◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek May 18, 202034
“We routinely went through drills for what to do in
case of terrorist or nuclear attacks, but I honestly
never anticipated a pandemic situation like the one
the White House is facing now.”
Markets would almost certainly drop on news of
a presidential diagnosis, says Ian Bremmer, presi-
dent of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk consult-
ing firm. But he expects traders would take comfort
from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s recov-
ery from his recent bout of Covid-19. Although
Johnson deputized Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab
to handle some duties when he entered intensive
care on April 7, Johnson never formally transferred
power. The prime minister has now returned to
work and resumed his full slate of duties.
“If Trump were to get it and is quarantined in
the residence, but stays in charge of the govern-
ment and is tweeting like crazy, I think there’d be
de minimis market impact,” says Bremmer.
Even if Trump became too ill for vigorous tweet-
ing, there’s a process that past presidents have
employed to temporarily relinquish power. The
Constitution’s 25th Amendment allows the pres-
ident to hand over control to the vice president
and then reclaim it as soon as he declares himself
able. George W. Bush did this twice during his pres-
idency, while undergoing medical procedures, and
Ronald Reagan once, after he was shot. If Trump
were stricken suddenly or had to be sedated for
intubation, the 25th Amendment also allows the
vice president and cabinet to execute the transfer
of presidential power.
Inthegrim—andstatisticallyunlikely—casethat
oneisneeded,a roadmapalsoexistsforwhat
wouldhappenif thepresidentandvicepresident
werebothtopassaway.“Inthatevent,thelineof
successionis clear,”saysIlyaSomin,a lawprofes-
soratGeorgeMasonUniversity.“HouseSpeaker
NancyPelosiwouldtakeover.”
Butconstitutionalexpertswarnthatchaoscould
ensueif bothTrumpandPenceweretobecome
incapacitatedbyCovid-19,becausethelawprovides
littleclarityonresolvingsucha scenario.
“Itwouldbea realshitshowthatcouldresult
ina full-scaleconstitutionalmeltdown,”saysBrian
Kalt,a lawprofessoratMichiganStateUniversity
andtheauthorofUnable:TheLaw,Politics,and
LimitsofSection4 oftheTwenty-FifthAmendment.
“Itwouldimmediatelygotocourt,andthey’dhave
todeciderealquickwhattodo.Becausenotknow-
ingwhothepresidentis evenfora coupleofhours
couldbeextremelyperilousforthecountry.”
If Trump and Pence wereboth unable to
fulfill theirduties, neither could invoke the
25thAmendment. The Constitution instructs“Not knowing
who the
president
is even for
a couple
of hours could
be extremely
perilous for
the country”The news that President Trump’s valet and Vice
President Pence’s press secretary had both con-
tracted Covid-19 sent a scare through the White
House. While officials said both leaders subse-
quently tested negative, the episode raised a wor-
risome possibility: What happens if Trump or
Pence is stricken—or, worse, if both become ill at
the same time?
The result could be anything from a tempo-
rary disruption to a full-blown constitutional crisis
withcompetingclaimsonthepresidency.What’s
critical,expertssay,isthattheidentityofthe
commander-in-chief be clear in any situation. At
least one scenario could arise where it wouldn’t be.
The degree of economic and geopolitical fall-
out would depend heavily on the severity of the
illness, and especially on whether Trump him-
self became incapacitated, say current and former
White House officials and outside experts. “There’s
a protocol for everything,” says David Axelrod, for-
mer senior White House adviser to Barack Obama.● There’s precedent for a temporary handoff of
power but also a risk of a succession disputeTHE BOTTOM LINE Added economic misery from the crash in oil
prices could cost President Trump votes in Texas, while Joe Biden is
in a bind appealing to energy workers in Pennsylvania, a swing state.crisis even,” says Chris Duncan, an analyst at San
Diego-based Brandes Investment Partners, which
manages $16.6 billion, some of that in oil and gas.
Yet the idea of the U.S. government swoop-
ing in to help indebted oil producers is unpopu-
lar with voters—and even the industry is divided
over relief. American Petroleum Institute
President Mike Sommers has argued against spe-
cial aid he says could pin a target on the industry.
“We don’t want an oil-and-gas-specific program
set up by government or Congress,” he says.
�Gregory Korte, with Jennifer Dlouhy, Kevin Crowley,
David Wethe, Ari Natter, and Steve MatthewsWhat If the
Potus Tests
Positive?