◼ BUSINESS April 20, 202017deadlydisease.With96%ofitsplanesgrounded,
theaviationempireFernandesbuiltishemor-
rhagingcash. AirAsia’swoes—especiallyatits
loss-ridden AirAsia X arm, which flies longer
routes—are also casting a shadow over European
plane maker Airbus SE. AirAsia X has about
$23 billion in orders for the planemaker’s new,
fuel-saving A330neo widebody jet, making it the
aircraft’s largest customer. “AirAsia brought a
major change in the aviation industry in Asia,”
says Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultant
Endau Analysis in Malaysia. That’s under review,
he says, “because the way people fly will change
after the virus is contained. The days of crazy,
expensive expansions are over.”
For airlines worldwide, which IATA expects to
lose $314 billion in passenger revenue this year, the
immediate priority is money. Budget carriers typi-
cally take on mountains of debt to buy planes before
they even begin flying. With those aircraft idled, and
thousands of customers seeking refunds for can-
celed flights, raising capital has become key. AirAsia
may be burning about 527 million ringgit ($122 mil-
lion) in cash per month in fixed operating costs,
financing costs, and fuel hedging losses, according
to Raymond Yap, an analyst at CIMB Group Holdings
Bhd. He estimates the carrier has enough cash to pay
its fixed costs for less than five months. “Although
AirAsia is not government owned,” he wrote in an
April 6 report, “we believe that the Malaysian gov-
ernment will not allow AirAsia to fail, as it will hurt
Malaysia’s economy.”
In an April 2 interview on Bloomberg Television,
Fernandes said AirAsia was working with the gov-
ernment to obtain a loan but has enough cash to
last most of this year. He also said the company
hopes to restart ticket sales in mid-April. To raise
cash, AirAsia ran a promotion in February offer-
ing Malaysia-based customers unlimited flights to
all AirAsia X destinations in Australia, China, India,
Japan, and South Korea for a year for 499 ringgit.
Rivals are also seeking funds to weather the
storm. Singapore Airlines Ltd., whose budget unit
Scoot competes directly with AirAsia, last month
said it would raise about S$8.8 billion ($6.2 billion) by
selling new shares and convertible bonds. And South
Korea is considering an emergency loan program
worth 300 billion won ($246 million) and deferrals of
airport fees for its virus-slammed discount carriers.
Shukor warns that the recovery will be slow
and that companies with access to funds have the
best chance of survival. Prominent victims of any
industry shakeout could be long-haul low-cost car-
riers such as AirAsia X. Low-cost carriers depend on
higher asset utilization to differentiate them from▼ Airbus A330neo
order book as of
March AirAsiaX 78DeltaAirLines 35IranAir 28Other
178THEBOTTOMLINE Thecoronavirushasgrounded96%of
AirAsia’s planes. That could also be bad news for Airbus, which has
orders for more than 460 jets from the discount carrier.competitors, says Rob Morris, the global head of
consulting at Cirium’s Ascend aviation unit. That’s
easier to do on short hops by simply increasing the
number of flights a plane operates in a single day,
but it’s harder for long-distance runs that last many
more hours. “I don’t think that is feasible for long-
haul,” he says. “Utilization is the same [as on full-fare
carriers], and there is no cost advantage.”
AirAsia is weighing options for its long-haul
unit, including attracting an investor to shore up
its finances, people familiar with the matter said
last month. Other possibilities include seeking
support from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund,
integrating AirAsia X into the parent group, or
shuttingthedivisionaltogether.Thatwouldbea
majorblowforAirbusandtheA330neo,a more
fuel-efficient variant of its popular long-haul wide-
body, designed to compete with the Boeing 787.
AirAsia has more than 460 of the European man-
ufacturer’s planes on order.
Fernandes told Bloomberg Television that
Airbusremains“verymuchourpartner.”Still,
thecoronavirus-induced implosionin traffic—
especially on long-haul routes where the competi-
tion was already tough—has made the neo deal look
increasingly unrealistic. AirAsia X announced in late
February it will defer deliveries for 78 A330neos,
without saying how long the delay would last.
“It’s hard to be talking about new aircraft right
now when demand is what it is,” Fernandes said
this month, noting that he doesn’t plan to switch
to another aircraft. “I don’t think growth will come
back for a while, so I don’t see many airlines tak-
ing new planes.” �Kyunghee Park, with Siddharth
Philip, Will Davies, Yvonne Man, and Haslinda AminPLANE: FABRIZIO GANDOLFO/GETTY IMAGES. FERNANDES: SANJIT DAS/BLOOMBERG. DATA: DEPARTMENT FOR DIGITAL, CULTURE, MEDIA AND SPORT; AIRBUS
◀ AirAsia
CEO Fernandes