The Economist - USA (2020-05-16)

10 Leaders The EconomistMay 16th 2020

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E

verythinghappensfasterina crisis.Facedwithcovid-19,

vaccine-makersarecuttingasmanycornersastheysafely

can.Anti-viraldrugsarebeingrushedintoclinicaltrials.Even

so,itwillbemonthsuntilanythingisavailable.With297,

peoplerecordeddead,thewaitisagonising.Butcautioniscru-

cial.Medicine’shistoryis fullofpromisingtreatments that,

whentested,turnedoutnottoworkoreventocauseharm.

Manygovernmentshopesalvationcancomesooner,with

contact-tracingappsonsmartphones—evenasa rowbrewsover

Apple’sandGoogle’sgriponthetechnology.Theseappscanbe

usedtoautomatethedifficultprocessoftrackingdownpeople

whohavebeenincontactwiththosediagnosedwithcovid-19,

whichis vital for keepingtabs onthe virus.

CountriesfromBahrainandBulgariatoIndone-

siaandIcelandhavedevelopedsuchapps.

Theyareanattractiveidea.Yetcontact-trac-

ingappsarealsoanuntestedmedicalinvention

thatwillbeintroducedwithoutthesortofsafe-

guardsthatnewdrugsaresubjectedto.Inaccu-

rate informationcan misleadhealthofficials

andcitizensinwaysthatcanbeasharmfulas

anyfaileddrug.Governmentsshouldproceedwithcare.

Coverageisonecomplication.Epidemiologistsreckonthat

appsmightbeusefulif around60%ofpeopleusethem.Yeteven

inEurope,whereadoptionishighest,only76%ofpeoplehave

mobile-internetsubscriptions.Thatnumberisloweramongthe

elderly,themostvulnerabletocovid-19.A recentsurveysuggest-

edlessthanhalfofAmericanswouldusea contact-tracingapp.

Accuracyisanissue,too.Suchappsaredesignedtolistenout

fornearbymobilephones,registeringa contactif anotherdevice

comescloseenough.Yetthestrengthoftheradiosignalsusedto

dothisisaffectedbyallsortsofthingsbesidesdistance.Human

bodiesimpedetransmission,forinstance,meaninga phoneina

pocketwillbehavedifferentlyfromoneina hand.

Thatcouldmakeithardtocalibratethesystem—anda mis-

takewouldhaveconsequences.Toosensitive,andyouriska del-

ugeof“falsepositives”:contactsdeemedcloseandsignificant

thatwereactuallydistantandirrelevant.Tooforgiving,andgen-

uinecasesofviraltransmissionwillgoundetected.

Moreover,theappsthemselvesmightchangebehaviour.An

over-reassuringappcouldspurpeopletogooutbeforeit issafe.

Privacymustbeweighedagainsttransparency,formedicalrea-

sonsaswellasforcivilliberty.SouthKoreapublishesdetailed

summariesofcasesuncoveredbyitscontact-tracers.Arecent

jumpincaseswaslinkedtoa manwhovisitedgaynightclubs.

Theresultingstreamofhomophobicinvective

coulddeterothersfromco-operatingwiththe

authorities,electronicallyorotherwise.

Theeffortsofsomegovernments,including

thoseofBritain,FranceandGermany,havebeen

complicatedbyAppleandGoogle,whichbe-

tweenthemholdswayoveralmosteverysmart-

phoneontheplanet.Thefirmshavemadepri-

vacy a priority, deeming that users will be

anonymousandinformationstoredmostlyondevicesrather

thanuploadedtocentralrepositories.Thathasinfuriatedmany

officials.Centralisationoffersadvantages,theysay.Andinany

case,whyshouldcodersinSiliconValleyoverruledecisions

madebymedicalexpertsandelectedofficials?

Asa rule,governmentsarerighttoworryabouttheunac-

countablepowerofthetechgiants.Inthiscase,though,Google’s

andApple’scautiousapproachissensible.Ina pandemic,ex-

perimentingwithnovelpublic-healthresponsessuchasmass

surveillanceshouldbedonecarefully,incaseitsubsequently

turnsouttohavenastyside-effects.Withhigh-techsoftware,

cautionisasvaluableasit iswithpillsandpotions. 7

First, do no harm

Mobile-internetsubscribers

2019,%ofpopulation

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Mid.East& N.Africa

AsiaPacific

China

NorthAmerica

Europe

0 80604020

Governments pinning their hopes on contact-tracing apps should tread carefully

Escaping the lockdown

N

ever before have governments erected safety-nets as gen-

erous as those they have created during the pandemic. In

Britain 7.5m furloughed workers’ wages are being paid in large

part by the state, which is spending more on them than it is on

health care. In France the government is topping up the majority

of private-sector workers’ incomes after their hours were cut.

America has increased unemployment benefits by $600 per per-

son per week, almost trebling the average payout. Since March a

staggering 34m or so claims for this kind of support have been

made (see United States section). Germany and Japan have

boosted their existing subsidy schemes for furloughed or par-

tially furloughed workers.

These policies have been indispensable. Replacing lost in-

comes has averted suffering, prevented economies from falling

apart and ensured public support for social-distancing mea-

sures. Yet governments need to prepare an exit strategy not just

from lockdowns, but also from their emergency policies (see Eu-

rope section). They cannot replace private incomes indefinitely.

If today’s transfers are maintained for too long, they will be ruin-

ously expensive and prevent labour markets from adapting to

the new way of life that emerges from the pandemic.

Many of today’s schemes reflect the idea that economies need

to be placed in deep freeze in order to be revived intact once the

crisis subsides. Yet it seems increasingly likely that economies

will instead be permanently changed. Consumers may emerge

from lockdown with new habits and fears about mixing, spend-

Reopen and shut

Freezing labour markets for too long will cost too much and impede the recovery

Unemployment