The Economist - USA (2020-05-16)

The EconomistMay 16th 2020 Middle East & Africa 37

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are still a rough reflection of reality in

many countries, say those leading the re-

sponse. “While covid-19 likely won’t spread

as exponentially in Africa as it has else-

where in the world, it likely will smoulder

in transmission hotspots,” says Matshidiso

Moeti, the director for the whoin Africa.

Her view of a slower, longer pandemic is

explained in a paper by whocolleagues,

published by bmj Global Healthon May

14th. Unlike other models, which tend to

apply patterns seen elsewhere in the world

to Africa, theirs claims to make assump-

tions based on the continent’s “unique so-

cio-ecological context”. For example, it

takes into account the fact that Africans

travel less, thanks to sparse road networks.

The authors reckon that without con-

tainment measures 16-26% of those in the

who Africa region would be infected in the

first year, with higher shares in well-con-

nected countries like South Africa. About

29m-44m people would be symptomatic.

This is a lower estimate than other models

yield. The who also calculates that there

would be 83,000–190,000 deaths without

mitigating steps—implying a lower rate of

infected people dying than in rich coun-

tries, mostly because Africans are younger.

However, Africa does not have rich coun-

tries’ hospitals. Surges in cases would over-

whelm health systems.

Because the model assumes no mitigat-

ing measures such as lockdowns, the actu-

al tallies should be lower. Yet many African

governments are in the midst of loosening

restrictions, as they try to balance the harm

of covid-19 with that to their economies

and public health more broadly. Research-

ers at Imperial College London reckon that

in some countries the knock-on effects on

treatment for hiv, tband malaria could be

of the same order of magnitude, in terms of

years of life lost, as that of covid-19.

Many rich countries are easing lock-

downs after reaching, in theory, peaks in

new cases. African countries may be doing

so while case-rates accelerate. Africa seems

to be suffering a slower pandemic, but the

risks are still immense. 7

Behind the curve

Covid-19, confirmed cases, 2020, log scale

Source:JohnsHopkins

UniversityCSSE

*MiddleEastandnorth Africa

†To6amGMT May 14th

Europe

10,000,000

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May†

United States

MENA* Sub-SaharanAfrica

Asia

Americas

S

trongmen tend to find election ob-

servers rather a nuisance. The sharper-

eyed ones make trickery harder to get away

with. Which is why autocrats see an upside

to covid-19. These days, even the nosiest

monitors are disinclined to travel.

Alpha Condé, Guinea’s president, has

taken full advantage of the pandemic. On

March 22nd he pressed ahead with a parlia-

mentary vote he had postponed four times

before. The coronavirus was apparently

not a good enough reason to warrant a fifth

delay. Foreign observers, who had previ-

ously raised concerns about possible tam-

pering with the electoral register, stayed

away, as did the opposition, who declared a

boycott. Mr Condé’s ruling party’s share of

seats in parliament duly rose to more than

two-thirds. Because the president also

slipped in a referendum on relaxing term

limits, Guineans may now enjoy his rule

until 2032, when he will be 94.

President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi

is similarly determined not to let the virus

stop his people having their say. Burundi-

ans will crowd into polling stations on May

20th to choose a new president and parlia-

ment. Most observers are planning to stay

away, which suits Mr Nkurunziza just fine.

Nonetheless, 12 days before the election his

government took no chances, telling the

East African Community that any monitors

it might still think of sending would have

to spend 14 days in quarantine.

Mr Nkurunziza has been less strict

when it comes to protecting his own peo-

ple from the virus. Beyond quarantining

observers, his regime has imposed few re-

strictions. Bars, restaurants and churches

remain open. Burundi has been the only

African country to continue top-tier foot-

ball. Games were suspended on April 13th,

but only so that stadiums could be used for

campaign rallies. Fixtures will resume the

day after the poll. “The coronavirus is kill-

ing people everywhere else,” said General

Evariste Ndayishimye, the party apparat-

chik the president has chosen to succeed

him. He told supporters not to worry: “Do

not be afraid. God loves Burundi.”

Opposition types are less keen on the

absence of monitors. Agathon Rwasa, Bu-

rundi’s foremost opposition candidate,

suggests that many abuses are now going

undocumented. His supporters are being

intimidated. Several have been attacked,

arrested or even murdered. He also com-

plains that the electoral commission has

not published voter lists, which makes

them easier to manipulate.

Given that the commission is almost

entirely made up of members of the ruling

cndd-fdd, election officials are under no

pressure to listen to Mr Rwasa. Besides,

many opposition supporters may never get

the chance to cast their ballots anyway. Vot-

er cards are doled out by local chiefs. As

these also all belong to thecndd-fdd, they

NAIROBI

The pandemic offers cover for ballot-dodgers

Elections 1

We don’t need no observation