4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Wednesday4 March 2020

A

mounting war of attrition n north-west Syriai

betweenTurkeyandtheRussia-backedforces

of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in the

pastweeklurchedtowardsall-outwar.

Air and drone strikes have killed scores of

troops on both sides. Officials, diplomats and medical

sourcessaytheFebruary27airstrikesonTurkishtroopsin

Idlib — probably carried out by Russianas well as Syrian

warplanes causedsubstantiallymorethanthe34deaths—

towhichAnkaraadmitted.

Morethan1mSyrianrefugeeshavebeentrappedagainst

the Turkish border with Idlib. Now, Turkish president

Recep Tayyip Erdogan as said they (and the 3.6m Syrianh

refugees already inside Turkish borders) are free to move

north into Europe, expandingIdlib’s humanitarian crisis

tothebordersofGreece.

How did this new disaster creep up while the world tried

to cast Syria from its mind? Idlib is the last redoubt of the

rebellion that erupted in 2011 against the Assad regime.

One of the first cities to rise up, it has been the pivot of a

warthathassavedtheworstforlast.

Turkey and Russia, though on opposite sides in Syria’s

war, entered an alliance of convenience after the 2016

attempted coup against Mr Erdogan, which he partly

blames on the west. Although they designated Idlib a “de-

escalationzone”in2018,theprovincehasbecomeabottle-

neck for rebels and their families fleeing from other areas

recaptured by Damascus. The Assad regime and its spon-

sorsarenowpoisedtomakeitthefinalkillingfield.

Backed by Russia’s air force, a depleted Syrian army —

reinforced from Decem-

ber by Iran-supplied

forces — made headway

in southern Idlib. The

strategic logic was to

retake two arterial high-

ways: one from Damas-

cus north to Aleppo, the

other west to the coast.

Moscow complained that

Ankara had failed to fulfil a pledge to rein in Hayat Tahrir

al-Sham, an al-Qaeda offshoot with some 20,000 fighters

in Idlib province. WhenTurkey’s 12 “observation posts” in

Idlib were attacked last month, Ankara sent in at least

three armoured brigades. On February 26 they recaptured

Saraqeb, the junction of the two strategic highways, fight-

ing alongside HTS jihadis. Assad forces struck back

lethally the next day. Turkey replied with greater force,

killing Syrian and Iranian troops and fighters of Hizbollah,

the Tehran-backed Lebanese paramilitaries. This is a spi-

ral.TheskiesaboveIdlibarecrowdedwithrivalwarplanes

anddrones.Atleast3mciviliansareatrisk.

The EU, which struck a deal with Turkey in 2016 to stem

the flow of refugees, hascalled an emergency meeting fo

foreign ministers. Mr Erdogan is to meet Vladimir Putin,

his Russian counterpart, in Moscowtomorrow. Mr

Erdogan is looking exposed. His insistence that Damascus

should withdraw to the “de-escalation” lines Ankara

agreed with Moscow in 2018, and his apparent refusal to

acceptanewTurkishenclavenorthofSaraqebanditsvital

junction,risksconfrontationwithRussia.

Thatrisks Turkey’s two north-west enclaves in Afrin

and around Jarabulus — taken in 2016 and 2018 with Mr

Putin’s imprimatur — and even the Turkish buffer zone

emerging along Syria’s north-eastern border afterthe US

pulled back and Ankara invaded last autumn. Nato, of

which Turkey was once a stalwart, will probably not come

to its aid after Ankara’s purchase ofRussia’s S-400 air

defencesystem.

Mr Erdogan, who sees Turkey as a standalone regional

hegemon and prefers transactional relations to normative

alliances, is vulnerable. His interests in the region are to

stop Syrian Kurdish fighters allied with insurgents inside

Turkey from establishing an autonomous entity on his

borderandtokeepoutanymoreSyrianrefugees.Heneeds

Mr Putin’shelp on both counts. As one leading Turkish

analyst put it: “What interest does Turkey have in slowing

downthefallofIdlib?”

[email protected]

GLOBAL INSIGHT

SYRIA

David

Gardner

Erdogan risks conflict

with Moscow while

needing Putin’s help

The Assad regime

and its sponsors are

now poised to make

Idlib province the

final killing field

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

M I C H A E L P E E L— N I C O S I A
K E R I N H O P E— AT H E N S

The EU faces a looming refugee “disas-
ter”,thepresidentofCyprushaswarned
after a threat from Turkey to allow
migrants to cross into Europe prompted
violent clashes on the Greek-Turkish
border.
Nicos Anastasiades told the Financial
Times that Europe was paying the price
for being absent from Middle Eastern
conflicts, as he urged the EU to stand up
to the “blackmail” vow by Turkish pres-
ident Recep Tayyip Erdogan to “open
the gates” torefugees fleeing the fight-
ing i nnorthernSyria.
“It is going to be a disaster,” the Cyp-

riot leader warned, when asked what

would happen if the EU did not push

back against Mr Erdogan and protect its

2016 deal with him to stop migration to

Europe via Turkey. “On the one hand is

the humanitarian aspect: you should

take care of all these people. But who is

creatingtheproblemisthequestion.”

Mr Anastasiades’ remarks highlight

the rising tensions between the EU and

Turkey as thefour-year-old accord ee-t

ters on the brink. The EU agreed to pay

€6bn to support Turkish efforts under

the deal truck following the 2015-16s

increase in arrivals in the bloc. But the

Cypriot president accused Mr Erdogan

of attempting to “use the refugees to

raise money” from the EU and “taking

theadvantagetoblackmaileverytime”.

“Will Erdogan continue to play the

roleheisplaying,Imeanasadominator

of the area [and] a spoiler of the peace,

withoutanyreaction?”MrAnastasiades

asked. “We are absent from the scenes

where the events are taking place. Why

[are we] not playing a role in Syria, why

[are we] not playing a role in Libya?

Whyareweacceptingallwearewitness-

ingasregardstoErdogan’spolicy?”

Ursula von der Leyen, European

Commission president,yesterday out-

lined €700m of financial assistance to

Greece, saying the border issue was for

Europe as a whole to address. “We will

manage it in an orderly way, with unity,

solidarity and determination,” Msvon

der Leyen said at a press conference

with other EU leaders including Kyria-

kos Mitsotakis, Greek prime minister.

“Those who test Europe’s unity will be

disappointed,”shesaid.

Turkey, home to 3.6m Syrian refu-

gees, accuses EU countries of failing to

take their fair shareand ailingf to help

its militaryfend off an assault by the

Russia-backed Syrian regime in the

rebel-held enclave of Idlib. The regime

offensive has created what aid groups

say is the worst humanitarian crisis of

Syria’s nine-year civil war, with almost

1mpeopleforcedtofleetowardsTurkey

inlessthanthreemonths.

While the Turkey-Syria border

remains closed, Mr Erdogan has sought

to raise the pressure on the EU by

encouraging refugees already in Turkey

to head to the country’s frontiers with

Greece, telling Europe: “You are now

takingyourshare.”

Mr Anastasiades said 100 African

nationalsyesterday became the latest

people to seek asylum in Cyprus after

arriving in the Turkish-occupied north-

ernpartoftheMediterraneanisland.

Cyprus has the highest number of ref-

ugees per capita of any EU country, with

about15,000registeredasylumseekers.

Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in

Ankara and Mehreen Khan in Brussels

Border violence

Cyprus attacks Ankara’s refugee stance

President accuses Turkey

of ‘blackmail’ by urging

migrants to head west

‘Will

Erdogan

continue to

play the

roleas a

dominator

of the area

[and] a

spoiler of

the peace?’

Nicos

Anastasiades

H E N RY F OY— M O S C O W
L AU R A P I T E L— I S TA N B U L
C H LO E C O R N I S H— B E I R U T

Turkish attacks on Russia-backed
forces in Syria’s Idlib province are test-
ing Moscow’s relationship with Ankara
as all sides raise the stakes in the latest
phaseofSyria’snine-yearcivilwar.
Seekingtoavengethekillinglastweek
of 34 Turkish soldiers, President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has bombarded Syrian
regime targets in the province in the
past three days, warning that the
destruction of fighter jets and killing of
more than 100 pro-regime combatants
is“onlythebeginning”.
The heightened conflict has laid bare
the risks inherent in the Kremlin’s
gamble of allowing President Bashar al-
Assad of Syria to fight Mr Erdogan for
control of Idlib, Syria’s last rebel-held
province, and left Russia president
Vladimir Putin caught between the two
leaders who have helped him gain
greaterinfluenceintheMiddleEast.
The Turkish president’s threatened
escalation of hostilities risks all-out war
as he prepares to meet Mr Putin in Mos-
cow tomorrow.The two leaders will
seek a resolution to an almost year-long
battle that is edging the countries closer
toadirectmilitaryconfrontation.
“Moscow is worried about the possi-
bility of Syrian-Turkish clashes degen-
erating into a real war. Casualties on
both sides bring that war closer,” said
Dmitri Trenin, head of the Moscow
CarnegieCenter.
“Russia will try to get some sort of a
ceasefire to prevent being eventually
draggedintowar,butitwillputpressure
on Erdogan to yield on the ground.”
A 2018 deal between Mr Putin and Mr
Erdogan to prevent a Syrian assault on
Idlib,whichborders Turkey, fell to
pieces last year as both sides ccuseda
eachotherofbreachingtheterms.
In recent weeks,fighting has intensi-
fied , with more than 50 Turkish mili-
tarypersonnelkilledinairstrikesbythe
Russia-backedregime.

Moscowsays Syria isfighting terror-

ists supported by Ankara.Turkey has

consistently sought to avoid blaming

Moscow directly and instead turned its

ireonDamascus.

“We said that we would avenge the

death of our martyrs,” said Mr Erdogan

on Monday, even as he said he would

like a ceasefire in Idlib. “By destroying

the regime’s war planes and tanks, we

aremakingitpayaveryheavyprice.”

Al Watan, a pro-government Syrian

newspaper, wrote that with the start of

the new offensive, Turkey had

“declaredwaronSyria”.

Operation Spring Shield,Turkey’s lat-

est campaign, s Ankara’s fourth mili-i

tary offensive in Syria in as many years.

But it is the first to directly target the

Assad regime, unleashing the power of

the second-largest military in Nato on

thedepletedSyrianarmedforces.

“It is quite logical that Russia would

not be able to dodge negative conse-

quences from [Mr] Erdogan for ever. In

fact, it is a great surprise that it lasted so

long,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of

the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and

Technologies, a Moscow-based defence

think-tank.

The Kremlin declined on Monday to

commentonthefreshTurkishoffensive

but reiterated its support for the Syrian

operations and endorsed a statement

from the Russian defence ministry that

Moscow “cannot guarantee the safety of

TurkishaviationintheSyriansky”.

“Our stance is absolutely consistent

and unwavering,” Kremlin spokesman

DmitryPeskovsaid.“WesupportSyria’s

territorial integrity and back up Syria’s

intention to continue fighting terrorists

andterroristgroups.”

The defence ministry statement was

an “indirect” threat to Ankara, Mr

Trenin said. “It’s not clear whether Rus-

sia would actually shoot down Turkish

planes over Syria but testing that would

be reckless. It doesn’t mean it won’t

happen.”

In a sign that this threat may have

worked, analysts said that the pace of

Turkish drone attacks had slowed on

Mondayaftera72-hourblitz,suggesting

that the Kremlin still retains the ability

tode-escalatethesituation.

Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istan-

bul-based think-tank Edam, said that

Moscow appeared to have chosen to

allow Mr Erdogan to attack regime tar-

gets for a few days in order to “appease”

public anger while also showing the

Turkishpresidentthat“hisambitionsin

Idlib are still conditional on Russian

acquiescence”.

Mr Ulgen argued that, given the con-

tinued vulnerability of Turkish soldiers

in Idlib, Mr Erdogan would go to Mos-

cow with a “weak hand” and was likely

to be asked by Mr Putin to concede the

regime’s recent gains and accept a nar-

rower zone of influence. “If he doesn’t

accept that, what’s the alternative?” Mr

Ulgensaid.“Togobacktoamilitarysce-

nario,whichisveryrisky.”

Murat Yesiltas, director of security

studies at the Ankara think-tank Seta,

whichhascloselinkstotheTurkishgov-

ernment, said that Turkeycould walk

awayifthetwosidescouldnotagree.

“Pandora’s box has already been

opened in terms of the potential for mil-

itary conflict between Turkey and the

regime,”hesaid.

Syria. ivil warC

Idlib clashes strain Russia ties with Turkey

Putin caught between two

leaders who have boosted his

influence in the Middle East

Convoy:

displaced Syrian

children talk to

Turkish soldiers

on the highway

linking Idlib

to theborder

crossing with

Turkey on

Monday

AarefWatad/AFP/Getty

J O S E P H C OT T E R I L L— J O H A N N E S B U R G

South Africa has entered its second
recession in two years after rolling
powerblackoutsstalledPresidentCyril
Ramaphosa’seffortstorevivegrowth.

The economy contracted 1.4 per cent in
the fourth quarter of 2019, according to
official statistics releasedyesterday,
far outpacing analyst forecasts of a
0.2percentdecline.
The contraction came after a 0.8 per
centdropineconomicoutputinthepre-
vious quarter, leading to a second reces-
sion — defined as two quarters
of negative growth — since 2018. The
slowdown was felt across the economy
with most sectors recording falls in out-
put,saidthestatestatisticsagency.
The rapid return to recession will pile
pressure on Mr Ramaphosa, whose
pledge of a “new dawn” for an economy
beset by corruption has flagged since he
becamepresidenttwoyearsago.
The presidenthas faced fierce resist-
ance in the ruling African National Con-
gress to his plans to overhaul state-
owned companies, not leastEskom, the
brokenstatepowermonopoly.
Eskomhadtheworstgenerationcrisis

in its history in December when ageing

power plants failed, and blackouts left

mines, factories and shopping centres

withoutpowerforhoursatatime.

Overall he economy grew onlyt

0.2 per cent in 2019, the lowest rate in a

decade and far below the annual rate of

population increase.Growth per capita

hasfallenforthepastfiveyears.

“On a full year basis, it signals the

weakesteconomicgrowthseensincethe

global financial crisis, and this is even

before the hit to growth from the coro-

navirus slowdown globally,” said Razia

Khan, chief economist for Africa and

the Middle East at Standard Chartered.

The South African Reserve Bank has

warned that growth will remain as low

as 1 per cent a year as long as Eskom’s

problems persist. The central bank has

forecast0.4percentgrowththisyear.

Mr Ramaphosa was unsparing in his

comments about the power problems.

“Effortsoverthepasttwoyearstorevive

the economy and rebuild institutions

have been undermined by the electric-

ity crisis, further constraining growth

and placing an additional burden on

publicfinances,”hesaidthisweek.

Thestagnanteconomyandaresulting

drop in revenue collection have left

state coffers in their weakest position

sincethestartofANCrulein1994.

Tito Mboweni, finance minister, said

last week that Pretoriawould cut civil

service pay increases to keep debt levels

under control, setting Mr Ramaphosa’s

government on a collision course with

thepowerfultradeunions.

Mr Ramaphosa has said the attempt

to curb wage bill growth but avoid

steeper spending cuts was a “deliberate

decision not to pursue a path of auster-

ity”, which, he said, would have done

furtherdamagetotheeconomy.

Economy

South Africa tumbles back into recession

Power failure: Eskom has been beset

by generator breakdowns

D O N W E I N L A N D— B E I J I N G

The US justice department has charged

two Chinese nationals with laundering

more than $100m worth of virtual cur-

rency connected to a North Korean

hackingoperation.

The indictment is the first of its kind in

the US government’s fight to stop Kim

Jong Unfrom raising billions of dollars

through cyber attacks sed to fundu

NorthKorea’sweaponsprogrammes.

Justice department documents

released late on Monday said North

Korean co-conspirators stole about

$250m in 2018 by hacking a cryptocur-

rency exchange. Those funds were then

laundered via hundreds of transactions

meant to disguise the origins of the vir-

tualcurrencies.

Between the end of 2017 and April

2019,ChinesenationalsTianYinyinand

LiJiadongtookpartinthescheme,laun-

dering more than $100m using 113 vir-

tual currency accounts and addresses,

accordingtothejusticedepartment.

“Today, we are publicly exposing a

criminal network’s valuable support to

North Korea’s cyber heist programme

and seizing the fruits of its crimes,” said

John C Demers, assistant attorney-gen-

eralatthejusticedepartment’sNational

SecurityDivision.

The US Treasury department also

sanctioned the Chinese nationals for

assistingLazarusGroup,aNorthKorean

state-sponsored cyber group that has

alreadybeensanctionedbytheUS.

The individuals are not in US custody.

Lazarus Group was linked to the hack-

ing of India’s Kudankulam nuclear

powerplantinOctoberlastyear.

In recent years, Mr Kim’s regime has

been accused of deployingthousands of

hackers that bring in hundreds of mil-

lions of dollars annually through illicit

cyber ctivities. The revenues deriveda

by these operations are believed to pro-

vide core funding for developing weap-

onsintheisolatedStaliniststate.

The UN said last year that North

Korean agents had stolen about $2bn

from banks and cryptocurrency

exchanges, some of which is believed to

fundanuclearweaponsprogramme.

Hackingcryptocurrency exchanges

has presented a new degree of difficulty

for authoritiesworldwide because the

exchanges are lightly regulated in some

jurisdictions and transactions in digital

assetsareoftenanonymous.

Brian A Benczkowski, assistant attor-

ney-general, noted in a statement that

the actions highlighted the justice

department’s ability to “pierce the veil

of anonymity provided by cryptocur-

renciestoholdcriminalsaccountable”.

The documents from the justice

department reveal a high degree of

sophistication in the efforts to launder

stolen funds. Prepaid Apple iTunes gift

cards andChinese bank accounts were

usedbytheChinesenationalstolaunder

thefunds,thedocumentsclaimed.

Mr Tian transferred about $1.4m

worth of bitcoin into prepaid Apple gift

cards, according to the treasury depart-

ment;$34m was transferred to Chinese

banks.Several Chinese financial institu-

tions have beentargeted by US authori-

ties orf alleged connections to North

Koreanbusinessactivities.

Cryptocurrency laundering

Chinese nationals charged over N Korea hack

The revenues derivedare

believed to provide core

funding for developing

weapons in the North

MARCH 4 2020 Section:World Time: 3/20203/ - 17:47 User:david.owen Page Name:WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA, 4, 1