Barron\'s - 09.03.2020

M38 BARRON’S March9,2020

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 1.75 2.25 3.00

PrimeRate(base) 4.25 4.75 5.50

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 1.08 1.59 2.42

Avg weekly auction-c 1.58 1.59 2.40

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.174 1.536 2.465

13 weeks, Auction Rate 1.155 1.505 2.410

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.029 1.475 2.532

26 weeks, Auction Rate 1.010 1.440 2.460
Avg weekly auction-c 1.43 1.55 2.40

BrokerCallRate 3.00 3.50 4.25

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.95 1.60 2.48

2 months 0.90 1.60 2.53

3 months 0.90 1.60 2.63

6 months 0.88 1.58 2.73

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.573 -0.534 -0.414

3 months -0.518 -0.471 -0.330

6 months -0.470 -0.432 -0.294

12 months -0.402 -0.354 -0.175

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.86 1.52 2.49

3 months 0.90 1.46 2.60

6 months 0.88 1.40 2.68

12 months 0.85 1.38 2.86

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 2.40 2.73 3.95

Bank money market-z 0.21 0.21 0.23

Interest Checking-z 0.07 0.07 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.48 0.49 0.58

12-Month Certif-z 0.75 0.76 0.98
30 Month Accounts-z 0.78 0.79 1.18

5-Year Certificates-z 1.10 1.13 1.51

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

0.95

0.85

0.75

0.65

0.55

0.45

4.95

4.10

3.25

2.40

1.55

0.70

S&P 100 CBOE

M A M J J A S O N D J F

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

CBOEs s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedMar4:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,865,007 + 18,441 + 79,591

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 11 + 9 + 5

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... -6

Float -491 -308 -158

OtherF.R.Assets 19,512 + 310 -849

TotalFedCredit# 4,144,341 + 24,850 + 215,099

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,197 + 14 + 367

Total 4,231,434 + 25,343 + 215,401

Currencyincirc 1,803,521 + 4,579 + 88,749

Treas.CashHldgs 289 + 17 -26

Treas.FedDeposits 374,515 -64,850 + 154,470

ForeignFedDeposits 5,187 .... -57

OtherFedDeposits 76,424 + 6,811 + 16,890

OtherFRliab/cap 44,409 -87 + 1

Totalfactors 2,532,579 -47,043 + 238,161

ReservesF.R.banks 1,698,855 + 72,386 -22,759

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,457,675 -2,650 -8,278

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Feb26: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,709,136 1,732,355 -1.34 1,704,312

Nonborrowed Res # 1,709,134 1,732,352 -1.34 1,704,291

Required Res ## 211,982 203,070 4.39 199,771

ExcessReserves: 1,497,154 1,529,285 -2.10 1,504,541

Borrowed Reserves 2 3 -33.33 21

Free Reserves ### 1,497,152 1,529,282 -2.10 1,504,520

MonetaryBase 3,438,834 3,453,798 -0.43 3,347,519

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

Singapore(Dollar) .7256 .7178 1.3782 1.3931

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0638 .0638 15.6748 15.6688

SouthKorea(Won) .0008412 .0008331 1188.80 1200.32

SriLanka(Rupee) .0055 .0055 182.0000 181.8700

Sweden(Krona) .1064 .1042 9.3966 9.5999

Switzerland(Franc) 1.0675 1.0364 .9368 .9649

Taiwan(Dollar) .03343 .03318 29.915 30.137

Thailand(Baht) .03182 .03175 31.430 31.500

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1641 .1601 6.0954 6.2463

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0400 .0406 24.9864 24.6011

U.K.(Pound) 1.3047 1.2816 .7665 .7803

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02535 .02591 39.450 38.600

Venezuela(Bolivar)

----

Euro 1.1286 1.1027 .8861 .9069

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,March6,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullet. Retail transactions provide fewer

units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0160 .0161 62.4412 62.1300

Australia(Dollar) .6638 .6506 1.5065 1.5370

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6551 2.6524 .3766 .3770

Brazil(Real) .2161 .2236 4.6273 4.4726

Bulgaria(Lev) .5775 .5641 1.7317 1.7727

Canada(Dollar) .7456 .7478 1.3413 1.3373

Chile(Peso) .001210 .001223 826.60 817.90

China(Renminbi) .1443 .1430 6.9320 6.9919

Colombia(Peso) .0002786 .0002857 3588.83 3500.31

Croatia(Kuna) .1502359 .1475862 6.66 6.78

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04446 .04333 22.494 23.080

Denmark(Krone) .1511 .1476 6.6191 6.7764

Ecuador(US Dollar) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0639 .0640 15.6400 15.6286

HongKong(Dollar) .1287 .1283 7.7709 7.7940

Hungary(Forint) .003367 .003260 297.00 306.76

Iceland(Krona) .007884 .007893 126.84 126.69

India(Rupee) .01351 .01379 74.005 72.539

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000703 .0000697 14230 14348

Israel(Shekel) .2869 .2864 3.4858 3.4920

Japan(Yen) .009497 .009252 105.29 108.09

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002608 .002619 383.41 381.84

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2731 3.2690 .3055 .3059

Macau(Pataca) .1248 .1246 8.0097 8.0243

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2397 .2373 4.1720 4.2135

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0497 .0510 20.1091 19.6130

NewZealand(Dollar) .6346 .6242 1.5758 1.6021

Norway(Krone) .1080 .1064 9.2570 9.3962

Oman(Rial) 2.5984 2.5984 .3849 .3849

Pakistan(Rupee) .00648 .00648 154.405 154.300

Peru(new Sol)

Philippines(Peso) .01977 .01957 50.570 51.100

Poland(Zloty) .2626 .2547 3.8081 3.9262

Qatar(Rial) .2743 .2746 3.6455 3.6420

Russia(Ruble)-a .01458 .01495 68.579 66.911

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2665 .2666 3.7524 3.7514

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 3/6 2/28 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1683.65 1609.85 1296.75

Silver,troyounce 17.17 16.79 15.36

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1738.78 66.88 4.00

MapleLeaf 1755.50 83.60 5.00

MexicanPeso 2023.81 8.00 0.40

AustriaCrown 1641.80 3.00 0.18

AustriaPhil 1755.50 83.60 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1755.50 83.60 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1671.90

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 3/5 2/27 Ago Chg.

614.99410.95 Gold mining 576.27 559.45434.73 +3.01

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 53% 65% 70%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 38.7% 30.4% 40.6%

Bearish 39.6 39.1 28.7

Neutral 21.6 30.4 30.8

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 38% 42% 50%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 49.0% 51.3% 46.1%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 36,013 r7,274 27,669

Municipal (z) 6,690 r15,261 6,369

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.88 2.18 3.74

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.06 3.19 4.51

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

61.5 68.3 82.9

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4960.27 4573.03 3503.34

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3241.08 3189.43 2782.42

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

325.54 316.33 276.47

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.31 2.27 4.09

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.40 3.38 4.01

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.63 +.38 –1.47

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.21 2.52 3.99

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedFebruary24

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,987.9r3,999.13,732.7 6.84

M1(notadjusted) 3,964.0r3,871.03,754.2 5.59

M2(seas.adjusted) 15,533.5r15,530.914,479.3 7.28

M2(notadjusted) 15,437.1r15,489.714,396.7 7.23

WeekendedFebruary26

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.153 r1.126 1.122 2.76

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJanuary

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,982.2 3,978.4 3,737.4 6.55

M2(seas.adjusted) r15,438.8r15,318.514,465.9 6.73

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

A M J J A S O N D J F

Barron's Gold Mining Index (576.27)

s

sHandy & Harman Gold Price

Solid Gold:After a rate cut and the

market’s viral volatility, gold rose 5%—

ending the week at $1,684 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 3/2 3/3 3/4 3/5 3/6

NYSE 1.20 2.43 1.19 1.24 1.21

NYSEAmerican 2.76 .87 .51 .18 .90

Nasdaq .90 1.23 .90 .51 .57