TheFutureof AmericanForeignPolicy 32 ITheChallengeTheUnitedStatesnowfacesatrulymomentousturningpointinits
history,andwemustdosomethingwehaveneverdonebefore:developa
coherent,politicallysustainablestrategyforAmericanworldleadership
inpeacetime.WhiletheUnitedStateshas beentheworld'sgreatest
powerforalmosta century,fromWorldWarI tothepresent,buildinga
peacetimeconsensusonwhatthatpoweris forandhowitshouldbeused
is somethingnew. From 19 I 9 to 194 I therewas no consensus;from
194 I to 1989 therewasnopeace;after 1989 ithasbeenclearonceagain
thatthereis noeffectiveconsensusintheAmericanpoliticalsystem.
Thereis,unfortunately,noautomaticforcethatwillcreatea newcon-
sensusondemand.Astheexperienceofthetwentiesandthirtiesshows,
politicaldeadlockoverforeignpolicycanbea verydurablearrangement.
OnecouldwellenvisiontheUnitedStatesmovingthrougha decadeor
morewithoutacoherentconsensus-longer,ifnoexternaleventsforced
thecountrytorespond.Thisisnotideal,eventhoughinsomewaysit
meetsthebasictestofdemocraticpolitics:Alltheinterestgroupsgeta
substantialshareofwhattheyvaluemost.
UntilthedaywhenAmericanbumblingandlackoffocuspermitsa
realthreat to arise,oruntil misguidedpolicyonce againlands the
UnitedStatesina Vietnam-stylequagmire,manygroupsintheUnited
Stateswouldbe largelysatisfiedbyforeignpolicygridlock.Ethniclob-
bieswouldreignhappilyoverthemattersthatmeanmosttoeachof
them.Economiclobbieswouldalsoprosper.Defensecompanieswould
helpshapearmsexportpolicies,withamplecreditsavailableforkey
clients. Military bases with powerful congressional patrons would
continuetoflourishregardlessofmilitaryneed;thePentagonwouldcon-
tinue to be forced by powerful political constituencies to procure
weaponsevenifthesepurchasescrowdedoutsomenecessaryanduseful
newsystems.Farmers,financiers,pharmaceuticalcompanies,andfilm-
makerswouldcontinuetoreceivestronggovernmentbackingininterna-
tionaltradenegotiations.Sugarproducerswouldhavethesatisfactionof
forcingAmericanconsumerstopaytwo,three,andfourtimestheworld
priceforsugarevenasthedevelopmentprospectsofneighboringcoun-
trieswerestuntedbylackofaccesstoU.S.markets.
Foreignpolicywouldprobablybepartitionedamong theschools.
HamiltonianswouldgravitatetoTreasury,theFed,andtheOfficeofthe
UnitedStatesTradeRepresentative.Wilsoniansinsuchsanctuariesas