2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Monday 6 April 2020
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G U Y C H A Z A N— BERLIN
Governments across Europe have begun
preparations to ease the lockdowns
imposed across much of the continent
to contain the coronavirus pandemic,
even if restrictions that have paralysed
the economy are expected to remain in
force for several more weeks.
France, Spain, Belgium and Finland
are among many countries that have set
up committees of experts to examine a
gradual easing of stay-at-home orders
for some businesses and schools while
avoiding a second wave of infections
that could overwhelm health services.
Spanish prime minister Pedro
Sánchez on Saturday extended the shut-down of his country for another two
weeks until April 26 but he said a ban
imposed last month on all non-essential
work including manufacturing and con-
struction would be lifted after Easter.
“When we have the [infection] curve
under control, we will shift towards a
new normality and towards the recon-
struction of our economy,” Mr Sánchez
added. “A specific team of epidemiolo-
gists has been working for two weeks
now on a plan to restart economic and
social activity.”
Angelo Borrelli, head of Italy’s Civil
Protection Agency which is in charge of
co-ordinating the national response to
the outbreak, suggested a “phase two”
of the country’s lockdown could begin
next month. “I don’t want to give dates,
but between now and May 16 we may
have further positive data that suggests
we can resume activities and then start
phase two,” he said.The French premier Édouard
Philippe said last week that the process
of “deconfinement” had no precedent
and would be “fearsomely complex”,
adding: “We are probably not heading
for a deconfinement that would be abso-
lute everywhere for everyone.”
Denmark, which was one of the first
countries in Europe to shut down activ-
ity and close its borders, last week
became the first to put a timetable on
the loosening of restrictions.
“If we Danes for the next two weeks —
beyond Easter — continue to stand
together, at a distance, and if the num-
bers remain stable and reasonable, then
the government will begin a gradual,
quiet and controlled opening of our soci-
ety again,” prime minister Mette Fred-
eriksen said on March 30.
Few other governments are willing to
put a timescale on the loosening of
restrictions not least because, accordingto most experts, it will require a massive
increase in testing capacity. Many worry
about undermining the stay-at-home
message with the onset of the Easter
holidays and warmer weather and with
populations already chafing at weeks of
confinement and the loss of earnings.
Germany, where the daily rate of con-
firmed coronavirus cases and deaths
has risen in recent days, has also begun
preparing what one official called a
“phase-out” that would be “acceptable
in terms of health policy”. “But we’ve
been careful about what we say in pub-
lic,” he added.
“The important message now is: we
are not in a phase of the pandemic
where we can tell people the measures
can now be relaxed,” Steffen Seibert,
spokesman for German chancellor
Angela Merkel, said on Friday.
Additional reporting by Miles Johnson in
RomeStay-at-home orders
Europe prepares to review lockdowns
France and Spain plan exit
strategies while aiming toavoid a second wave
M I L E S J O H N S O N— ROMEWhen at the end of February Lombardy
and Veneto recorded Italy’s first cases of
transmission of coronavirus, the two
regions quickly erected road blocks,
establishing Europe’s first lockdown
and a precedent for the rest of the conti-
nent. Since then the fortunes of the two
wealthy neighbours, which have some
of the best-resourced health systems in
Europe, have tragically diverged.
Struck by a human catastrophe
unseen in Europe outside of war, with
military trucks taking away corpses
from the city of Bergamo, Lombardy has
a death rate of 17 per cent. But Veneto’s
is just over 5 per cent. While virologists
caution that the percentage death rate is
closely tied to the level of testing, they
also attribute the gap to other factors,
such as Veneto’s reluctance to hospital-
ise compared with its neighbour.
As of Wednesday, Lombardy, which
has a population of 10m people,
accounted for 7,593, or 57.7 per cent, of
Italy’s total declared deaths from the
virus of 13,155. While Veneto, which has
a population of 4.9m, has suffered 499
deaths out of 9,625 diagnosed cases.
Higher levels of testing and tracing in
Veneto is the most widely cited explana-
tion for why the region has managed to
control its outbreak more effectively.
Luca Zaia, governor of Veneto, was
the first regional head in Italy to devise a
widespread testing programme that
involves drive-through swabs done in
cars, as well as tests in medical centres.
This went beyond World Health
Organization guidance, which advises to
test and trace suspected cases. On the
advice of the region’s scientists, Veneto
has to date conducted 133,289 tests as of
Saturday, the second highest in Italy
after the 141,877 of Lombardy in spite of
having half of its population.
Yet experts say testing is not the only
reason for the lower death rate.
Venetian doctors also cite the region’s
expertise in infectious disease, whichthey trace back to its pioneering history
dealing with viruses arriving in its port
from the east.
The word quarantine derives from
quarantena, the Venetian word for “forty
days”, or the amount of time ships arriv-
ing from plague-ridden destinations
were isolated.
For Giorgio Palù, one of Europe’s lead-
ing virologists, and scientific adviser to
the governor of Veneto, a critical factor
has been the number of diagnosed
patients taken into hospital.
Prof Palù said the hospitalisation rate
in Lombardy at the start of the outbreak
was about 65 per cent. This compares
with 20 per cent in Veneto, where the
majority were told to stay at home
unless urgent care was required.
“There has been more testing in
Veneto but people were kept at home
and not taken into hospitals. The more
patients you admit to the hospital, the
more cases you get. You create the out-
break as at the start nobody was takingcare of sampling the doctors or nurses,
[so] you were taking home the infec-
tion,” Prof Palù said.
His observation comes as more than
60 Italian doctors and health workers
have died, the majority of these in Lom-
bardy. A group of doctors from the Papa
Giovanni XXIII hospital in Bergamo
warned last month that hospitals had
become the main source of transmis-
sion of Covid-19 infections, and urged
more patients to be treated at home.
The Veneto region has a large network
of smaller health centres, which have
been used to diagnose and treat patients
in ways that have kept them out of large
hospitals, said Prof Palù.
The fact that Lombardy has a greater
proportion of private hospitals than
Veneto also contributed to more Cov-
id-19 patients ending up in hospitals, he
argued. Lombardy’s administration was
also under political pressure, he added.
“There were too many admissions
from the primary side, where the triagewas done. The Italian prime minister at
the start criticised the hospitals in Lom-
bardy, and it seems they responded by
wanting to show they were treating peo-
ple, not telling them to stay at home.”
Officials in Lombardy also said Rome
should have done more. “I put my mask
on the television, and they insulted me
and told me that I undermined Italy’s
credibility,” said Lombardy’s governor
Attilio Fontana this week. “Perhaps I
should have been tougher in opposing
the [central] government.” Late last
month, Lombardy established teams of
medics to monitor at home patients who
had been discharged from hospital.
For now, the mood in both regions is
sombre.
“Have we committed errors? Of
course we have,” said Giulio Gallera,
Lombardy’s head of welfare, last week.
“We have always given our best to offer
the many people who arrived in our
hospitals the necessary care... we have
done the best we could.”Italy.Mortality
Veneto offers clues for outbreak control
Region’s death rate from
Covid-19 is just a third of
its neighbour Lombardy
The Rialto fish
market in
Venice. The
Veneto region’s
high level of
testing and
tracing, as well
as its low
hospitalisation
rate, have
helped it
manage the
crisis— Manuel
Silvestri/ReutersSA M J O N E S— ZURICHIt took Matthias Knauer only a minute
or two to complete and scan the single-
page form for a liquidity lifeline from
the Swiss government. About 30 min-
utes after sending it, the money was in
his company’s account.The comparison with his computer
hardware support company’s UK sub-
sidiary, based in the North Yorkshire
town of Ilkley, could not be starker. Mr
Knauer has 80 staff in Ilkley and is the
town’s second-biggest employer.
After days of confusing phone calls to
UK authorities, the company’s applica-
tion for an emergency loan, part of a
multibillion pound package of funding
pledged by the government to support
small businesses, was denied.
The story has been the same for his
other subsidiaries in Europe, he said:
“The Brits are still trying to work out
what to do, in Germany the system got
completely overloaded and broke apart
and the French are stuck in paperwork.
“The backbone of all these economies
are SMEs and they need money now. I
don’t think politicians are aware of the
magnitude of this.”Switzerland unveiled its SFr20bn
($20bn) package of emergency loans to
support small businesses on March- In its first week of operating, it dis-
persed more than SFr15bn to 76,
businesses. On Friday, Bern announced
that it would double the facility to
SFr40bn. Its success is drawing atten-
tion elsewhere in Europe, with Swiss
banks and the government in contact
with European counterparts in recent
days over how the scheme is structured.
In the UK, the Treasury is considering
a sweeping overhaul of its coronavirus
lending scheme, barely a fortnight after
its launch. It has had 130,000 inquiries
but by Thursday last week said it had
granted only 983 loans.
In Germany, Europe’s largest emer-
gency loan scheme has had patchy suc-
cess: communication has been poor,
uptake low and some companies report
their banks telling them that money
may take days, if not weeks, to arrive.
In Italy, politicians last week spoke in
parliament and urged their government
to follow Switzerland’s model.
Even Swiss people accustomed to the
relative efficiency of their country
have been surprised at the speed of its
economic coronavirus counterattack.
“I’ve never experienced anything like
it,” Alberto Belloli, head of Belloli, a
family engineering business in the can-
ton of Graubünden, told the Financial
Times. “I applied on Friday afternoon
and we had the money on Monday
morning. It was a one-page form.”
The money, when it arrived, meant
that Mr Belloli could pay his staff and
adopt measures to protect his business.
“The co-operation between the bank-
ing system and federal government was
brilliant,” he said. “Speed is everything
here to secure jobs.”Getting the correct support for
smaller businesses will be the litmus
test of how the world’s biggest econo-
mies are handling the economic fallout
of Covid-19, say economists.
Hans Gersbach, professor of macr-
oeconomics at ETH in Zurich and an
adviser to the German ministry of eco-
nomic affairs, said SMEs were at the
frontline of the crisis. “If [smaller busi-
ness] cannot survive with sufficient
health and with the possibility to invest
in their businesses again the other side
of this health crisis, then the economy
will be in very great trouble.”
The Swiss scheme has two ele-
ments. Under the first, businesses can
apply for an immediate loan, worth up
to 10 per cent of their annual revenue,
capped at SFr500,000. The loan is inter-
est free and provided by Swiss banks,
which are underwritten with a full
credit guarantee on the amount by the
government. A simple declaration is all
that is needed. The second lends up to
SFr20m, also provided by the banking
system. Bern guarantees 85 per cent of
the loan, charged at 0.5 per cent inter-
est. The bank assumes risk of the last 15
per cent, charged at a competitive rate.Emergency funding
Swiss lead way with loans for small businesses hit by crisis
Swiss businesses can apply for an
immediate loan, interest free‘When we
have the[infection]
curve undercontrol, we
will shifttowards a
newnormality’
Pedro Sánchez,
Spain’s PMCases so far:
Greece places second camp of
asylum-seekers in quarantineGreece yesterday quarantined a second asylum-seek-
ers’ camp near Athens after an Afghan resident tested
positive for coronavirus, the migration ministry said. A
53-year-old man came to the medical unit in the camp
at Malakasa, 40km north of the Greek capital, showing
symptoms of Covid-19. He was taken to an Athens
hospital for testing.
It was the second case recorded in the past week at a
Greek facility for refugees and migrants.Iran sets date to loosen restrictions
Johnson has made serious mistakes,
says new opposition leader in UKKeir Starmer, the new leader of the UK’s opposition
Labour party, criticised Boris Johnson’s handling of the
crisis, saying the prime minister had made “serious
mistakes” in recent weeks.
Sir Kier won with 56 per cent of the first-round vote.
One of his first challenges will be holding the govern-
ment to account on its response to the outbreak. Mr
Johnson has written to opposition leaders urging them
to work closely with the government to tackle Covid-19.President Hassan Rouhani said yesterday Iranian
businesses with a low or moderate risk of spreading
coronavirus could resume work on April 11 in all provinces
except for Tehran.1,237,
confirmed cases and 67,260 deaths by 5.10pm yesterday
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE
Read more at ft.com/coronavirusCORONAVIRUS
ROUND-UP
Biden suggests Americans may not be
allowed to vote in person at electionJoe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for
president, yesterday suggested Americans may not be
allowed to vote in person at this year’s election, as he
urged election officials to focus on how to hold Novem-
ber’s vote in the middle of the coronavirus crisis.
Mr Biden said: “I think it’s time we start thinking
about how we’re going to hold elections.” He also sug-
gested his party might need to hold a virtual convention
this summer.Hong Kong finance minister warns
of broader economic threatPaul Chan, Hong Kong’s financial secretary, said the
economic impact of coronavirus has spread from retail
and tourism to almost all sectors in the Chinese terri-
tory. Many European and American customers had
refused to pay for goods or cancelled orders, exacerbat-
ing cash flow difficulties for many Hong Kong suppliers.
Writing on his blog yesterday, he said future relief
measures will shift from focusing on providing assist-
ance to individual industries to all companies.MAKE A SMART INVESTMENT
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