofthedoctrinallypure,however,anditseemsatleastlikelythatthe
Jacksonian defense intellectualsnow attempting to set the national
agendawillfindthelimitsplacedbyeventsontheirinitiativesunusually
chafing.ByAugust2001,thenewteamhadalreadyhadtoreturntothe
bargainingtablewithNorthKorea,seekRussianunderstandingonmis-
siledefense,turntheothercheektoChineseprovocationsfollowingthe
forcedlandingofanAmericanspyplaneonHainanIsland,acceptthe
indefiniteextensionoftheU.S.militarypresenceintheBalkans,and
turntotheIMFtobailoutkeyAmericanallieslikeTurkey,Argentina,
andBrazil.AdividedCongress,witha narrowlyRepublicanHouseand
a razor-thinDemocraticmajorityintheSenate,ensuresthatthepartisans
ofallfourschoolswill bewellplacedtoinfluenceAmericanforeign
policyontheissuesthatmattermosttothem.WithintheRepublican
coalition,Jacksoniansupportfora strongmilitary(anda well-stocked
militaryporkbarrel)clasheswithJeffersonianzealforlowertaxes,bal-
ancedbudgets,andsmallergovernment.Congressionalelectionsin 2002
andtheapproachofthepresidentialcontestof 2004 willforceAmerican
foreignpolicymakerstowardpoliciesthatcancommandbroadpublic
support-adynamicthatoftenundercutssupportersofa clearbutcon-
troversialforeignpolicydirection.
TheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,likesomanyofitspredecessors,