Los Angeles Times - 04.03.2020

LATIMES.COM S WEDNESDAY, MARCH 4, 2020A

ELECTION 2020

crat against an independent
progressive who wants to
upend the party.
The results dealt a poten-
tially fatal blow to the cam-
paign of former New York
Mayor Michael R. Bloom-
berg, who will be under pres-
sure to abandon his cam-
paign after spending more
than $660 million to garner
just a handful of delegates.
In North Carolina, for ex-
ample, the billionaire candi-
date invested heavily. Biden
crushed him, cruising to an
easy victory and relegating
Bloomberg to a distant
third.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of
Massachusetts lost her
home state to Biden. Al-
though she has vowed to
continue her campaign, her
future seems limited.
The primaries over the
remainder of this month —
especially in big, delegate-
rich states including Michi-
gan, which votes next week,
and Ohio, Illinois, Georgia
and Florida — will test the
ability of both leading candi-
dates to reach beyond their
comfort zones.
So far, each has drawn
strength from different
swaths of the electorate.
Biden’s coalition of
blacks, older voters and sub-
urban moderates helped
him trounce Sanders across
the South.
Sanders’ coalition of
young people, Latinos and
urban voters boosted him in
the West. He won Colorado
and Utah and is projected to
win California, where the
vote count will continue late
into the month as officials
sort through millions of late-
arriving mail-in and provi-
sional ballots.
Texas, where the two
candidates’ coalitions are
both well represented,
proved to be a close
battleground: The two

seemed poised to split the

prize in that state, which has

the second-largest dele-

gation to the party’s nomi-

nating convention.

Biden’s performance on

Super Tuesday was a re-

markable demonstration of

how his breakthrough in

South Carolina and the en-

dorsements that followed

could compensate for glar-

ing weaknesses that con-

tributed to poor showings in

the first three states to vote.

He had a thinly staffed or-

ganization throughout Su-

per Tuesday states, anemic

fundraising and little adver-

tising, leading many ana-

lysts to question whether he

would have the resources to

capitalize on his South Car-

olina win.

In the end, none of that

mattered. Even without tra-

ditional campaign infra-

structure, Biden’s abrupt

change of fortune after

South Carolina had a big

impact on a Democratic

electorate that included

many late deciders — voters

who opposed Sanders’ poli-

cies or doubted he could

beat President Trump, but

who had a hard time decid-

ing on the best alternative.

In Virginia, for example,

preliminary exit polls found

that about half of voters

chose their candidate in the

last few days — a share that

was considerably larger

than typical. Half of these

voters chose Biden.

Similarly, in Massachu-

setts, half of the voters de-

cided in the last few days.

Among them, Biden was

supported by more than 4 in

10 — more than any other

candidate, according to the

exit poll done for the major

television networks by Edi-

son Research.

One of the day’s late de-

ciders was Yolanda Lamp-

kin, a 62-year-old travel

agent in Alabama who was

still trying to pick a candi-

date when she parked at her

polling station.

She’d been considering

voting for Warren or Sand-

ers, she said, but had just

heard a radio ad in which Al-

abama Sen. Doug Jones

urged support for Biden as

the best candidate to beat

Trump.

“OK,” she told herself.

“I’m going to go with Biden.”

One of the clearest exam-

ples of how late-deciding

voters could swing an elec-

tion came in Virginia. The

state allows only very limited

early voting, so Biden har-

vested the full impact of his

South Carolina victory and

the late endorsements of

two of the state’s most popu-

lar Democrats, Sen. Tim

Kaine and former Gov. Terry

McAuliffe.

Warren and Bloomberg

also made strong plays

for well-educated suburban

voters in the state, and as re-

cently as last week polls

found both of them poten-

tially competitive. But Bid-

en swept Virginia, taking

53% of the vote in nearly

complete returns, to 23% for

Sanders. Bloomberg and

Warren both ended up well

below the 15% threshold for

winning statewide delegates

there.

Biden was helped by vot-

ers like Dwight Robinson, a

66-year-old retiree from

Herndon. He almost voted

for Sanders but worried the

Vermont senator wouldn’t

be able to beat Trump. In-

stead, he cast his ballot for

Biden, although he told a re-

porter that Biden needed to

“get the fire in his belly” to

win the general election.

The Super Tuesday re-

turns put to rest questions

about whether Biden’s big

win in South Carolina — and

his landslide among black

voters — was a one-shot tri-

umph thanks to his endorse-

ment by the influential

South Carolina party leader

Rep. James E. Clyburn, the

influential South Carolina

party leader.

Across the South, exit

polls found that about two-

thirds of African American

voters in Super Tuesday

states supported Biden,

compared with about one-

sixth who backed Sanders.

Exit polls also pointed to

the ideological division with-

in the party that will define

the coming debate between

Biden and Sanders: Just

over 4 in 10 voters said they

wanted the next president to

return to the policies of the

Obama era — a legacy that is

embraced by Biden; just

under 4 in 10 wanted more li-

beral policies, as Sanders

has advocated; 1 in 10 wanted

more conservative policies.

While Sanders has strug-

gled to gain traction among

black voters, Latinos have

become an important part

of his coalition, which is a big

part of why he had been ex-

pected to do well in Califor-

nia, Colorado and Texas.

Sanders won Colorado,

but three other candidates

— Biden, Warren and

Bloomberg — were also on

track to claim a share of the

state’s delegates.

In Texas, Biden drew

support from moderates like

Antonio Brinkley, 57, an ad-

ministrator who works with

at-risk youth, who doesn’t

like big government and op-

posed Sanders.

“He can bring in moder-

ates” and beat Trump,

Brinkley said of Biden.

Sanders tapped into

young voters like Erek John,

a University of Houston stu-

dent who thinks the prog-

ressive senator can drive

turnout among young and

minority voters.

“He has a way of galvaniz-

ing his base the way Trump

does that Biden just

doesn’t,” said John, 21.

Some analysts argue that

Sanders’ strong progressive

agenda could create a ceiling

on the support he can gar-

ner, while Biden may have

more room to grow among

independent and Republi-

can voters.

But as the exit polls on

Tuesday showed, both Bid-

en and Sanders have com-

plementary weak spots: Bid-

en excels among older vot-

ers, but flags among the

young; Sanders has strong

support among young vot-

ers, not so much among old-

er ones. And both will have

work to do to connect with

college-educated white wo-

men — a swath of voters that

may be up for grabs if War-

ren drops out of the race.

The coming contests will

be a test of whether either of

them can address their weak

spots and reach beyond

their bases to close the deal

on the nomination — and to

unite their party for the com-

ing battle against Trump.

Times staff writers Molly

Hennessey-Fiske in

Houston, Jenny Jarvie in

Birmingham, Ala., and Erin

Logan in Herndon, Va.,

contributed to this report.

Can Biden and Sanders expand coalitions?

[Analysis,from A1]

VOTERSserenaded by a mariachi band march to cast their ballots in Whittier.

Latinos, young people and urbanites gave Bernie Sanders a big boost in the West.

Kent NishimuraLos Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — Got
whiplash yet? This race
looks nothing like it did a
week ago.
It is no longer Bernie
Sanders versus a muddled
mess of candidates in the
moderate middle. Joe Biden
emerged from Super Tues-
day as the clear counter-
weight to Sanders. And he
emerged strong.
Biden’s last-minute
surge dashed any hopes
Sanders held of gaining an
insurmountable lead toward
the nomination. Indeed, the
former vice president ap-
peared likely to clear more
delegates than Sanders
from Super Tuesday, the
longest of long shots a few
days ago.
Biden quickly notched
decisive victories across the
South: Alabama, Arkansas,
North Carolina, Tennessee
and Virginia. Then he took
Minnesota and Massachu-
setts, Sanders’ strongholds
where Biden hadn’t even
campaigned.
The Sanders victory in
California was undercut by
Biden’s sweep of so many
other states.
Biden was even edging
out Sanders in delegate-rich
Texas, the second-biggest
prize, arguably the biggest
surprise of the night.
So what are the top take-
aways from the 14 contests
on Super Tuesday, the big-
gest day on the Democrats’
primary calendar?

The establishment
strikes back
Biden looked like a goner
for much of February. He
got creamed in Iowa, was
creamed again in New
Hampshire, and hobbled
out of Nevada a distant
second. His vast lead in the
polls at the start of the race
evaporated. He looked tired
at events, overwhelmed on
the debate stage, and me-
andering in the field.
Then came his sweeping
victory Saturday in South
Carolina. And on Tuesday
he plowed through the
South thanks to over-
whelming support from
African American voters
and a big shift his way in
suburban voters who de-
cided at the last moment.
He won states where he was
barely on the radar last
week.

What happened? The

establishment fell into line.

Big donors grabbed their

checkbooks. Democratic

heavyweights like former

Virginia Gov. Terry McAu-

liffe and former Senate

Majority Leader Harry Reid

got off the sidelines and

endorsed. Voters who had

considered billionaire

Michael R. Bloomberg

moved to Biden en mass

instead.

But the race still has a

long way to go.

Will donors dig deep

enough to help Biden com-

pete with Sanders’ huge war

chest? Will the organiza-

tional chaos in the Biden

campaign ease now that the

establishment cavalry is

invested in boosting him

toward the nomination?

Will Biden finally stick to a

coherent message on the

campaign trail and stop

wandering into gaffes and

goofy non sequiturs?

Bernie Sanders

is hitting bumps

Sanders appeared on a

roll when the opposition

was splintered and aimless.

Now he faces a real fight.

And the bruises started to

show Tuesday.

Sanders won the big

prize of California, as well as

Colorado, Utah and his

home state of Vermont. But

he didn’t get the landslides

polling had suggested even

a few days ago. His drubbing

in the South showed he has

not overcome the weakness

he faced in 2016, when he

also struggled to appeal to

African Americans.

The Vermonter also

proved unexpectedly weak

in his own backyard, losing

Massachusetts and possibly

Maine to Biden, who had

invested almost no re-

sources in the region.

Yet with small donors

pouring millions of dollars

into the Sanders campaign,

the self-declared demo-

cratic socialist has built a

formidable machine. It is

still positioned to barrel

over any number of obsta-

cles — possibly including

the Democratic Party es-

tablishment.

Michael Bloomberg

didn’t get it done

Former New York Mayor

Michael R. Bloomberg

spent more than half a

billion dollars and won ...

American Samoa.

The poor billionaires.

They have been beat up and

battered throughout this

contest. Usually by the left.

But Bloomberg is finding

the mainstream isn’t

thrilled to have him around

either.

Bloomberg went from

establishment savior to

spoiler and now punch line.

His entire case for running

was built around Biden’s

weakness, not his stunning

comeback. Bloomberg

spent with abandon to

make the case that he was

the only moderate who

could best Sanders for the

nomination. Voters roundly

rejected him Tuesday.

Bloomberg’s case col-

lapsed once America saw

the candidate and not just

his ubiquitous ads. He face-

planted in his first debate.

He was less a disaster in the

second debate, but he did

little to reassure voters who

chiefly want someone who

can trounce Trump. Now,

voters have delivered their

verdict and Bloomberg is

under pressure to get out of

the way and clear a path for

Biden.

Both men are in their

late 70s, have made voters

cringe while onstage, and

often seem out of step with

this generation’s electorate.

But Biden, who spent next

to nothing, will emerge from

Super Tuesday with a siz-

able bounty of delegates.

Bloomberg, who spent more

than any candidate in his-

tory, won but a smattering.

A month ago, with cen-

trists splintering the vote

and no clear challenge to

Sanders, the billionaire’s

timing looked impeccable.

Now he looks more like a

nuisance.

Elizabeth Warren

isn’t giving up — yet

The race looks increas-

ingly hopeless for Sen. Eliza-

beth Warren. The left has

largely coalesced around

Sanders. She has yet to win

a state. Her third-place

finish in Massachusetts was

humiliating. She has no

clear path to the nomina-

tion.

Will she push on?

As long as a contested

convention remains pos-

sible, the Warren campaign

insists she has a place in it.

So have some very wealthy

backers, who have pumped

millions into a super PAC

aimed at keeping her a

visible presence — notwith-

standing her earlier pledge

to disavow such outside

money during the primary.

Warren supporters argue

she still can rack up enough

delegates to play an influen-

tial role at the Democrats’

convention in Milwaukee —

or even emerge as a compro-

mise candidate.

Beyond that, they just

like having her voice in the

race.

She is a fierce presence

on the debate stage. War-

ren’s broadsides arguably

sank Bloomberg in the

debates. She is an effective

champion for equal rights,

and makes a persuasive

case for big economic

change and expansive social

programs to audiences that

Sanders is not reaching.

But Super Tuesday was

brutal for Warren and may

have her looking toward the

exit.

This campaign

will get uglier

A lot happened on Super

Tuesday. But one thing that

did not happen was any

movement toward reconcili-

ation between the warring

wings of the party.

The ideological battle

lines have only hardened.

Sanders ticked off his litany

of grievances with Biden in

an angry, finger-wagging

election-night speech. Bid-

en has been unrestrained in

ripping into the democratic

socialist agenda that Sand-

ers is promoting.

Now that the nomination

battle has narrowed to these

two, all signs suggest it will

get more personal and more

pointed.

Will they come together

once a nominee is chosen?

Perhaps. But the party risks

lasting damage when

Democrats are desperate

for unity against Trump.

Five takeaways from a dramatic day

By Evan Halper

JOE BIDENgreets supporters at the Baldwin Hills Recreation Center in Los Angeles. The former vice presi-

dent’s surge on Super Tuesday dashed any hopes Bernie Sanders held of gaining an insurmountable lead.

Robert GauthierLos Angeles Times