◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek April 20, 202034
LEFT FROM TOP: JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES; KEVIN HAGEN/AP PHOTO. RIGHT: PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY 731; PHOTOS: ALAMY, GETTY IMAGESresultofcheapgas,theemergenceofride-hailing,
and decaying infrastructure.
Now experts predict that U.S. rail and bus sys-
tems may never fully recover from the pandemic.
That could present new obstacles to millions of
low-income commuters and set cities on a course
toward heavier congestion and failed climate goals.
“It brings fear to my heart thinking about the sus-
tainability of these systems,” says Kari Watkins, a
professor of civil and environmental engineering at
the Georgia Institute of Technology.
As shelter-in-place orders and business closures
have kept millions of workers at home, the most-
used transit systems are carrying 70% fewer rid-
ers than usual, according to the American Public
Transportation Association. Those riders left include
workersinessentialindustries—nurses,janitors,gro-
ceryandpharmacyclerks,andothersthatstateand
localgovernmentsdeempandemic-critical. About
2.8 million of these use public transit, making up
36% of all riders, according to an analysis of 2018 U.S.
Census Bureau data by TransitCenter, a think tank.
Along with revenue from fares, sales tax receipts—
another key funding source—are expected to dry up
with the economic shutdown. Paul Skoutelas, pres-
ident and chief executive officer of APTA, calls this
a “double whammy.” Combined with the loss of ad
revenue, parking fees, and other forms of income,
the financial impact is profound.
The SFMTA is staring down a $200 million quar-
terlyloss.NewYork’sMetropolitanTransportation
Authorityestimates a weekly revenue lossof
$142millionduringthecity’slockdown.(“The
declineinridershipinthepandemictimeis some-
thingthat’sdesirable,althoughit’shada dramatic
impactonourrevenue,”saysPatFoye,theMTA’s
chairmanandCEO.)Washington,D.C.’sMetrois los-
ing$2.5millioneachweekday.
Thethirdfederalreliefpackagewillsend$25bil-
lioninaidtotransitagencies.Thosefundswillhelp
covernear-termlosses,butsystemswillneedmore
helpfromWashingtonif thepandemiccontinues,
Skoutelassays.
Mostsystemshaveslashedoperations.Seattlehas
cut 103 busroutesandis runningfewertrains;Miami
hascanceledexpressbusesandis preparingtoout-
sourceovernightservicetoUberTechnologiesInc.
andLyftInc.Evenwitha fractionoftheirtypical
ridership,agenciesareinvestingtimeandmoney
inextrasafetymeasuressuchasdeepcleaning.At
thesametime,laborshortagespresenta significant
challenge.Thehealthoftransitoperators is under
siege: In New York City, 2,269 MTA workers have
tested positive for the coronavirus and 59 have died
as of April 14.Thecrisisislikelytohavelong-termeffects.
Whenworkersheadbacktotheoffice,somemay
determine it’s less risky to drive, bike, or walk than
to pack inside a bus or train. “These riders will
be very slow to return—and may never return,”
says Candace Brakewood, a professor of civil and
environmental engineering at the University of
Tennessee at Knoxville. “Those who will return are
the dependent riders, without a car and without the
means to purchase a car.” They may find systems
gutted by funding cuts, with fewer routes, reduced
frequency, and less coverage.
Experts say transit systems would be more resil-
ient to shocks if they could depend on regular infu-
sions of federal funding, rather than revenue sources
tied to the ups and downs of the economy. In the
U.S., emissions from cars and trucks are the leading
source of planet-warming greenhouse gases. Giving
up on transit during one crisis would only com-
poundanother.�LauraBlissandMichelleKaskeTHE BOTTOM LINE The coronavirus has forced service cuts by
subway and bus operators as their ridership and revenue plummet.
Riders with other options might not come back.◀ San Francisco
Muni buses idled
during the pandemic
▼ An MTA worker in
New York sanitizing
a subway car