CONTAGIONand large public gatherings during
the Lunar New Year holiday, the
virus quickly moved through China,
where many automotive parts are
manufactured. The Chinese gov-
ernment’s attempts to limit the
spread of the virus included manda-
tory quarantines and factory shut-
downs, which led to parts shortages
for factories elsewhere in the world.
According to Mike Vousden, an
automotive analyst at GlobalData:
“The auto industry is poorly pre-
pared for such supply-chain shocks
because many operations run on a
just-in-time basis, with very limited
numbers of stockpiled parts.” Man-
ufacturers including Ford, General
Motors, Honda, Hyundai-Kia, Jag-
uar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz,
Nissan, Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswa-
gen have seen production disrupted
S_QNfNaNaVZR79?UNQa\½fbVa-
cases full of key fobs from China
to its U.K. plants when a shortage
meant there wasn’t time to wait for
the parts to arrive via more con-
ventional shipping routes. Guenter
Butschek, CEO of Tata Motors,
JLR’s parent company, said in Feb-
ruary that the company didn’t have
enough parts to last through March.
Those shortages may matter less
if customers stop going to dealer-
ships, though. Year-over-year auto
sales in China dropped 80 percent
in February as China put its citizens
Prior to the COVID- 19 pandemic,
analysts predicted a drop of less than
1 percent for 202 0 global auto sales. But
now they are revising those numbers. In
March, projections suggested a global
decline of 2 .5 to 3.5 percent. Moody’s,
N ¼[N[PVNY `R_cVPR` N[Q P_RQVa_NaV[T
agency, says its forecast for a 2 .5 per-
cent decline depends on the return of
normal economic activity in the second
quarter. Combined with slow sales in
201 9, this could resemble the market’s
P\[a_NPaV\[ Qb_V[TaUR % ¼[N[PVNY
crisis, which led GM and Chrysler to
bankruptcy, cost thousands of auto-
motive-industry jobs, and upended the
development plans for vehicles such as
the mid-engine Corvette.
The novel coronavirus has already
thwarted vehicle launches, starting
with the cancellation of the Geneva
auto show. Automakers including Audi,
BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche
streamed new-model debuts online
instead. Some manufacturers canceled
their debuts altogether. On March 10 ,
N`aUR[bZOR_\SP\[¼_ZRQ0<C 61
19 cases in New York State advanced
toward 200 , organizers announced
that the New York auto show would be
postponed until late August. And it’s
not just public-facing events that have
ORR[NßRPaRQ'3\_Q3VNa0U_f`YR_N[Q
Toyota issued international and domes-
tic travel restrictions for employees due
to concerns about the pandemic.
While some factories in China and
elsewhere have resumed production,
the crisis appears certain to continue
until researchers can develop a vaccine.
When one employee at FCA’s Kokomo,
Indiana, transmission plant tested
positive for COVID- 1 9, the company
kept the line running at normal output.
But as U. S. schools closed, businesses
sent their employees home, and major
sporting events were canceled, notions
of what was normal disappeared. The
¼[N[PVNY ZN_XRa` _R`]\[QRQa\aUR
uncertainty accordingly. Automakers’
stocks were hit harder than average
Qb_V[T aUR ZVQ:N_PU `RYY\ß H`RR
“Taking Stock of Things”], a sign of a
bumpy road ahead. —Colin Beresford and
Joey CapparellaICONIZATION
—
When Chinese automaker
Geely launched its Icon SUV
this February, it confronted
the COVID-19 issue head-on
with a newly developed
air-purification system that
meets the N95 standard. You
may recognize that designa-
tion from the masks you’re
not supposed to be hoarding.
It means the system filters
at least 95 percent of 0.3-
micron particles in lab
testing. Never mind that you
still have to open the Icon’s
doors to get in and out.-30.-17.
-23.-22.-10.0CHANGE,^ %TIME10- DEC 9, 2019 MAR 10, 2020
Ford Motor Company
General Motors
Hyundai Motor Company
Toyota Motor Corporation
Volkswagen AGTAKING STOCK OF THINGS
on lockdown, and while we haven’t
fRa `RR[ NaN[TVOYR RßRPa\[B@
sales, our market could eventually
`RR N `VT[V¼PN[aQRPYV[Ra\\ AUR
Center for Automotive Research
had projected that automakers
would sell 16.6 million new vehicles
in the U. S. in 202 0 but now says that
number could go as low as 16 million
if there is a mass outbreak here.14 MAY 2020 ~ CAR AND DRIVER