The Economist - USA (2020-05-16)

26 The Americas The EconomistMay 16th 2020

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one person from each household is al-

lowed out once a week, between 7am and

noon. Some measures seem more political

than protective. The decree establishing

the lockdown, published on March 25th,

criminalises “individuals who incite non-

compliance” and “misinform or cause un-

certainty to the population”. This has been

used to prosecute dozens of “digital war-

riors”. Mauricio Jara, for example, down-

played the threat of the virus and called the

government “dictatorial” on WhatsApp

groups such as “Evo the Best”. He was

charged with sedition and endangering

public health, and jailed. On May 10th the

government toughened the decree. Now

information of “any form, whether writ-

ten, printed or artistic”, that undermines

the quarantine can lead to charges.

Such behaviour raises fears that Ms

Áñez is replacing Mr Morales’s authoritar-

ian rule with her own conservative version.

“We need evidence that once the most criti-

cal stage of the pandemic is over, the gov-

ernment’s intention is to finish its man-

date as soon as possible,” says Carlos Mesa,

a centrist candidate for president. On April

30th the legislature, which is controlled by

mas, passed a law setting a deadline of Au-

gust 2nd for elections. (The electoral tribu-

nal had proposed a date between June 7th

and September 6th.) Lawmakers from Ms

Áñez’s party challenged the law in the con-

stitutional court when the legislature over-

turned her veto. 

This, plus allegations of corruption in

the defence ministry and the state oil and

gas firm, has alienated critics of Mr Mo-

rales who had initially supported her. “Dur-

ing the honeymoon, we all looked the other

way,” admits Raúl Peñaranda, a journalist.

Forty-eight journalists issued a statement

calling Mr Jara’s arrest illegal. Even Ms

Áñez’s running-mate, Samuel Doria Medi-

na, does not defend the part of the decree

on which it was based. “Frankly, it was a

mistake, absurd,” he says. “In a democracy

you don’t do that kind of thing.” He blames

the justice ministry, not Ms Áñez.

In parts of Bolivia, suspicion of her

along with the deprivation caused by the

lockdown are causing new outbreaks of vi-

olence. On April 30th protesters in El Alto, a

poor neighbour of La Paz, threw stones at

buses carrying medical workers. They were

demanding new elections and an end to

the lockdown. On May 11th security forces

tear-gassed protesters in Cochabamba who

were blocking roads and burning tyres. “If

there’s no bread for the poor, there’s no

peace for the rich,” one sign read.

mashopes to profit from such senti-

ments. It splintered after Mr Morales fled

the country. Under his leadership from ex-

ile in Argentina it has lately become more

united and strident. Luis Arce (no relation

to Patricia), the party’s presidential candi-

date, is his pick. Some maspoliticians have

suggestedthatthepandemicisaninven-

tionoftheright.MrDoriaMedinaaccuses

thepartyofexploitingprivation.

Still,themalcontentsarea minority.In

a pollbyIpsosconductedonMay2nd-7th,

69%ofrespondentsapprovedofMsÁñez’s

handlingof thepandemic. The govern-

menthasgivengrantstofamiliesandin-

formalworkersworthupto 500 bolivianos

($73)perperson,whichmayhelpexplain

thatsupport.Boliviansadheretothelock-

downmorerigorouslythancitizensofany

otherLatinAmericancountry,accordingto

datafromGoogleAnalytics.Two-thirdsdo

notwantelectionstotakeplacewithinthe

next 90 days.A surveybyCiesmoriinApril

foundthatMsÁñezledtheeightpresiden-

tialcandidates,with26%ofvotersplan-

ningtobackher.MrArcewasjustbehindat

24%.Theymayfaceeachotherina run-off.

SalvadorRomero,therespected presi-

dentoftheelectoraltribunal,planstohold

theelectionbythelegislature’sAugust2nd

deadline, assuming the constitutional

courtdoesnotoverturnit.Boliviacannot

followtheexampleofrichercountriesthat

havespreadoutvotingoverseveraldaysor

shiftedtomail-inballots,saysMrRomero.

Thatwouldbea logisticalnightmare.The

commissionplanstotrainpollworkersin

smallgroups.Thevoteitselfwilltakeplace

asusual,probablywithhandsanitisersand

facemasks.Votingismandatory,butmany

Boliviansmaystayhomeunlesstheythink

thepandemicisundercontrol.Thatmay

prompttheloserstochallengethelegiti-

macyoftheresults.Boliviaisstilla long

wayfroma politicalcure. 7

N

icolás maduro, Venezuela’s dictator,

always welcomes a distraction from

the calamity of his rule. Early this month

his enemies provided a good one. Two

boats carrying a score of mercenaries at-

tempted to land near Caracas, the capital.

In a skirmish on May 3rd, Venezuelan

forces killed eight raiders. The next day,

two American former soldiers, apparently

suffering from seasickness, were among

the invaders captured from a skiff as it

drifted 20km (12 miles) west of the earlier

incursion. During their interrogations, lat-

er broadcast on state television, they con-

fessed to taking part in a plot to kidnap Mr

Maduro and fly him to the United States.

Some Venezuelans, used to Mr Madu-

ro’s diversionary tactics, refused to believe

thestory.“Itcannotpossibly be real,” said

Edgar, a van driver in Caracas. But it seems

the plot was real, and that the plotters at

least initially had the backing of the leaders

of the opposition.

In September 2019 a team representing

Juan Guaidó, the head of the National As-

sembly, who is recognised by most West-

ern democracies as Venezuela’s interim

president, met in Miami to consider plans

to remove Mr Maduro by force. Juan Ren-

dón, a political consultant who led the

delegation, later said that Mr Guaidó had

made it clear that he should explore “all op-

tions”. The team heard a pitch from Jordan

Goudreau, an American special-forces vet-

eran who is boss of Silvercorp, a previously

obscure Florida-based security outfit. Its

website portrays him boxing bare-chested.

His private email address, now disabled,

included the number 007. He proposed as-

sembling several hundred fighters, mostly

deserters from the Venezuelan army, to nab

Mr Maduro and Diosdado Cabello, his

number two. His price: $212,900,000.

Apparently impressed, the delegation

signed a contract in October. The docu-

ment, which Mr Rendón later described as

“exploratory”, is detailed and delusional.

The “service provider” would receive

monthly instalments averaging $14.8m for

a 495-day mission. After “project comple-

tion” its (undisclosed) financial backers

would have “preferred-vendor” status with

the government of a liberated Venezuela.

Silvercorp would take 14% of the value of

any art, cash and gold it seized.

Mr Goudreau says Mr Guaidó approved

the plan, dubbed Operation Gideon. He has

given the media a copy of a contract with

Mr Guaidó’s signature. Mr Guaidó has de-

nied signing it. The opposition says it end-

ed the contract in November, when Mr

A farcical attempt to remove Nicolás

Maduro has strengthened him

Venezuela

Bay of piglets

A propaganda coup