The Economist - USA (2020-05-16)

36 TheEconomistMay 16th 2020

1

I

t was notwhat fishermen usually mean

by a good catch. Last month a worker at a

fish factory in Tema, a port city in Ghana,

infected 533 people with the virus behind

covid-19. President Nana Akufo-Addo

linked the “super-spreader” to about 10% of

the country’s 5,408 cases.

That Ghana could identify the person is

a tribute to its response. It has tested more

than 155,000 people, the fourth-highest

per-person rate in Africa, according to data

from cdcAfrica, a public-health body. Else-

where a lack of testing makes it harder to

assess the true course of the disease. But

what data there are, and new analysis by

the World Health Organisation (who), sug-

gest the virus is spreading more slowly in

Africa than elsewhere—and that its path

will vary across the continent.

Africa, which contains about 17% of the

world’s population, has less than 2% of its

confirmed cases of covid-19. By May 13th

cdcAfrica had counted 69,947 cases and

2,410 deaths. Over the past month reported

cases have doubled roughly every two

weeks. Until recently American cases were

doubling about every three days.

This may partly reflect insufficient test-

ing. Africa has checked just over 1m peo-

ple—a day’s work for officials in Wuhan.

South Africa and Ghana account for nearly

half. The Partnership for Evidence-Based

Response to Covid-19, a public-health con-

sortium, notes that “the true number of in-

fections is likely to be much greater than

currently known.” Its rough estimate sug-

gests a tally eight times higher.

Another sign of undercounting is the

share of covid-19 tests coming back posi-

tive. The “test-positivity-rate” is an imper-

fect guide. But assuming those being tested

have covid-like symptoms, a rate above

5-10% suggests there are many uncounted

cases, says Jason Andrews of Stanford Uni-

versity. At least 22 African countries have

rates above 10%, including Algeria (91%),

Sudan (87%) and Tanzania (78%).

John Magufuli, Tanzania’s president,

does not believe his country’s results. “We

only see them releasing positive, positive,

positive results,” he said. He claims that the

national laboratory was sent papaya, goat

and sheep samples that tested positive.

(The lab denies this.) No new official data

have been released since April 29th.

Opposition activists and ngos say that

there have been dozens of burials of co-

vid-19 victims in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s

largest city. On May 12th the American em-

bassy said that hospitals there were “over-

whelmed”. “It is a cover-up,” says Zitto Kab-

we, an opposition leader.

There are similar reports of undocu-

mented surges in other countries. In Kano,

in northern Nigeria, hundreds of un-

explained deaths have been alleged by

gravediggers. In Mogadishu, the capital of

Somalia, medics claim that the deaths they

are seeing do not chime with official totals.

Nevertheless there are few signs that

these “ghost hotspots” are ubiquitous.

Some countries, including Mauritius, Na-

mibia and the Seychelles, have not report-

ed a new case for two weeks. Ethiopia,

Rwanda and Uganda have fewer than 700

cases between them and positive-test rates

below 1%. Nor are there reports of surges.

“In a society like ours there’s simply no way

this could be kept secret,” says Berhanu

Nega, an Ethiopian opposition leader.

Crucial in slowing the early spread of

covid-19 was the swift introduction of con-

tainment measures. Most African coun-

tries implemented lockdowns far earlier

than rich countries did. By the end of April

at least 42 African countries had done so; 38

of these were in place for at least 21 days.

So despite undercounting, official data

Covid-19 in Africa

The long game

JOHANNESBURG

Why the pandemic seems to spread more slowly in Africa

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