Strengthening One’s Abilities 45thing that I’ll never do.... It’s like having a religion” (Wall Street
Journal, Jan. 3, 2000).
Similarly, Zweig, one of the masters, agrees that we should never
“fight the tape.” Yet Zweig also says that the biggest reason why
novice investors fail is their inability to be flexible. So which is it?
Actually, it’s the proper mix of the two, which we’ve defined as
complexity.
The other side of the coin—from judgers and their strict adher-
ence to a certain discipline—is perceivers who waffle between dis-
ciplines. I’ve worked in firms where the portfolio managers chased
the latest fad, always seeming to be a day late and a few hundred
million short. As sectors of the market come in and out of favor,
the perceivers invariably jump on too late and get off too late,
missing the excess returns and wondering why this pattern feels so
familiar. (Because, as perceivers, they’ve probably done it a dozen
times before.) The trick for perceivers is to establish some methods
for discipline and stick to them. Perhaps not rigidly, but enough to
establish a pedigreed rather than mongrel investing style.
Another area where perceivers can undermine their own best
efforts is in simple organization. Earlier in the book (Chapter 4)
we showed a picture of two offices, of a judger and a perceiver.
Despite what perceivers may say about their “unique” filing sys-
tems, most of the time more organization would help these folks
make better decisions. Organization, far from blocking creativity,
adds to it. The goal is to establish an environment of contained
chaos, an orderly mess. Too much chaos or too much order saps
the energy and creativity from the process. Decisions become rou-
tine and reflect the safety of the herd.
Accordingly, judgers and perceivers can each stretch a bit in
the other direction to round out their abilities. Judgers can skip
planning their weekends and just go with the flow. Or take a driv-
ing vacation and follow their noses, ending up wherever the spirit
takes them. In the decision-making process, they can practice re-05 ware 45 1/19/01, 1:06 PM