Financial Times Europe - 04.03.2020

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2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday4 March 2020


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I N T E R N AT I O N A L


VA L E R I E H O P K I N S— BUDAPEST


Slovenia’s parliament confirmed Janez
Jansa as its new prime ministeryester-
day, giving a third term to a centre-right
anti-immigrant politician who is a close
ally of Hungary’s premier Viktor Orban.
Mr Jansa succeedsMarjan Sarec, who
resigned in January two years into his
term after his minority government was
unable to push through ension andp
healthcare reforms.


Mr Sarec had called for new elections.
But Mr Jansa, the veteran leader ofthe
Slovenian Democratic Party, the largest
party in parliament, managed toform a
coalitionwith the centre-left Party of
Modern Centre (SMC), the conservative
New Slovenia, and Desus, a pensioner’s
party.
Mr Jansa has previously called for
stricter border controls and a strong
pan-European approach to migration,
in line with Mr Orban’s tough stance.
The Hungarian leader has campaigned
at rallies forMr Jansa, an early cam-
paigner for democracy in Slovenia, in
past polls.
He served as premier from 2004 until

2008 and a truncated term from 2012 to
2013, when he was sentenced to jail after
being convicted of taking a bribe in a
€278m arms deal. Mr Jansa served only

six months of his sentence because the
constitutional court overturned the
conviction before the end of the prison
term. He has continued to deny all alle-
gations of wrongdoing.

Mr Jansa has told parliament he
would try to push through a modified
version of Mr Sarec’s healthcare
reforms, arguing that change is needed
if the country is to meet the cost of car-
ing for an ageing population. He also
said thattax increases on wages would
be needed to pay for increased health-
care costs for the elderly.
“Slovenia is the eighth oldest popula-
tion in the world, one of the oldest in
Europe, older than the European aver-
age,” said Mr Jansa. “The whole of
Europe has this problem, and Slovenia
is the country with the highest demo-
graphic risk by 2050 on the European
continent.”

He also reiterated the need for action
to boost economic growth,which has
slowed to under 2 per cent. “We are
aware there are important challenges
ahead,” he said after the vote. “Through
responsible management of the country
and integrative policy we will be able to
overcome. Today is the first step.”
Though his coalition has more sup-
port — 52 out of 90 MPs support him —
than Mr Sarec’sminority government, it
may still prove to be unstable, said Slov-
ene political analyst Aljaz Pengov
Bitenc.
With two years before the next elec-
tion is due, “it could all easily blow up”,
Mr Pengov Bitenc said.

B E N JA M I N PA R K I N —MUMBAI

India’s effort to recover from a severe
economic slowdown is being set back
as t he spreading coronavirus weighs on
growthanddisruptsindustry.

Growth in what was until recentlythe
fastest-growing large economy has tum-
bled in the past two years to a six-year
low of 4.7 per cent in the last quarter of
2019, revised data from the statistics
office show.
“We have been slowing and there is no
real sign of recovery,” said Shumita
Deveshwar, director of India research at
TS Lombard. “Add to that the coronavi-
rus and the potential implications...
there is a big cloud over India.”
Economists had expected growth to
pick up in the last quarter of 2019,
helped in part by better data for manu-
facturing and tractor sales.But those
hopes are fading as the virus spreads
globally, prompting agencies and ana-
lysts to cut their growth forecasts.
The OECD club of mostly wealthy
nations on Monday estimated that gross
domestic product would grow at 5.1 per
cent in the 12 months to March this year,
down from its estimate of about 6 per
cent. Fitch, the rating agency, trimmed
its growth estimate for the period to
4.9 per cent from 5.1 per cent.
The revised statistics office figures
also showed that growth peaked in late
2017, earlier than expected, and
included a sharper drop in investment
than previously believed.
“The most worrying aspect.. .is that
the latest numbers show little sign of the
slowdown abating,” said Shilan Shah, a
senior economist at Capital Economics.
India’s economy isless integrated
with China than many of its neighbours.
Analysts say this has helped limit the
immediate pain. And the spread of the
virus in India so far appears limited: a
new case yesterday brought the total
number of confirmed infections to six.
But China isa vital supplier to indus-
tries such as automotive and pharma-
ceuticals, which are feeling the pinch.
India sources more than 70 per cent of
pharma ingredients, a quarter of auto
parts and the bulk of supplies for elec-
tronicsfrom China, says Nomura.
Many businesses say supplies are run-
ning low.Harsh Goenka, chairman of
RPG, the car tyres to pharma producer,
said supplies of chemicals and other raw
materials sourced from China would
lastuntil around the end of the month.
The group previously bought pharma
ingredients from suppliers around
Wuhan, where the virus originated and
where economic activity has ground to a
halt, and has struggled to find alterna-
tive sources. An attempt to obtainraw
materials from Singapore was ham-
pered after it could not findships.
“In India, the reaction has been slow,”
Mr Goenka said. “There are so many
negative factors at play, now you have
one [the virus] which is very over-
whelming.”
Venu Srinivasan of TVS, which makes
motorcycles, said the business had lost
about 10 per cent of production in Feb-
ruary because of a lack of Chinese-made
fuel injection parts.
“One would have exp e c te d a
V-shaped recovery, but instead you
have an L-shaped recovery,” said Mr
Srinivasan. “It’s been the long haul.”

Fragile coalition


Orban ally confirmed as Slovenia premier


Controversial leader Jansa


pledges reform and higher


taxes to fund healthcare


South Asia


India suffers


setback in


effort to


escape severe


slowdown


B E N E D I C T M A N D E R— BUENOS AIRES

Uruguay’s new government wants to
offer tax breaks to entice wealthy
Argentines to relocate across the river
Plate to boost local investment, but the
richneedlittleencouragementtogo.

Ever since Alberto Fernández took
powerin December and raised taxes on
personal assets, Argentines have been
weighing the benefits of emigrating to
escape what many see as confiscatory
taxes. The tax rate on assets held abroad
is now double the local rate — up to 2.
per cent — which is triple the level under
the previous government.
An exodus of capital would be worry-
ing. The leftist Mr Fernández is hoping
to drive aninvestment-led recovery hatt
would put an end to a recession in its
third year. The economy shrank about 2
per cent last year and there has been
scarcely any growth at all over the past
decade in Argentina. Compounding
matters is alooming sovereign default
on about $100bn of foreign debt.
“When you have higher taxes, more
economic controls and an [increas-
ingly] overvalued currency, with these
rules of the game investment is not

going to happen,” warned an economist,
referring to the protectionist turn the
economy has taken since Mr Fernán-
dez’s populist Peronist party won power.
Taxes on soya products — Argentina’s
most important export — have
increased rom 25 per cent to 30 perf
cent, and are set to rise further, while
those on corn and wheat have risen from
7 per cent to 12 per cent.
Wealthy Argentines such asMarcos
Galperín, the billionaire co-founder of
tech unicornMercado Libre, the coun-
try’s most valuable company, have left.
Businesses are also putting decisions on
hold — companies such asAmazon,
General Motors nda Nike ave beenh
reported in local media to be freezing
investment plans. Some companies are
analysing whether to leave Argentina
altogether, and head hunters have seen
a marked increase in executives looking
for jobs abroad.
The country’s most competitive sec-
tors, such as agribusiness and energy —
which the government is banking on to
provide much-needed foreign currency
from exports — have been hit by higher
export taxes and caps on fuel prices.
One senior executive at an international

oil company doubts that themain
investments it hopes to attract into the
vast Vaca Muerta shale field will materi-
alise: “My guess is they will just muddle
through, with investment levels similar
to the previous government.”
Economic measures aimed at stabilis-
ing one of thehighest inflation rates ni
the world include fixing the exchange
rate and stricter capital controls, freez-
ing utility tariffs, caps on credit card
interest rates and clamping down on
wage negotiations.
“None of these measures favours
investment or exports,” said Ignacio

Labaqui, analyst at Medley Global Advi-
sors. “If they are just emergency meas-
ures while they solve the debt situation,
well, maybe the government will be suc-
cessful. But if they are all there is, it just
looks like a repetition of recipes that we
have already seen and in the past only
led to growing challenges.”
Analysts are especially concerned
that the gap between the official and
parallel exchange rates that has reap-
peared since the implementation of cap-
ital controls last year could continue to
widen, fuelling inflation further and
leading to another devaluation.
Even if the government is successful,
that will do little to fix broader eco-
nomic woes, such as low growth, high
inflation and a volatile exchange rate.
“Clearly, fixing the debt situation will
not solve Argentina’s structural prob-
lems,” said Marina dal Poggetto, execu-
tive director of EcoGo, an economic con-
sultancy in Buenos Aires, though it
would at least remove the most urgent
financial pressures facing Mr Fernan-
dez’s embattled administration and
enable it to turn its attention to the rest
of its challenges. “For now, everything is
on standby,” she added.

Higher taxes


Rich Argentines find Fernández’s medicine hard to swallow


Alberto Fernández and his deputy,
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

‘Slovenia is the country


with Europe’s highest
demographic risk by 2050’

Janez Jansa

N A J M E H B OZO R G M E H R— TEHRAN


In less than two weeks the number of
confirmed cases of coronavirus in Iran
has jumped from two to more than
2,300, shaking public trust in the
Iranian regime’s capacity to contain the
disease and exacerbating the country’s
economic isolation.
After asserting that the outbreak was
under control a week ago, the number of
officially reported cases has doubled
almost daily and at least 77 people have
died,according to he latest officialt
figures.
In a sign that a belated government
response may be getting under way, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard said that it
was opening its hospitals to coronavirus
patients. Iran’s elite military force also


said that it was ready to set up makeshift
facilities with a further 8,000 beds. But
medical professionals expressed con-
cern that the response is too little and
too late and that the delay has already
enabled the virus to spread unchecked.
“Officials did not confirm the virus
had reached Iran for one month, and
then underestimated the impacts of the
disease by telling people it is like a flu,”
said a doctor in Khuzestan province,
where he had been treating coronavirus
patients and expected ahuge increase in
fatalities this week.
“The more the officials are scared of
scaring people, the more the virus will
spread and the country will be further
paralysed,” he doctor said.t
The first cases of the virus were
confirmed in Qom on February 19 but
more than two weeks later the Islamic
regime is still refusing to quarantine the
holy city that is home to 1.2m people.
Many religious people have continued
to travel to the Islamic centre. Some
have shared videos online of pilgrims
licking the gold-plated lattice windows
that surround the holy tomb in the
belief the site will cure infection rather
than pass on the virus.


In an unprecedented intervention,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme
leader, has sought to curb such behav-
iour, signalling that Friday prayers in
main cities could be cancelled for the
first time since the 1979 revolution.
Ayatollah Ahmad Marvi, custodian of
the holy shrine in the northeastern city
of Mashhad, said he would shut the site
if instructed to by Tehran. Senior clergy
in Qom have advised followers to listen
to health officials but have not yet shut
their shrine.
“Some radical figures... believe that
this would go down in history [as a dis-
grace] if they abandoned the holy sites
and ceased religious duties due to a
disease outbreak,” said Moham-
mad-Ali Abtahi, a cleric and a
former Iranian vice-president.
“There are even some reli-
gious people in other parts of
the country who think this is
the time to show their loy-
alty to Islam and to Qom by
travelling there in its difficult
days,” he added.
The delayed response and
surge in he number oft ases inc

the past week has stoked suspicion that
officials concealed the existence of the
outbreak and its extent for most of Feb-
ruary. At least three parliamentarians
have accused the government of under-
stating the number of cases.
Health officials dismiss talk of a
cover-up but aspects of the outbreak are
unusual. Based on official figures the
mortality rate in Iran is the highest in
the world, suggesting that either there
are more cases than are eing recordedb
or that the virus is proving more deadly
than in any other country.
Public panic has been exacerbated by
the number of cases confirmed among
senior political officials. At least 20 MPs,
the vice-president of women’s affairs
and thedeputy health ministerhave all
tested positive for coronavirus in the
past week.
Socially, the impact of the outbreak
has been varied. While the streets and
restaurants in more affluent parts of
Tehran, the capital, are deserted, people
in poorer parts say they cannot afford to
self-quarantine.
“Can I stay at home? Who is going to
pay for the rent of this shop?” said one

vegetable seller in Tehran, which
remains busy. “I am at risk, I know, but
life and death are the same to me now.”
In Zabol, a town on the border with
Afghanistan, one man said life had not
changed at all. “People have no idea
about the risks of the virus or say it is hot
here and hence there is no risk.”
Many Iranians say the armed forces
need to intervene more forcefully to
impose internal travel restrictions. In
addition to opening more hospitals,
members of the Revolutionary Guards’
volunteer wing have said they will join
300,000 medical teams travelling
across the country, knocking on doors to
prevent further spread.
Iran’s economy is suffering. Trade
with neighbouring states, vital in the
face of crippling US sanctions, has been
increasingly restricted as countries
including Afghanistan, Iraq and Turkey
shut their borders.
“In practice, the country is isolated
and cut off from the rest of the world,
even from our neighbours,” said one
businessman. “This feels like sweeping
sanctions are imposed on us, something
the US could not do.”

Tehran. ases surgeC


Spread of virus shakes trust in Iran’s leadership


Islamic regime isolated and


under pressure after perceived


slow response to infection


A medic treats a
patient with the
Covid-19 virus at
a hospital in
Tehran. People
wearing face
masks are
commonplace in
the Iranian
capital
Koosha Mahshid Falahi/Mizan
News Agency/AFP/Getty

‘The more the officials


are scared of scaring


people, the more the


virus will spread’


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