Special Providence_ American Foreign Policy and How It Changed World - Walter Russell Mead

48 SPECIALPROVIDENCE

vindictiveandwarlikein 1919 whencoolerheadssupportedamoderate
peace;allthedemocracieswerepacifisticfifteenyearslater,whenfirm-
ness wouldhavebeenusefulagainstHitler.In 1938 popularopinion
everywhere,andespeciallyintheUnitedStates,couldnotbebotheredto
notetherealthreattopeaceposedbyHitler'sGermany.In 1950 the
Americanpeoplecould be stampededinto hysteria overthe largely
imaginarymenaceofStalin'sshort-termplansforworldconquest.
Itis notjustthatdern:ocraciesareexcitableandfickle.Democratic
theoryholdsthatthepeoplearecapableofgivingwisejudgmentsabout
domestic politicsbecauseeachpersonismostcapableofdetermining
whichcandidateormeasure bestserveshisorherinterests.Butitis
muchlessclearthatcitizensareinformedaboutthevitalissuesinforeign
policy. Kissinger's statistic aboutcontrasin Norwaydoes notstand
alone.Articlesandsurveysregularlyappearwithdismalstatistics,like
theColdWarpollthatindicatedthat 50 percentofAmericanscouldn't
findBritain,France,orJapanona map.28
Eventhewarmestadvocatesofdemocracyhesitatetosuggestthatthe
massoftheAmericanpeoplearewellreadinworldhistory, thatthey
understandtheroleofinternationalinstitutions,orthattheygraspthe
historyandpurposesofAmericandiplomacy,letalonethoseofother
nations.Itisimprobablethattheelectoratehasanyconsciousclearsense
oflong-termnationalpolicyorinterests,anditclearlydoesnotdemand
thoughtfuldebateonforeignaffairsfromitspoliticalrepresentatives.
Theignorancethat hamperstheformationofenlightenedpublic
opiniononforeignpolicyquestionsisnotsimplyamatteroffactualand
historicalignorance.Thereis a moralgapaswellbetweentheexperience
ofthecitizensofa democracyandtheconditionsoftheirstate.Inthelan-
guageofclassicpoliticaltheory,thecitizensofa democraticstatelivein
anenvironmentshapedbya reasonablybeneficentLockeansocialcon-
tract.Economic lifemaybecompetitive,butindividualcitizensina
healthydemocracyliveina societyimbuedwitha healthysocialand
moralconsensus.Mostofthepeopleobeymostofthelawsmostofthe
time.Mostofthelawsareagreeabletomostofthefeelingsofmostof
thepeople;thelawsofadem~cracymustreflectinsomeway,however
imperfectly,themoralsenseofthenationalcommunity.
Sovereignstatesdonot-atleastnotyetandperhapsnotever-live
ina Lockeanworld.ThestateisinaHobbesianstateofnature,anduntil
andunlesstheworld'squarrelingnation-statesforma realsocialcompact
andequipaninternationalagentwiththemeanstoenforceitstermson
the recalcitrant,internationalrelationswillinhabita differentmoral