Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

320 SPECIALPROVIDENCE

schoolswasabletoachievea substantialportionofitsagenda-butthe
periodendedwithwhatalltheschoolshadmostwishedtoavoid:a world
war.Theparadoxesdon'tstopthere.Whilethewarwasthedisasterthat
everypolicyschoolhadhopedtoprevent,theoutcomeofthewarwas
evenmorefavorablefortheUnitedStatesthanthatofWorldWarI.
Moreover,withtheendofWorldWarIIitsoonbecameclearthatthe
fourschoolshadlearnedsomethingfromtheinterwarperiod;thepassive
consensusofthetwentiesandthirtiesyieldedtotheunitedandactivist
ColdWarconsensusofthenextgeneration.
Stalematedbytheevenlybalancedschools,eachcapableofexercising
a veto,nonecapableofleadership,theAmericangovernmentworked
harderthaneverbeforeatforeignpolicyafter 1919 buthadlessthanever
before toshowfor it. Thedomesticstalemateprevented the United
Statesfromactingeffectively,andforcedittowaitpassivelyonevents.
AsthethreattoAmericansecuritybecamemorerealandfocused,the
countrybegantocometogether,andbythetimeJapanattackedPearl
Harbor,thefourschoolsunitedtosuccessfullyprosecutetheresulting
war.TheUnitedStateswasineffectiveanddividedintheabsenceofdan-
ger,unitedandpotentinthefaceofit.
Theseare,tosomedegree,consolingreflections,butevenso,itseems
clearthatAmericanswouldhavebeenbetteroffiftheirforeignpolicy
processhadpreventedtheSecondWorldWar,ratherthanhelpingthem
winitandthenpickupthepieces.Furthermoretheworldofthetwenty-
firstcenturyis,potentially,muchmoredangerousthanthatoffiftyyears
ago.ItisunclearthattheUnitedStatescouldemergetodayasnearly
unscathedfroma great-powerwar.Itisthereforenota promisingsign
thatafter1989,asin1919,theAmericanforeignpolicydebateappears
tobesubsidingagainintoa standoff,whilepoliciesproliferateinthe
absenceofstrategy.
In 1941 andagainafterWorldWarII,itwasanexternalchallenge
thatinspiredAmericanstodevelopa consensusstrategy.Throughoutthe
ColdWar,theSovietUniongaveAmericanschoolsa focus.Nowcomesa
momentoftruth:CantheUnitedStatesdevelopa strategicconsensusfor
a globalroleintheabsenceofthekindofchallengeonceposed byGer-
many,Japan,andtheSovietUnion,orarewelikethegrandmotherin
FlanneryO'Connor'sshortstory"AGoodManIsHardtoFind,"unable
tobehavewellunlessfacedwitha life-and-deaththreat?
"Shewouldofbeena goodwoman,"herkiller,TheMisfit,remarked
intheend,"if[there}hadbeensomebodytheretoshoothereveryminute
ofherlife."r6