◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek May 18, 202035BRENDAN
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moneythatwillrevivea U.S.economydevastated
bythepandemic.Hisreelectionmaydependonit.
Infact,morethaneconomic,geopolitical,or
constitutionalrisk,thesurestconsequenceofan
OvalOfficecoronavirusdiagnosis—ora double
diagnosis—isthatit wouldgreatlyincreaseelec-
toralrisktoTrumpbysmotheringthealreadylim-
itedpublicconfidenceinhisefforttoreopentheeconomy.Evenasmanystatestaketentativesteps
toliftvirus-relatedrestrictionsonbusinessesand
publicactivities,a May7 PewResearchCenterpoll
foundthata largemajorityofAmericans(68%)
saytheirgreatestconcernis reopeningtheecon-
omytooquickly.Only31%worryaboutnotlifting
restrictionsquicklyenough.
WiththevirusnowconfirmedintheWestWing,
Trumpata pressconferenceonMay11 appeared
tobemorewillingtotakeprecautions,perhaps
awarethata presidentialinfectioncoulddecimate
hisreelectionhopes.
Trumpclaimedhe’dhadlittlerecentcontact
withPence,who’sreturnedtotheWhiteHouse
campus,butindicatedthathemighttakeaddi-
tionalstepstodistancehimselffromhisvicepresi-
dent.“Hecomesintocontactwitha lotofpeople,”
Trumptoldreporters.“It’ssomethingprobably
duringthisquarantineperiod,we’llprobablytalk
about.I havenotseenhimsincethen.”Headded,
“Wecantalkonthephone.”
Trumpalsosaid heissuedanorderforall
WhiteHousestafferstobeginwearingmasksto
helpstopthespreadofthevirusinsidetheWest
Wing.Butthisstepped-uphealthmeasurehasits
limitations:It doesn’tapplytothepresident,who
stilldoesn’tintendtoweara mask.�JoshuaGreen
andJenniferJacobsTHE BOTTOM LINE A presidential diagnosis of Covid-19 would
rattle markets, but the likeliest consequence would be a hit to
public confidence in reopening—and to Trump’s reelection odds.Congress to legislate a line of succession, which
was most recently updated in the Presidential
Succession Act of 1947—the law that puts the
speaker of the House of Representatives next in
line for the presidency. The trouble, Kalt says, is
that the Constitution doesn’t offer a procedure
for determining a president’s “inability” to per-
form, giving rise to the possibility of a dispute in
which Pelosi, a Democrat, declared herself acting
president even as Trump and Pence (or their law-
yers) declared themselves fit to serve.
A succession dispute is hardly inconceivable.
During Watergate, in the eight weeks between
Spiro Agnew’s resignation and Gerald Ford’s con-
firmation, the vice presidency was vacant, putting
Democrat House Speaker Carl Albert next in line
for the White House. Albert vowed that if he were
to ascend to the presidency, he would promptly
appoint a Republican vice president and resign,
rather than let his party appear to usurp power.
“That’s hardly a scenario you could count on
today,” says Kalt, who’s urged Congress to rewrite
thesuccessionlawtoputthesecretaryofstate
(inTrump’scase,MikePompeo)thirdinlinefor
thepresidency.
The White House says there’s no reason for
alarm. A spokeswoman says the federal govern-
ment always has plans for continuity of opera-
tions but declines to outline what the plan would be
if Trump and Pence were unable to carry out their
duties. Both are tested daily for the coronavirus.
Some White House officials have grown con-
cerned that Trump, Pence, and their staffs have
routinely intermingled in recent weeks, many of
them without wearing a mask, thereby increasing
the chances that both principals could get infected.
“Pence should largely stay out of the White House
as [Dick] Cheney did after 9/11,” says one former
Trump official. As of May 12, he was not (though
he was staying away from the president). After his
press secretary, Katie Miller, tested positive on
May 8, Pence skipped a weekend meeting between
Trump and military leaders at the White House but
returned to work the following Monday.
By contrast, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of
the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases, and Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, both
self-isolated after coming into contact with a person
at the White House who tested positive.
Throughout the crisis, Trump has resisted
many of the precautions urged by public-health
officials. Advisers say he is determined to project
an air of normalcy in hopes that this will persuade
Americans to leave their homes and begin spending▲ Trump during a tour
of a factory that makes
masks on May 5