New Zealand Listener 03.14.2020

20 LISTENER MARCH 14 2020

COVID

A

t the height of the

1918 influenza

epidemic that was

killing New Zealand-

ers, the Talune sailed

into Samoa’s capital, Apia, from

Auckland carrying cargo and

passengers – and the Spanish

flu virus.

The Talune had been quar-

antined in Fiji, but Samoa was

under New Zealand administra-

tion at the time, and the New

Zealand administrator, Lieu-

tenant-Colonel Robert Logan,

allowed the ship to dock.

Passengers known to be sick

with the flu, which was at the

time ravaging New Zealand, dis-

embarked. As in New Zealand,

the virus spread quickly, killing

about 8500 people – about

a quarter of Samoa’s small

population at the time.

According to the New

Zealand Government’s his-

tory website, a 1947 United Nations report

described the Samoan episode as “one of

the most disastrous epidemics recorded

anywhere in the world during the present

century, so far as the proportion of deaths

to the population is concerned”.

“Samoa, I think, has never really for-

given New Zealand for that,” University

of Auckland professor of history Linda

Bryder says. “It did contribute to the

resistance movement against New Zealand

administration in Samoa.” Samoa gained

independence from New Zealand on Janu-

ary 1, 1962.

Last year, Samoa was badly hit by a

measles epidemic, which claimed 83 lives,

Twice bitten ...

Samoa’s tragic history explains

its recent travel restrictions.

mostly children.

This month, in the wake of the first

Covid-19 case being confirmed in

Auckland, the Samoan Government

announced new restrictions on people

arriving in Samoa. The total number of

weekly commercial flights has been cut,

and passengers are required to show a

medical certificate issued within three

days prior to their arrival in the capital,

Apia.

“Due to New Zealand’s close prox-

imity to Samoa and its confirmation

of its Covid-19 case in Auckland, the

increased risk of Covid-19 entering

Samoa has elevated from high to very

high and its impact on Samoa’s popula-

tion remains [potentially] catastrophic,”

a travel advisory issued by the Samoan

Government and effective from March

2, states. The medical clearance must be

shown before boarding passes are issued

in countries, including New Zealand,

where flights to Apia originate.

“Drought and coronavirus are going to

deal the New Zealand economy a sharp blow

over the first half of 2020,” Westpac econo-

mists warned in their weekly update at the

beginning of March.

“There is now a greater probability of sup-

ply-chain disruptions causing New Zealand

firms to run out of the materials they need

to operate,” Westpac noted, adding that its

updated forecasts incorporated assumptions

of more travel bans and disruption to eco-

nomic activity. “We are still assuming that

efforts to contain the virus will eventually

be successful, but only at a severe economic

cost.”

All the major banks match Westpac’s

concern. “The outbreak of the Covid-

coronavirus [disease] has turned what was

looking to be a strong economic outlook

for 2020 on its head,” reports ASB Bank

senior economist Mark Smith. “The situa-

tion remains volatile and it is difficult to see

how things will pan out.

“We tend to be overly cautious around

new and misunderstood risks, which is what

this virus is,” Smith says. “Panic does no one

any good. However, the situation is evolving

quickly. It is prudent for firms, households

and policymakers to be prepared. This

means having a plan B or even a plan C

ready if need be.”

POTENTIAL JOB LOSSES

One of the first to warn of possible job

losses was Victoria University, where travel

restrictions have prevented about 500 stu-

dents from China enrolling, angering the

vice-chancellor who says the New Zealand

Government has overreacted. The university

has put in place a hiring freeze and says lay-

offs are possible.

A director of New Zealand investment

and advisory group Jarden, John Norling,

says “second round effects” of the Chinese

shutdowns are what’s worrying for New Zea-

landers, aside from the virus itself.

“The risk is that people get laid off, those

companies can’t pay their bills and the

“It is prudent for

firms, households and

policymakers to be

prepared. This means

having a plan B or even a

plan C ready if need be.”

“Samoa, I think, has

never really forgiven

New Zealand for that. ”

Lieutenant-Colonel

Robert Logan allowed

passengers with the

flu to disembark.

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