The Week UK - 14.03.2020

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14 March 2020 THE WEEK

ARTS

“Thisisahellofamomentforabook
likethistocomeout,”saidSteveBleach
inTheSundayTimes.Somuchso,
“somemightassumeit’salightning-fast
cash-inonaglobaltragedy”.They’d
bewrong:epidemiologistAdam
Kucharski,amathematicianwho
workedonthefightagainsttheEbola
andZikaviruses,completedhisstudy
of“howthingsspread”beforeCovid- 19 hadevenbeenheardof.
Althoughthebookdoesn’tdirectlyaddressthevirus,itscentral
argument–thattohalttheprogressofadiseaseyou“firsthave
tomasterthearithmetic”behindit–isof“pressinginteresttoall
ofus”.Therearemathematicalprinciplesgoverningcontagion,
heargues,andthesecanbe “appliedtoeverythingfromfolk
stories and financialcrisestoitchingandloneliness”.
Atthe heartofTheRulesofContagionisthe conceptof“R”,
or“reproductivenumber”,saidTomChivers inTheTimes.In
epidemiology,thisistheaveragenumberofpeopleeach infected
personwillgoontoinfect.The conceptwasn’tformulateduntil
the 1970 s,butthe“basicinsight” was developednearly acentury

earlier,bytheVictoriandoctorRonald

Ross.Inthecourseofhispioneering

workonmalaria,Rossrealisedthat to

successfullycontroladisease,youdon’t

needtoeradicateeverycase:“you

simplyhavetomakeitharderforitto

spread,sothatitsRdropsbelowone”.

Oncethathappens,itwilleventually

peterout.Covid-19’sR(likethatofflu)

isthoughttobebetween1.5and 3 .5:

theurgentchallengeformedical

authoritiesistousethetoolsavailable

• mostlyquarantiningandrestricting
  movement–tobringitbelowone.
  Unchecked,itwillfollowan“S”shape,
  “withthenumberofnewinfections
  shootingup,untilitstartstorunout
  ofsusceptiblepeople”.
  Whileepidemicssharemanycommonfeatures,theyalsoall
  have“distinctiveaspects”,saidCliveCooksonintheFinancial
  Times.“Neverbefore,forexample,hasinformationabouta
  newdiseasespreadaroundaninterconnectedworldmorerapidly
  thanduringthe 2020 coronavirusepidemic.”Whilethishas
  advantages(societiesandindividualsmaybe betterprepared),it
  alsohasdrawbacks,increasingtherisk ofpanicand paranoiaand
  causingmisinformation tospreadlikea“contag ion”–such asthe
  ideathatthevirus escapedfromagerm warfarelabin Wuhan.At
  anyrate,by“distilling thewisdomgatheredbystudyingprevious
  epidemicsovermore thanacentury”,Kucharski’sbookallows
  “thereadertomakesense ofwhatishappeningtoday”.

The Rules of Contagion

by Adam Kucharski

Profile 352pp £16.99

The Week Bookshop£14.99

Review of reviews: Books

Bookoftheweek

In 2016 ,thedocumentary-makerChrisAtkinswas
givenafive-yearprisonsentenceforusingatax
scamtofundoneof hisfilms, saidRosamund
UrwininThe SundayTimes.Havingbecomethat
“rarebreed,amiddle-class liberalwhohasseenthe
truehorror ofour penalsystem”,he has“donethe
inevitable”and written amemoirabouthistime
inside. Focusingon hisfirstninemonths injail,at
HMP WandsworthinsouthLondon,ABitofa
Stretchisadarklyfunnywork whichalsomakesa
compelling case forreform. Atkins startsoutinagraffiti-ridden cellin“ Beirut”,
one of Wandsworth’s toughest wings,said YvonneRobert sinThe Observer.
His cellmate,acocainedealer named Ted, soongives himavaluable lesson in
“shitiquette”: he turns upthevolume on theVictoria Derbyshireshow on
television anddisappearsbehind the toilet curtain.“Why dowe havetolisten
to this crap?” Atkinsasks. “Soyou don’t have tolisten to mine,”Tedreplies.
Most prisoners on Beirutarelocked up 23 hoursaday, saidBlakeMorrison
in The Guardian.Toget out of his cell, andearn money and otherprivileges,
Atkins involves himself in as many activities asposs ible –including “drylining”,
even though he hasnoidea what thatis.Soon, heis moved toHwing, the
“prisonequivalent of Hampstead”,where, ina“strange mirror of wider
society”, he is surrounded by fellow formerpublic schoolboys. Atkins is a
“fantasticallyinformative”guide tolife inside, offering sharp insights and
“boxes fullofs tatistics”, along with amusingexamplesofprison sl ang (an
electronic tagis a“chav nav”or“PeckhamRolex”).Heendswith aset of
“straightforward proposals”for making prisonsboth more humaneandmore
effective.“What arethe chancesoft hembeing adopted?”

ABit ofaStretch

by Chris Atkins

Atlantic 336pp £16.99

The Week Bookshop£14.99

Novel of the week

English Monsters

by James Scudamore

Jonathan Cape 368pp £16.99

The Week Bookshop£14.99

James Scudamore’sfourth novel isa“heart-

wrenching account” of the legacy of boarding

school abuse, said PhilipWomackinthe FT.In

the mid-1980s, ten-year-old Maxiss ent to “the

school on the hill”,where pupilsare “terrorised

by various hideous masters”. In his 20s, heruns

into an oldclassmateand discovers that the

schoolwas alsoasite of “systematicsexual

abuse”.Harrowingand richly insi ghtful,English

Monstersis a“searing indictment ofaculture

that downplays andcovers up horrors”.

Scudamore isatalentedwriter, and this

additionto the growing“child- abusefiction”

genre is full of “resonant phrases”, said David

GryllsinThe SundayTimes. However, the

sections setin Max’s adulthoodare “repetitive

and rambling”: he appears“unduly fascinated

by the coke-fuelledraves” of his “gildedbut

dam aged” friends.The co verisa dornedwith

aquote fromHilary Mantel,which proclaims

Scudamore to bea“forcein theEnglish novel”,

said John Self in The Spectator.Althou gh not

perfect, thisbookhas a“reac hand scope” which

“makes me think t hat Mantelmight beright”.

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Contagion:governedbymathematicalprinciples