Barron\'s - April 6 2020

M30 BARRON’S April 6, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedApr1:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 4,604,983 + 417,565 + 843,862

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 49,578 + 9,649 + 49,527

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... -7

Float -443 -253 + 136

OtherF.R.Assets 27,313 + 2,324 + 2,857

TotalFedCredit# 5,574,804 + 604,440 +1,665,932

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,219 + 14 + 354

Total 5,661,865 + 605,012 +1,666,243

Currencyincirc 1,876,878 + 17,112 + 152,132

Treas.CashHldgs 327 + 2 -9

Treas.FedDeposits 429,267 + 39,015 + 119,079

ForeignFedDeposits 17,208 + 6,849 + 11,965

OtherFedDeposits 266,631 -12,442 + 206,607

OtherFRliab/cap 52,768 + 6,131 + 8,388

Totalfactors 3,127,957 + 258,075 + 732,733

ReservesF.R.banks 2,533,908 + 346,937 + 933,510

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,338,421 -16,852 -121,354

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Mar25: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,108,932 1,788,394 17.92 1,692,266

Nonborrowed Res # 2,074,923 1,788,384 16.02 1,692,253

Required Res ## 203,801 212,269 -3.99 193,084

ExcessReserves: 1,905,131 1,576,125 20.87 1,499,182

Borrowed Reserves 34,009 10 339,990 13

Free Reserves ### 1,871,122 1,576,115 18.72 1,499,169

MonetaryBase 3,884,720 3,530,453 10.03 3,347,215

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 4/3 3/27 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1613.10 1617.30 1288.45

Silver,troyounce 14.39 14.39 15.15

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1693.33 65.13 4.00

MapleLeaf 1709.61 81.41 5.00

MexicanPeso 1971.12 8.00 0.41

AustriaCrown 1598.96 3.00 0.19

AustriaPhil 1709.61 81.41 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1709.61 81.41 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1628.20

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 4/2 3/26 Ago Chg.

614.99391.56 Gold mining 460.30 473.01453.89 –2.69

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 22% 23% 31%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 34.2% 32.9% 34.4%

Bearish 49.7 52.1 51.1

Neutral 16.0 15.0 14.5

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 29% 28% 29%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 44.8% 45.9% 47.9%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 71,235 r86,250 12,331

Municipal (z) 1,556 r1,625 7,473

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

3.05 3.42 3.50

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

5.51 5.47 4.34

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally
indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

55.4 62.6 80.8

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US
Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

5000.17 4877.86 3580.68

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index
includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-
ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate
debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

2980.35 2926.00 2827.89

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

336.38 332.16 279.81

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.84 2.27 3.88

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.96 3.62 3.89

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.09 –.40 –1.29

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 3.39 3.81 3.81

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedMarch23

M1(seas.adjusted) 4,337.4r4,150.23,711.5 16.86

M1(notadjusted) 4,402.1r4,081.53,809.9 15.54

M2(seas.adjusted) 16,298.0r15,861.914,521.4 12.23

M2(notadjusted) 16,355.8r15,969.614,554.3 12.38

WeekendedMarch25

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.133 1.051 1.138 -0.44

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedFebruary

M1(seas.adjusted) r4,019.7r3,982.43,760.4 6.90

M2(seas.adjusted) r15,536.0r15,438.814,478.8 7.30

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

M J J A S O N D J F M

Barron's Gold Mining Index (460.30)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Light Yellow: Buffeted by stimulus and

unemployment, gold’s price eased 0.3%

in the week, to $1,613 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 3/30 3/31 4/1 4/2 4/3

NYSE 1.36 .96 .89 .88 .54

NYSEAmerican .73 1.47 .21 .77 .23

Nasdaq .78 1.66 .48 1.12 .80

SouthKorea (Won) .0008087 .0008246 1236.61 1212.73

SriLanka (Rupee) .0052 .0053 190.5200 188.2800

Sweden (Krona) .0981 .1010 10.1911 9.9021

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0240 1.0517 .9766 .9508

Taiwan (Dollar) .03306 .03312 30.250 30.196

Thailand (Baht) .03029 .03074 33.010 32.530

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1485 .1549 6.7324 6.4540

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0365 .0357 27.4231 27.9994

U.K. (Pound) 1.2266 1.2447 .8153 .8034

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02272 .02297 44.020 43.530

----

Euro 1.0799 1.1138 .9260 .8978

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 3.00

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.50

FedFundsRate
Avg effective offer 0.09 0.17 2.42
Avg weekly auction-c 0.11 0.22 2.41

T-BillsRate
13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.086 0.000 2.434
13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.085 0.000 2.380
26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.101 0.081 2.449
26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.100 0.080 2.380
Avg weekly auction-c -0.02 0.11 2.39

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 4.25

BankersAcceptances
1 month 1.50 1.50 2.48
2 months 1.51 1.51 2.53
3 months 1.51 1.51 2.63
6 months 1.52 1.52 2.73

EuroLiborRate
1 month -0.389 -0.402 -0.416
3 months -0.232 -0.289 -0.359
6 months -0.170 -0.241 -0.310
12 months -0.167 -0.188 -0.197

LiborInterbankRate
1 month 0.99 0.99 2.47
3 months 1.39 1.45 2.59
6 months 1.21 1.07 2.64
12 months 1.05 0.97 2.75

ForeignPrimeRates
Canada 2.45 2.95 3.95
Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50
Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
30-Year Fixed Conv 2.43 2.41 3.75
Bank money market-z 0.16 0.16 0.23
Interest Checking-z 0.06 0.06 0.08
6-Month Certif-z 0.29 0.30 0.59
12-Month Certif-z 0.46 0.47 0.97
30 Month Accounts-z 0.51 0.51 1.12
5-Year Certificates-z 0.71 0.74 1.49
U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.95

4.10

3.25

2.40

1.55

0.70

S&P 100 CBOE

A M J J A S O N D J F M

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

s

CBOE

s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,April03,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0154 .0155 64.9125 64.3290

Australia (Dollar) .5996 .6161 1.6678 1.6231

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6528 2.6547 .3770 .3767

Brazil (Real) .1869 .1961 5.3512 5.0998

Bulgaria (Lev) .5530 .5685 1.8084 1.7591

Canada (Dollar) .7044 .7151 1.4196 1.3984

Chile (Peso) .001155 .001196 866.10 836.00

China (Renminbi) .1410 .1409 7.0923 7.0964

Colombia (Peso) .0002482 .0002487 4029.00 4020.34

Croatia (Kuna) .1417635 .1462951 7.05 6.84

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .03889 .04069 25.714 24.579

Denmark (Krone) .1447 .1492 6.9119 6.7022

Ecuador USDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0635 .0635 15.7603 15.7444

HongKong (Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7527 7.7516

Hungary (Forint) .002959 .003125 337.99 320.05

Iceland (Krona) .006946 .007218 143.96 138.55

India (Rupee) .01309 .01325 76.420 75.472

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000609 .0000620 16425 16140

Israel (Shekel) .2750 .2805 3.6366 3.5656

Japan (Yen) .009215 .009264 108.52 107.94

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002249 .002242 444.67 446.10

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2199 3.1934 .3106 .3131

Macau (Pataca) .1252 .1252 7.9870 7.9848

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2294 .2311 4.3585 4.3276

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0400 .0427 24.9837 23.3919

NewZealand (Dollar) .5868 .6030 1.7042 1.6584

Norway (Krone) .0943 .0954 10.6046 10.4874

Oman (Rial) 2.5981 2.5960 .3849 .3852

Pakistan (Rupee) .00598 .00605 167.250 165.340

Philippines (Peso) .01965 .01956 50.900 51.123

Poland (Zloty) .2356 .2455 4.2452 4.0731

Qatar (Rial) .2749 .2757 3.6381 3.6278

Russia (Ruble)-a .01305 .01270 76.643 78.741

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2658 .2663 3.7622 3.7559

Singapore (Dollar) .6948 .7007 1.4392 1.4272

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0525 .0567 19.0490 17.6300

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.