Financial Times Weekend 22-23Feb2020

8 ★ FTWeekend 22 February/23 February 2020

W

hen historians look

back at the end of the

2 1st century’s second

decade, they will notice

something remarkable.

After 30 years of feeble efforts to stem

greenhousegases, people around the

world havebeen grippedbytheidea

that more must urgentlybedone.A

once unthinkable idea is fast becoming

mainstream: that emissions should be

cut to net zero as soon as possible.

The question is: how? What should

politicians dofirst? Who should payfor

it? Can today’s voters be cajoled into

paying to protect strangers yet to be

born? And what is the best way to over-

come the inevitable resistance to the

sweeping reforms that will be required?

Until now, the publishing world has

often seemed better at serving up dire

warnings than hard-edged solutions.

Last year’s big books on climate change

includedThe Uninhabitable Earth,David

Wallace-Wells’sremorseless accountof

looming climate mayhem, andLosing

Earth, Nathaniel Rich’s melancholy

reminder of the missed opportunities to

avert calamity.

However, this yearhasbeen notable

for a new crop of works on how we

should deal with the problem, brim-

ming withemissions-cutting advice that

ranges from the geopolitical to the prac-

tical and mystical.

Byfar the most provocative isClimate

Change and the Nation Statebyinterna-

tional relations scholar Anatol Lieven,a

formerforeign correspondentfor the FT

and other news organisations. He begins

by arguing that thefundamental obsta-

cle to effective climate action is nota

lack of technology or money but the

dearth ofmotivation and mobilisation

ofelites around the world. Too many

countries, he argues, are lumbered with

“residual elites”, ruling groups shaped

by past conflicts who are unable to

adapt to the great challenge of climate

change. This explains why western

security eliteshave embracedtheidea

ofanewcoldwarwithChinaandRussia

when infact, writes Lieven,“the long-

term interests ofthe world’s great pow-

ers are far more threatened by climate

change than they are by each other.”

This is a problembecause tackling the

climate threatin westerndemocracies

will require radical programmes such as

a“green new deal”, a packageofreforms

aimed atfundamentally reorientating

economies andmodelled onFranklinD

Roosevelt’s 19 30sNewDeal.Politicians

worldwidehavebegun to champion this

idea,but they willneedrepeatedelect-

ion victories andenoughmass support

to resist notjust oilcompanies andtheir

bankersbut theingrainedmaterialism

ofcontemporary culture.

Theunlikely saviour Lieven proposes

is what he calls the most powerful

source of collective effortin modern his-

tory: nationalism. DonaldTrump in the

US and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro may have

deployednationalidentity as a weapon

against climate actionbut Lieven argues

convincinglythat there is no inevitable

linkbetweennationalismandclimate

denialism.Israel’swaterconservation

policies showhow nationalist sensibili-

ties canspur effectivegreen policies. So

does China’sgreen energy supremacy.

SohowwouldLieven’s climatenation-

alism work? First,hewouldenlist a criti-

calforce— the military — in thefight to

cut emissions,especially given the

appealthat generalsandsoldiershave

forvotersmosthostiletoclimate action.

This is lessfanciful than it may sound.

The Pentagonidentifiedclimate change

as a threat to US interests years ago, as

did the British military.

But other elements ofthe Lieven

vision are more difficult to imagine—

not least the rethink on migration that

hewould like to see among green pro-

gressives and conservative climate scep-

tics. He makes a cogent case that the

worldfaces a perfect storm ofrising glo-

bal temperatures spurring mass migra-

tion, just as artificial intelligence causes

job losses on a colossal scale.

The extent ofmigration is hard to cal-

culate but, as he reminds us, a wave of

political destabilisation hit Europe after

the arrival ofabout 1m Syrian refugees

in 2015. By some estimates, there could

be as many as 400m international

migrants by 2050, partly because ofcli-

mate change. Yet in countries suchas

Australia,he points to rightwingpoliti-

cians whoobsess about Asian migration

while resistingeffective action to tackle

climate threats that arebound to fuel

further migration. The same incoher-

ence is evident amongEurope’s anti-

migration populists.

Atthe same time, Lieven criticises the

Europeangreen parties that champion

openborders andoppose nuclear

energy, even thoughmass migration

strengthens the hand ofparties opposed

to climate action andeven though

atomic power is a proven alternative to

fossilfuels. This is an example ofwhat

he calls“residual counter-elites”:green

attitudes to migration wereformed on

the leftofthe political spectrum before

mass migration to Europe existed,while

their position on nuclear energy is

derivedfrom cold war campaigns

against nuclear weapons.

This analysis is original and thought-

provoking — ifa bit otherworldly. Those

seeking more immediate andpractical

ideas shouldreadTheCitizen’sGuide to

Climate Successby Mark Jaccard, a Cana-

dian economist andacademic with

years of real-world experience.

Arefreshingly peppy writer, he is una-

fraid to bolster his case with jokes about

economists orstories ofhis students’re-

search into the carbon intensity ofone’s

sex life.His book’schiefaim issummed

up by its subtitle:“overcomingmyths

that hinder progress”. The most inter-

estingofthese are not thefamiliarfalla-

cies peddledbyclimate scepticsbut the

ideas that Jaccardsays are spreadin

errorby peoplegenuinely concerned

aboutglobalwarming.

Thisincludes thenotionthatweneed

aresearch and development“moon-

shot”to decarbonise the energy system.

Wehave allthetechnologyweneed,he

says, andthinkingotherwisebuoys pro-

crastination. What welackare policies

that price or regulate emissions.

Yet one especiallyprevalent mythhe

demolishes is theidea that carbon pric-

ing,orapplyinga cost to carbondioxide

pollution, is paramount. TheEUand

Californiahavewell-established carbon

markets that seekto curbemissionsby

makingthem more costly.

However, Jaccard’s experience help-

ingtodesigna pioneeringcarbon taxin

British Columbiain 2008 showed that

suchschemes canhaveapoliticalcost.

That tax was introduced by a popular

right-of-centre premier, Gordon Camp-

bell, whose 20-point poll leadcollapsed

after the measure was subjected to a vir-

ulent axe-the-tax campaign andwhose

successor froze the tax rate. The experi-

ence cementedJaccard’s view that no

matter how well-designed andfair a car-

bon pricing measure may be, opponents

can easily convince a significant share of

voters that it will causefinancial pain.

Hehas alot oftimeformoreelectoral-

ly acceptable“flex regs”:flexible regula-

tions suchas vehicle emission standards

or requirements for electricity provid-

ers toget a minimum percentageof

powerfrom renewables. Economists

rightlyargue these measures areless

cost-effective than carbon pricing. But,

as Jaccardsays, theyhave abetter sur-

vivalrate. “We shouldn’t tellclimate-

sincere politicians to stickan electoral

bullseye on their backs”without telling

them about policy alternatives. It might

be smarter to start offwithflexible regu-

lations and shift to carbon pricinglater.

Regulation is central to Jaccard’s case

against another powerful climate myth:

theidea that we needto changeour

behaviour. No one changedtheirbehav-

iour to stop acid rain, smogor the

destruction of the ozone layer, he says.

Insteadwe changedtechnologies with

compulsory policies and regulations.

Jaccardis persuasive. Yet thebest-

known author in this new batch of

books on climate change, former UN cli-

mate chiefChristiana Figueres, would

haveuschange not just ourbehaviour

but our consciousness. “Our current cri-

sis requires a total shift in our thinking,”

writes Figueres, an architect of the 2015

Parisagreement.

InThe Future We Choose,co-authored

with Tom Rivett-Carnac, her chief polit-

icaladviserat theUNandaformerBud-

dhist monk, Figueres argues that sur-

viving theclimate crisis requires three

mindsets: stubborn optimism, “endless

abundance”and“radical regeneration”.

It includes a more earthly 10-point plan

for action (“engage in politics”; “invest

in clean energy”)and some memorable

insights into the eventsleading up to the

Paris deal, like the bomb scare that

threatened to derail the negotiations.

Thosedetails may prove the most com-

pelling for readers, and indeed for many

ofthose mentioned in the book’s exten-

sive list ofacknowledgments(which

includes this reviewer).

For a more granular andfocused

guide to a zero-carbonfuture, there is

What WeNeedToDoNowby green energy

expert Chris Goodall. This book is

aimedprimarilyatreaders in Britain,

which last year became thefirst G7

country to put a net zero emissions tar-

get into law. Yet many ofits arguments

apply elsewhere, including the case that

Goodall makesfor putting hydrogen

and renewables at the centre ofthe UK’s

energy system.

He envisions a 20-fold increase in

generationfrom renewablesthat would

produce enough spare electricityto

make hydrogen, which in turn could

providepowerwhen there is not enough

wind or sun, and also replace fossil fuel

gasinheating andtransport.

Goodall admits that even afew years

ago, such a scheme would have seemed

absurd because renewables were so

muchdearer. Withan £800bn price tag

for his 20-fold renewables splurge,

albeit spread over two decades, his plan

willinevitablyhithurdles. Yethe rightly

says the investment would also deliver

sizeablereturns—notleast anendtothe

UK’sannual£ 4 5bnfossil fuelbill.

And as he points out, this idea ofa

renewables-plus-hydrogen energy sys-

tem is alreadybeingpursued.Dutch

companies are pushingtobuildman-

madeislandsintheNorth Sea to collect

windpower that could be routedto sur-

roundingcountries, storingspare elec-

tricity ashydrogen. Anothergroup is

planningahuge windandsolar project

in north-west Australia that again

wouldcreategreenhydrogen that could

be exportedto neighbouringcountries.

People will disagree about many of

Goodall’sprescriptions,as wellas those

fromtheotherauthorsmentionedhere.

Thewriters themselves arenotin

accord. Yet together they outline a path

towards a safer climate. More impor-

tantly, they advance an overduedebate

that ignoresfoolish questions about

whether climate changeisrealor caused

byhumans or ahoax andconcentrates

insteadon thebest way to stop it.

Pilita ClarkisanFTcolumnist

Policies need to be

electorally acceptable —

‘We shouldn’t tell

climate-sincere politicians

to stick an electoral

bullseye on their backs’

ClimateChange

andtheNationState:

TheRealistCase

byAnatolLieven

Allen Lane £20, 240 pages

TheCitizen’sGuide

toClimateSuccess:

OvercomingMyths

thatHinderProgress

byMarkJaccard

Cambridge University Press £14.99

296 pages

TheFutureWeChoose:

SurvivingtheClimate

Crisis

byChristianaFigueresandTom

Rivett-Carnac

Knopf $23/Manilla Press £12.99

219 pages

WhatWeNeedtoDoNow

ForAZeroCarbonFuture

byChrisGoodall

Profile £9.99, 215 pages

T

heotherdayImetawoman

fromLithuania. Sheknew

about amber. Everyone at

home, she said, owned

pieces ofthis strange sub-

stance thathad oozed fromScandina-

vian conifers more than 40m years ago

and settled undertheBaltic Sea at the

end ofthe last Ice Age. Everyone, she

added, excepther mother, who could

notwearit becauseitburnther.

CJSchüler wouldnotbe surprised.

Amber’s Greek name,elektron, points to

theelectromagnetic qualitiesbywhich

thisfossilised tree resin attracts dust,

seeds,fibres and even tiny creatures to

itself. Withothersourcesasdistantas

the Dominican Republic andMyanmar,

amberhaslongbeen thoughttohave

warming, cosmetic,healingandother

therapeutic properties. Sometimes sof-

tenedwithwarmhoney andcognac, and

formed into every decorative object

imaginable, it has been highly prizedfor

millennia:itwas foundintheruinsof

Troy and even in the tomb ofTutankha-

mun. Washedup alongcoldnorthern

shores, it was tradedacross Europe as

far as the Mediterranean, tracinga path

olderthanthe SilkRoad acrossAsiaand

every bit asfascinating.

Over the course ofa year, Schüler,a

travel writer,followed the amber trail,

generallybybus or train; occasionally,

apologetically,byhiredcar; sometimes

walking, sometimeslingering.Along

the way hefoundold citadels andchar-

acters,facts and stories, all the while

seekingout the best displays ofamber in

museums,junk shops and,from time to

time, in palaces. Theresult,Alongthe

Amber Route, is a very European story of

trade and adventure, ofconquest and

liberation, ofsufferingand ofcourage.

In the Catherine Palace at Tsarskoye

Selo, theformer imperial residencejust

outside St Petersburg, he headsfor the

famous Amber Room. It is not the origi-

nal,whichwas commissionedby Fred-

erick III ofPrussia in 1696,given to Peter

the Great, packedup in increasingly

nightmarishflat-packjigsaws and

movedfrom palace to palace until 1942.

Then,lootedbythe Nazis, itdisap-

peared.Peoplehavebeen claimingto

Alongthe

AmberRoute:

StPetersburg

toVenice

byCJSchüler

Sandstone £16.99

344 pages

Hermann Göringtookit over ashis

huntinglodge. Notfar away lies pretty

Yantarnybeach,whichbecamehome to

the Amber Beach musicfestival. Here,

in January 1945, 4,000 inmates ofStut-

thofconcentration camp were marched

under machine-gunfire into the icy sea.

Fifteenof themsurvived.

Schüler’sownfamily were caught up

in that war, hisfatherforced to emigrate

and two ofhisgreat-grandparents dying

in the camps. Some oftheir homes, or

graves,lie alongthis route, whichwinds

through lost empires andrenamed

countrieswhose boundarieswere

repeatedly redrawnfor centuries.

Yet in 2015, whenhemadethejour-

ney,he couldcross virtually everybor-

der without even producinghis pass-

port. Sadly, ashe reachedVenice, a new

generation ofrefugees were beginning

tofleefrom persecution and war,fences

werebeingerectedandan uglynew

nationalism was beginningto surface.

History never stands still.

Onagold-tintedtrailofadventureandconquest

Europe’sownanswertothe

SilkRoadisevokedinthis

journeytracingthetradein

amber,writesSueGaisford

Howtohealtheplanet

Essay| After countless tales of the looming horrors of climate change,PilitaClarkwelcomes

a new crop of books that offer solutions to one of the 21st century’s most pressing dilemmas

Anarrayofsolarpanels

nearLasVegas—but

willgreenelectricity

generationbeenoughto

makeadifference?

Plainpicture

A A S t b S 3

have foundbits ofiteversince.Themir-

rored replica, backed withgoldfoil, is

too shiny-newfor Schüler’s taste: hefelt

asifhe’d landed in a pot ofmarmalade.

From St Petersburg,he set out via Fin-

landto Estonia, Latvia andLithuania,

beachcombingfor the nuggets ofamber

that still drift ashore, andfinding

strangeandmarvellous places. The

most extraordinary is the Curonian

Spit, a narrow sandbar 100kmlong,

dividingalagoonfrom the open sea, and

providinga habitatfor innumerable

rarebirdsandbeasts. Entranced,he

drove the length ofit, lucky man: many

ofhis readers will longto do the same.

Yet this timely and powerful book is

more than an enticingtravelogue or a

paean to amber,for even on the Cu-

ronian Spit there is evidence ofthe cruel

ironies ofhistory. In 1929 the novelist

ThomasMann wontheNobelPrizeand

builtahouse there,lovingthe primitive,

elemental nature ofthe place: when

Mann wasforced tofleefrom the Nazis,

Aninsectentombedin

30m-year-oldamber

Getty Images