Financial Times Weekend 22-23Feb2020

(Dana P.) #1

2 ★ FT Weekend 22 February/23 February 2020


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NAT I O N A L


C H R I S T I G H E— NEWCASTLE

Robert Frewen will be thinking of a
forthcoming ban on the sale of coal and
wet wood as he lights the fire in the
library at his 16th century stone farm-
house in Upper Swaledale, North York-
shire, today.
Mr Frewen, a rural surveyor for the
Country Land & Business Association in
the north of England, cares about the
environment, he says, and is keen to see
action on global warming.
But he is fearful the government,
under pressure to meet its target of cut-
ting emissions to close to zero by 2050, is
introducing new regulations that could
have unintended consequences, hitting
rural communities, where many locals
are struggling to make ends meet.
“I’m particularly worried about the
rural poor and the people who supple-
ment a meagre income by doing a bit of
firewood,” said Mr Frewen. He cited his
local wood supplier, a tenant farmer
who adds to a very low income by selling
wood locally, including fallen trees that
need tidying up.
Yesterday’s announcement by the
government that sales of coal and wet
wood will be phased out between 2021

and 2023 aims to tackle worsening air
quality caused by the popularity of
wood-burning stoves.
The government claims wood burn-
ing stoves and coal fires are the single
largest source of the pollutant PM2.5,
emitting 38 per cent of harmful particu-
late matter in the UK, twice the amount
from industrial combustion and three
times as much as road transport.
These microscopic pollutants have
been linked with a range of medical con-
ditions, including asthma, heart disease
and cancer, because the particles pass
into the lungs and bloodstream.

The government is not banning wood
burning stoves. But sales of all bagged
house coal will be phased out by Febru-
ary 2021 as will sales of wet wood below
two cubic metres, roughly equivalent to
a small van load.
Sales of wet wood in larger volumes
will only be permitted after that date
with advice on how to dry it before
burning. The sale of loose coal will be
banned by February 2023. The rules
apply only in England because legisla-
tion on air pollution is devolved.
The new rules will permit the house-
hold burning of dry wood and of manu-

factured solid fuels, both of which are
more expensive.
The government said manufacturers
of solid fuels would need to know that
they had a “very low sulphur content”
and emitted only a small amount of
smoke, “with all manufactured solid
fuels needing to be labelled as compli-
ant”.
Households that rely on domestic
coal, many of them on low incomes, face
a 30-50 per cent increase in their annual
fuel bills, the Coal Merchants Federation
of Great Britain warned.
The UK’s two biggest producers of
coal, Hargreaves Services and the Banks
Group, which are both based in north-
east England, are frustrated at the gov-
ernment’s decision because, they argue,
kiln-dried and seasoned woods emit as
much as or more PM2.5s than house
coal per unit when used on an open
domestic fire.
Cutting coal use has, they fear,
become a handy headline to give the
appearance of tackling climate change.
“It’s coal being targeted,” said John
Burks, managing director of Hargreaves
production and distribution division.
“Once you have a bad reputation,
that sticks.”

Logging offBan on sale of coal and wet wood threatens rural poor


GE O R G E ST E E R


Leaseholders who are eager to move but
unable to sell or remortgage their flats
because of cladding issues are accepting
bids from cash investors, often for tens
of thousands of pounds less than the
properties’ most recent market value.
Since the Grenfell Tower tragedy, in
which 72 people died in a blaze that was
spread by flammable aluminium com-
posite material — or ACM — cladding,
the government has issued new guide-
lines encouraging building owners to
take “general fire precautions” and


ensure their structures are clad in mate-
rial with limited combustibility.
But the advisory notice, released in
December 2018, has had the unin-
tended consequence of drastically
reducing valuations of flats in buildings
that have yet to be declared safe. Many
of these properties have been valued at
zero by lenders, stopping thousands of
sales and forcing owners who urgently
need to sell to consider cash offers far
below what their homes are worth.
“The people buying are what I’d
call predatory investors,” said Mark
Hayward, chief executive of NAEA
Propertymark, a professional body for
estate agents. “Basically they’ll apply as
big a discount as they can by capitalising
on the stress of the existing occupant.”
Up to 17,000 households still live in

privately owned blocks with similar
cladding to Grenfell Tower. The English
Housing Survey estimates 266,
households live in privately owned flats
in buildings at least 18 metres high, hun-
dreds of which have yet to be checked
for other types of dangerous cladding.
Ben Orford, a sales manager from
Manchester, failed to find a bank willing
to lend against his ACM-clad property,
so sold his two-bedroom flat for cash to
the chief operating officer of a large UK
company receiving £20,000 less than it
had been valued earlier in the year.
Just down the road, in Castlefield, a
three-bedroom apartment in a building
coated in timber cladding is being
advertised on Rightmove to “cash buy-
ers only” for £70,000 less than the origi-
nal asking price. Buildings with wood in

their wall systems were also covered by
the government’s advisory notice.
According to the estate agent market-
ing properties in the same building,
most of the interest comes from “over-
seas cash investors who are willing to
inherit the risk” of having to pay for
future remedial works — assuming the
developer does not pay themselves.
None of the cash investors contacted
responded to a request for comment.
As well as living in potentially unsafe
conditions, occupants of buildings that
have not been given the all-clear face
soaring service charge bills to pay for
24-hour waking watch patrols and — if
their building is found to have combus-
tible cladding different to the ACM
that coated Grenfell Tower — no guaran-
tee that the building owners will foot the

bill for expensive remedial works.
In a survey of leaseholders from 117
housing developments this month by
the Leasehold Knowledge Partnership,
a charity that supports leaseholders,
90 per cent of respondents said the gov-
ernment’s response to the “cladding cri-
sis” had been “no help at all”.
In December, the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors, the Building Soci-
eties Association and UK Finance,
which represents lenders, announced
an industry-wide valuation process to
help people whose homes had yet to be
declared safe so that they could begin to
buy and sell their properties, but a
shortage of qualified fire engineers to
conduct safety assessments means long
waiting lists, while some mortgage pro-
viders are rejecting the form entirely.

Combustible cladding


Predatory investors exploit fire risk


Properties change hands


for tens of thousands less


than recent market value


D E L P H I N E ST R AU S S


Rishi Sunak will be able to point to clear
evidence of a post-election “bounce” in
economic activity when he presents his
first Budget next month, thanks to data
published this week. But a year-on-year
rise in government borrowing under-
lines the challenges facing the chancel-
lor if he wants to open the spending taps.
Both service providers and manufac-
turers reported stronger activity and an
improving outlook for business in Feb-
ruary, according to a survey published
yesterday by IHS Markit, the research
group.
Its flash composite index of activity
across the private sector was unchanged
from the previous month at 53.3, a level
that suggests the economy is likely to
return to growth in the first quarter of
the year, after grinding to a halt ahead of
December’s election.
Businesses responding to the survey
said the drop in political uncertainty
since the election had led to greater will-
ingness to spend among their clients,
helping them raise prices to absorb
higher costs.
Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics
said it was “a clear signal that the econ-
omy has turned a corner”, notwith-
standing signs in the survey that the
coronavirus outbreak was causing dis-
ruption to manufacturers’ supply
chains and weighing on export orders.
The surveys add to the picture
painted this week by official data, which
showed continued growth in employ-
ment, a post-Christmas recovery in
retail sales and a pick-up in inflation
that could reflect strengthening
consumer confidence.
The housing market is also showing
signs of life. In line with recent surveys,
provisional figures published by HM
Revenue & Customs yesterday showed
the number of residential transactions
completed in January had risen 4 per
cent from December, and 5 per cent
from a year earlier.
However, the brightening economic
outlook has not been matched by an
improving picture for public finances.


“With only days to go until the Budget
is finalised, the chancellor will need to
balance the ambition of levelling up
growth across the different parts of the
UK economy and maintaining a sem-
blance of fiscal rectitude,” she added.
City economists are betting that Mr
Sunak will nonetheless find ways to
deliver a fiscal stimulus that will add
momentum to the recent pick-up in
growth, either by raising taxes, or by
changing or bending the fiscal rules.
“There are ways to lift the economy
and remain fiscally prudent,” said Kal-
lum Pickering, economist at Berenberg,
the investment bank, referring to specu-
lation that the chancellor was consider-
ing proposals to curb the system of pen-
sion reliefs for higher earners, or for a
“mansion tax”.
Philip Shaw, economist at Investec,
said: “Our guess is that although there
will not be much space for fiscal gener-
osity, the chancellor will find some.”

C A M I L L A H O D G S O N

Ozone pollution reached potentially
harmful levels in two towns or cities
every day in 2018 on average, accord-
ingtodatafromtheMetOffice.

Analysis by the FT found t here were 965
“moderate pollution days” across 61
urban centres in 2018 — the latest avail-
able data. Almost 85 per cent of these
were caused by the concentration of
ground-level ozone exceeding the limit
recommended by the World Health
Organization.
Aldershot and Cambridge had the
greatest number of these days — 32 each
— followed by Bournemouth, Reading
and Slough, which had 31. The WHO’s
recommended exposure limit is 100
micrograms per cubic metre, on aver-
age, over eight hours
On moderate pollution days, as
defined by the government’s daily air
quality index, the Met Office advises
people with lung and heart problems to
limit their time outdoors.
Ground-level ozone is produced by a
reaction between sunlight, nitrogen
oxide emissions and volatile organic
compounds, such as solvents and chem-
icals found in cleaning products. As a
result, the peak pollution days are in the
summer months.
Simon Birkett, head of Clean Air in
London, said ozone was “the most irri-
tant gas for humans, as it does really
unpleasant things to your lungs”.
The pollutant can cause difficulty
breathing, trigger asthma and cause
inflammation of the eyes, nose and
throat. During the 2003 August “smog”
event, high levels of ozone are estimated
to have caused up to 593 deaths across
the UK, according to a government-
commissioned report.
Ozone also damages crops, and is esti-
mated to reduce annual yields of wheat,
potato and oilseed rape by 5 per cent in
the UK.
The Met Office produces daily air
quality forecasts to warn the public
about short-term pollution incidents.
The forecasts are calculated using a
model that considers weather, emis-
sions and other data, and are checked
hourly against readings from 150 real-
time pollution monitors around the
country.
On days when ozone was not the cause
of the Met’s pollution warning, the
spikes were caused by particulate mat-
ter (PM2.5) — which has been linked
with a host of cardiovascular and respi-
ratory diseases — the FT analysis found.
In the northern hemisphere, the
amount of ground-level ozone has more
than doubled over the past century, as
emissions from transport, industry and
agriculture have increased.
Rising global temperatures as a result
of climate change are making the prob-
lem worse.
Polluted cities such as London do not
necessarily have the highest levels of
ozone: NOx produced by vehicle
exhausts consumes ozone when it is
freshly emitted, but begins to create
ozone as it drifts away. As a result,
ozone levels are often highest in subur-
ban areas. Since ozone can stay in the
atmosphere for several weeks and travel
thousands of miles, it is a difficult pol-
lutant to tackle locally. Last year, the
government said the “most effective
way to tackle ozone is through con-
certed, international action”.

Air pollution


High ozone


levels blight


urban areas


on daily basis


Chancellor.Improved outlook


‘Bounce’ boosts Sunak ahead of Budget


Businesses say end of political


uncertainty has led to a greater


readiness by clients to spend


was still likely to be lower than the
£47.6bn it had predicted in its restated
March forecasts.
But Carl Emmerson, at the Institute
for Fiscal Studies, noted that as recently
as March 2016, the OBR was forecasting
a surplus of more than £10bn for the
current financial year, meaning that
“we have seen a deterioration of around
£55bn in four years”.
The current fiscal rules allow for a big
rise in borrowing to fund new infra-
structure projects. But the latest figures
underline the challenge facing the chan-
cellor if he wants to put more money
into public services and still meet a
manifesto pledge to eliminate the deficit
on day to day spending.
“If the chancellor intends to stick to
the current fiscal targets, he will have
relatively limited room to increase
spending compared to the ambitious
objectives the government has set,” said
Yael Selfin, economist at KPMG.

Official figures published yesterday
showed that the surplus in public bor-
rowing usually seen in January — a key
month for corporate tax receipts and
self-assessment income tax returns —
was £9.8bn, £2.1bn smaller than in the
same month last year and lower than
analysts had expected.
This brought government borrowing
for the first 10 months of the fiscal year
to £44.8bn, £5.8bn more than in the
same period the previous year.
The disappointing outcome for Janu-
ary was partly due to a surge in public
spending, which often fluctuates from
month to month. But while overall tax
receipts grew 3.4 per cent year on year,
there was also a notable drop in receipts
from corporation tax, likely to reflect
the weak business environment in the
closing months of last year.
The Office for Budget Responsibility
said yesterday that government bor-
rowing over the fiscal year as a whole

Stepping out:
Rishi Sunak
leaves Downing
Street earlier
this month. Data
yesterday
showed a year-
on-year rise
in government
borrowing
Neil Hall/EPA-EFE

‘There are
ways to

lift the
economy

and remain
fiscally

prudent’


Government spending
Cumulative public sector
net borrowing (bn)

Sources: ONS; Markit Economics; Refinitiv















Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

-

-

– full year OBR forecast

Business activity shows
post-election bounce
Purchasing managers’ composite
index (above   expansion)













   

Feel the heat:
the measures
aim to tackle
worsening air
quality caused
by the growing
popularity of
wood-burning
stoves
Ian Allenden/Dreamstime

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STOCK MARKETSS&P 500 Mar 312367.102368.06 -0.04prev %chgWorldMarkets
Nasdaq CompositeFTSEurorst 300FTSE 100Euro Stoxx 50Dow Jones Ind7322.9220689.64 20728.49 -0.191503.035918.693495.595914.347369.52 -0.633481.581500.720.400.150.
FTSE All-ShareCAC 40Xetra DaxNikkeiHang Seng18909.26 19063.22 -0.813990.0024111.59 24301.09 -0.7812312.87 12256.43 0.465122.515089.644011.01 -0.520.
FTSE All World $297.38298.11 -0.

$ per ££ per €$ per €CURRENCIES1.070Mar 311.2510.8551.0741.249prev0.
¥ per $¥ per £SFr per €€ indexCOMMODITIES111.430 111.295139.338 139.03588.767 89.0461.0711.069$ index€ per $£ index¥ per €£ per $€ per £SFr per £119.180 119.476104.536 104.63677.226 76.705Mar 310.8000.9351.1691.252prev0.9321.1641.2440.
Oil Brent $Gold $Oil WTI $Mar 3150.461244.8553.351248.80prev53.1350.350.220.41%chg-0.

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Jpn Gov 10 yrUS Gov 30 yrGer Gov 2 yrFed Funds E 0.6699.27price100.36102.57-0.753.04prev0.070.660.010.00chg0.000.
US 3m BillsEuro Libor 3mUK 3mPrices are latest for editionData provided by Morningstar-0.360.340.78-0.360.340.780.000.000.

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THE RISE OF ECO-GLAM
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FEBRUARY 22 2020 Section:World Time: 21/2/2020 - 19: 30 User: john.conlon Page Name: UKNEWS1, Part,Page,Edition: LON, 2 , 1

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