338 e lusive v ictories
of such a vast country. McChrystal’s command imploded when
members of his staff were quoted disparaging the vice president and
others, and Obama replaced him with Petraeus. Th e latter (now retired
and appointed to head the CIA) was still not given the time to fi ght the
counterinsurgency campaign he preferred. Despite heavy losses, the
Taliban continues to fi ght, and it has returned to parts of Afghanistan
from which it had been absent since the early 2000s. Reports suggest
that some Afghan army units have improved to the point that they can
operate independently, but these are few in number. As for the Afghan
people, their behavior mirrors that of civilians caught up in any “war
amongst the people”: to survive, they hedge their bets, aligning them-
selves cautiously with whichever side has the upper hand locally at the
moment. American troop withdrawals will occur, then, with the fate
of Afghanistan still much in doubt.
On the diplomatic side, too, there have been few surprises. Hamid
Karzai has looked to secure his political future among neighboring
regional powers (Pakistan, India, Iran, and perhaps China) eager to
shape Afghanistan to their own purposes. After public attempts to push
him to combat corruption proved futile, American offi cials resorted to
a more low-key approach, but the ongoing reality of limited leverage
has continued to undercut American appeals. He has sent mixed signals
about his willingness to seek a political accommodation with the
Taliban, too. While he refers to the insurgents as his “brothers,” some
reports claim he has done his utmost to scuttle American eff orts to
negotiate with Taliban leaders. At the same time, he still seeks long-
term security guarantees from Washington. Karzai’s stance evokes South
Vietnamese President Thieu’s desperate bids to thwart a peace deal
between the United States and Hanoi. Plainly, far from being an Amer-
ican puppet, the Afghan president marches to the beat of his own
drum.
Nor has the United States altered Pakistani behavior signifi cantly.
When Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, within a
mile of an army base, the Pakistanis voiced more anger at the raid than
dismay that the world’s most wanted terrorist had found shelter in
relative comfort within their borders. Th e Pakistanis have also sought
to curtail drone strikes and CIA activities in their border areas. At
least some elements within the Pakistani military and intelligence